dendrite

Someday Wow will fix it

There has to be an initialization issue right? Even the 3k completely lost it at 12.

I had 142 2/3” in 07-08

Agree 100%. If we’re calling these models “guidance”…it definitely guided us along the correct path more than the others did. But I think it does matter come go time. I don’t put a lot of faith in most of the hires mesos (I think I made that clear the other day) so there was a point close in where the GFS was on an island compared to the other globals wrt NW extent. I was expecting it to meet consensus so it was no big deal to me, but for those believing it religiously on the northern edge got a bad surprise on 00z 23rd.

I get it…don’t take offense, but I think sometimes you get a little self centric. We all get boned. Any single one of us rarely jackpots. There’s this narrative that I steal big events up here, but I have 2 events where I’ve gotten 20” or more in the 20 years I’ve been here. 21” in Jan 11 and the 34” in Dec 20. Otherwise, I rack up the 10-15” type events. I asked you the other day how many 20”+ events you’ve had since EUSWX started. I’m going to guess more than 2 and I know you had that 30” burger where the NWS didn’t have you in the final PNS. I guess my point is that we would all have more if things trended more our way. Considering the BOS total and what S NH did, I don’t feel like you were that screwed. It was just the part of the gradient of the storm. Just my $0.02…not trying to instigate.

Yeah like that ^^^^^^

If it was rain down there he’d be posting multiple emojis.

Dude is mehing because SoP is getting more

I think this one has more legs. Like Will said, it doesn’t necessarily mean tulips all of the time at the surface, but there’s probably going to be some big pack melt in one way or another.

Another overperforming S flow clipper down there.

lol I think you’re beating me. Not sure what you mean by the last part though…you get what you get.

Sure. I think both of our posts are true. But it played major catch up the other day too. It was just consistently on the most northern side of guidance.

The GFS has done a good job at having the best idea from the medium range into the short range before making a little jump toward other guidance near go time.

Latest HRRR modeled snowfall…fwiw

9.7° -SN Good growth

The thing is PVD measures snow pack water equivalent daily at 18z. In the METAR look for the 933rrr remark code which is reported in tenths of inches. The problem is they presumably lost 1.4” of liquid in the pack from 18z Mon (during +SN) to 18z yesterday. 22nd 1.5” 23rd 4.1” (+2.6”) 24th 2.7” (-1.4”) If you’re going to roll with 38” then at least 2.6” w.e. plus whatever the ASOS recorded after that makes a good estimate. KPVD 221751Z 08009KT 10SM OVC025 01/M04 A3011 RMK AO2 SLP195 4/005 933015 T00061039 10011 21011 56019 $ KPVD 231751Z COR 36028G40KT 1/4SM +SN BLSN FZFG VV007 M04/M05 A2928 RMK AO2 PK WND 36040/1751 SLP914 SNINCR 4/37 P0003 60017 4/037 933041 T10391050 11006 21039 53003 RVRNO $ KPVD 241751Z 33010G18KT 10SM FEW020 FEW250 M01/M12 A2977 RMK AO2 SLP081 4/032 933027 T10111117 11011 21050 58005

Nah he’s primed and ready to dry my well this spring.

Nah. We up here.

I was worried about dry air lurking to the north most of the week as the confluence from that s/w backing in from ME was slow to lift out. Sunday morning I just knew it was going to be a problem when I saw how much the dry air was putting up a fight with the cloud cover.

I did release a balloon of helium, and lo, much to mine astonishment, after tracking southwestward o’er Elmer’s tannery a mere 200 rods hence, the thing did change course and return o’er my own abode, shrinkin’ to a size o’ a bee in the heavens.

SW flow aloft yes. It was N-NE flow at the surface. But in the knickers days they wouldn’t have really known the difference between a coastal and a strong overrunning event like 1/25 unless someone had access to a barometer and pressure readings in the region.

Does someone actually hang around CPK all day to measure?

Yeah I ignored the bad data.

If they cleared for the 18z ob (idk what they do there but I assume there’s a contract observer) they may have lost any additional due to melting/melting on contact by the time they measured again. I think the temp climbed from 31-33 in that period and eventually to 34 by 00z.