dendrite

I mean it could be IC. This is probably the best example I could find on YT with parhelia Learn where the coldest rad spots in your area are and which ones are the quickest to fog out. You were on a lake so that’s probably a good spot. What was the temp there?

Looks like definite sleet to me on soundings.

ICE deployed

Yeah it’s hard to say. It should be little tiny ice crystals filling the low levels that are almost suspended. The vid did look like snow crystals…a few looked pretty large. Was the whole layer full of them like fog or did you just see them in a certain area? You can definitely get flakes out of a chimney if it’s cold enough too. I’ve seen flakes falling out of light steam fog off the river here where it’s -10° or colder. You should be able to see halos and sundogs through the diamond dust too since it’s essentially a cirrus cloud at ground level. When you see it for real the first time you know it. I’m not saying you didn’t experience true dd here, but I can’t exactly tell from the vid.

Ha. GL with that

lol…looks like it’s snowing out of the condensation from the chimney

It’s an H8 warm nose in a SWFE. It’s not something I would immediately toss.

What are we excited about here

Why is Ditty so shook?

“Only” -39° for Tower….still waiting on Embarrass.

It’s still -20° in Flint. Wtf

3k was more amplified too

Got a zoomed out vid toward the east side with the sun?

Let’s keep cranking that convection in the south. Lots of latent heating being released from the ZR too.

There isn’t a lot of science in kuchera. It’s just based on the premise that the colder the max temp in the column is, the higher the ratio will be. But there’s a point where it goes too far the other end…especially in a setup like this where the low levels are so cold. It sorta assumes normal lapse rates in a storm and not something inverted. Usually a temp of 15-20° is a sweetspot here for mid level temps in the DGZ. But if the column is sitting at 5° or colder all the way up it just keeps assuming ratios are getting higher and higher. -18°C in the growth zone is the bottom limit for dendritic crystal habit. -20°C and colder you start getting bullets that are small and accumulate more densely. Yet if you look at the estimated kuchera ratios in Canada with -30C throughout the column it tries to paint 50:1.

That isn’t 10:1 either. That’s a built in snow total the HRRR puts out

Sleet from the mid levels and snow from the salt nuclei in the low levels?

So what did I have here last night? House cat or bobcat?

Just use the 10:1 and we can all just add 50% to it.

Brimson, MN COOP just came in with -43°

-6/-16

It’s weird wording to me. H5 was always going to slot with the trough to the west. I assume they mean H7, but it was always an isentropic push anyway…the saturated column is cold so it’s all snow below the relatively warmer nose. Unless they’re worried about Monday not panning out with northerly bumps.

IR is always a nice way to pinpoint the weenie cold spots.

I don’t quite understand the dryslot concerns for up here?

There’s a clear qpf gradient along the MA border up to here. We may risk some coastal front exhaust too.