jaxjagman
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Everything posted by jaxjagman
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Think it's to early to tell.That would be something else if Nina came back again.There never have been trips,just a couple back to back Ninas,since 1950 anyways http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php
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NMME/IMME is showing Nina lasting into late spring/early summer Nina has probably just about peaked or has by the looks with warmer waters trying to build up in the depths on the ETA.The last several days there has been some warming in region 1+2.CPC/IRI shows a 50% chance of the ENSO being neutral next fall and possibly into next winter. The BOM thinks Nina will hang on a bit later, Weak La Niña continues over the Pacific A weak La Niña pattern continues in the tropical Pacific. This event is likely to be at or near its peak, with most models suggesting this La Niña will end during the southern autumn. Sea surface temperatures currently show a clear La Niña pattern, with coolest waters concentrated in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Likewise, some atmospheric indicators such as trade winds and cloudiness also show a clear La Niña signal. However, a continuing build-up of warmer water beneath the surface of the western Pacific is a likely precursor to the end of this event. In order for 2017–18 to be classed as a La Niña year, thresholds need to be exceeded for at least three months. Most climate models surveyed by the Bureau suggest this event is likely to last through the southern summer, and decay in the early southern autumn of 2018, so these thresholds are likely to be met. La Niña typically brings above average rainfall to eastern Australia during summer, particularly in northern New South Wales and Queensland. However, a weak La Niña will have less influence on Australian rainfall than a strong event. La Niña events can also increase the likelihood of prolonged warm spells for southeast Australia. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. IOD events are unable to form between December and April.
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I like severe season also.The only set back to me looks like if there is a SSW event that would throw a wrench in it,but i dont see it right now.Some signs of downwelling into Feb,not sure it will work out,even if if did it could even go on the wrong side and benefit severe season.The Equatorial temp anomaly is already showing some warm areas trying to upwell even east of the IDL,So we basically have seen Nina peak,if it holds on a few more weeks.Severe season looks good to me,especially early season.We should have one more cold snap first of Feb.,then games on ,what it looks to me right now
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Meant to post back sooner.When i get back from Chicago i will do this.But you need to help out this time as well with other posters here,this is really time consuming,and i know others can chime in which would benefit the thread as well.We have some good posters here now and it's growing.So everyone should chime in from time to time with thoughts
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These are just predictions based on models into late winter into spring.It's not rare various sites fine tune their EMS in the winter time here.There is no threat of severe weather upcoming with the cold established at this time
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Looks like an early severe threat into the Valley and possibly later on into the spring time.Enso looks like a transition from a more Nina pattern into a more Nino pattern in the summer,could be a crap year into the plains the way it looks right now.Either way winter time into spring time is showing some potential as it looks right now
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i keep reading this thread and get more hungry every time..lol
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Tornado Outbreaks Data http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/outbreaks/ -
Joe Renken and Josh Herman Bearing Sea Blog http://beringsearule.blogspot.com/p/bsr-forecast-maps.html http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/bsr/ http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclimate/trends/1516/index.html
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Another tool from the NCDA.Using Lawrenceburg as an example when the F5 hit there back in 1998 It's easier to put on all events for what state and county you use http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/stormevents/choosedates.jsp?statefips=47%2CTENNESSEE# Edit:The F5 in Lawrenceburg could have been much worse than anyone could have imagined.Adjacent to it's path was the city Ethridge which is home to one of the largest Amish communities in the state of Tn,luckily it just went through the fields basically.As most people know,Amish builds their own homes and basically they never would have known what could have been without electricity or any source of communication.
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Storm Data AND UNUSUAL WEATHER PHENOMENA WITH LATE REPORTS AND CORRECTIONS http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/sd/sd.html
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https://www.windyty.com/?clouds,36.067,-86.748,4 Another fun tool to play with
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http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/46379-sharppy/ Chinook posted the link to the beta SHARPpy,much easier to use than the older version
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Welcome Olhausen
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Welcome to the board
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http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/tornado/index.html Experimental Tornado (F1+) Probability Forecasts Based on GEFS Reforecasts, Version 2
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/soundingclimo/ SPC added a sounding climatology page
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/nav.html beta test
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Tidbits has added the Parallel GFS http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsp/
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Frost advisory
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http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/ Tropical tidbits added the Euro and EPS
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Good job Stovepipe !!
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It's funny last year at this time our grass was patches of brown and green with mostly brown.This season our grass is the best i've see it in years,green and thick.The fire flies also are the most i've seen in years also.
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Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
New Year's Eve & New Year's Day 1963-1964 Snowstorm Bobby Boyd Meteorologist National Weather Service Nashville, Tennessee It's been nearly 50 years since Nashville has accumulated 10 inches of snow from a single storm. The last time it happened was on New Year's Eve in 1963 and continued into New Year's Day 1964. Nashville measured 10.2 inches of snowfall while areas across southern Middle Tennessee totaled upwards of 16 inches. this was the largest snowfall in Nashville since 15.0 inches fell on February 21st 1929. A cold airmass was already in place when a wave developed on a surface front in the central Gulf of Mexico on December 30th 1963. The surface wave quickly developed into a low pressure area and moved northeast across Florida spreading a wide area of precipitation northward. Snow fell in Middle Tennessee in the overnight hours of New Year's Eve and into New Year's Day 1963-64. Some areas of northwest Alabama received 20 inches of snow. On the afternoon of December 29th 1963 cold arctic air pushed southward toward the Gulf Coast. Supported by a 1040 mbar high over the northern Plains and by very strong northerly flow aloft from Canada to Texas, the cold air plunged across the Gulf of Mexico south of latitude 25 degrees by midday of December 30th. With an upper-level ridge moving inland on the West Coast and a large amplitude cold trough over the Mississippi River Valley, the stage was set for heavy snowfall over the Southern states. Clues to a developing weather system were evident on the evening of December 30th, as the 500 mbar height falls over extreme south Texas accompanied by unusually cold air indicated an intensification of the trough or the formation of a low center near the Gulf Coast. The 500 mbar trough sharpened during the night as very cold air began moving over an area already under the influence of a noticeable speed divergence pattern from Lake Charles to Nashville. By evening on December 31st the upper-level chart showed a well organized cold low centered over southern Mississippi. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ohx&storyid=96629&source=0 Might take a mi or 2 to load up -
Historic Tennessee Valley Cold, Snow, and Ice Events
jaxjagman replied to Carvers Gap's topic in Tennessee Valley
22) "SOUTHEASTERN SNOWSTORM OF 2011" January 10-13, 2011 This Gulf Coast storm interacted with a very cold air mass that was situated all the way into the Gulf Coastal region. This rare set up resulted in a large swath of nearly 1-foot snow accumulations from Northern Texas through the Gulf States, including portions Arkansas and Tennessee. Interior portions of the Carolinas into the Appalachian Mountains received 1-2 feet of snow. Some sleet and freezing rain also mixed in across these areas to create significant travel and power outage issues. The storm hooked up the East coast where it intensified, bringing a general 1-3 feet of snow along the Eastern seaboard. Although minor snow accumulations in the Southeast U.S. during the winter months are not unexpected, the areal coverage and magnitude of snow accumulations made this a historic storm. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/mkx/?n=biggestsnowstorms-us
