dendrite

18z gefs mean is east with it like the op.

If you want some tiebreakers, the 12z ggem, 12z ukie, and 18z rgem all held it back over the Great Lakes as well.

So yeah…H5 comparison valid 6z Sunday. We want the PV back toward Mackinac Island…not the QB/ON border. EC > NAM > GFS > ICON

Yeah see my post above…COD had some issues. Looks like COD has been doing this for awhile too. I had been using Pivotal more. Maybe Piv has better smoothing of the datapoints.

Actually it may be a COD mapping issue?

That GFS run looks wildly f’ed up. Almost like it didn’t run correctly. There’s all kinds of wtf with the PV and vorticity.

The beam is too high for western NH and like I’ve said before, the GYX siting is going to hell with trees. View ENX to see what’s west of us, but just remember when the flow flips westerly, the enhanced upslope over VT/W MA won’t make it out way. I think we’re good until about 10pm with varying intensity.

It’s still all the way back to Albany. It goes til midnight.

Maybe another 0.10-0.15” to go too. So 1-2” on top of this.

27.5° -SN 3/4”

Snowing pretty well now. 27.2°

Reminting pennies

25.2° -SN Working on another tenth.

8hrs of Christmas rain. Enjoy.

3k looks like 1”+ here. We both ride that ptype line though.

Some of the lousier runs try to spawn a norlun in the GOM. Exciting.

It’ll verify here as variably cloudy and 38°

21.0° overcast Had 0.1” overnight…racking up those tenths

This would be lol though

Just spitballing here, but even if that SE ridge starts cycling like JB, that temp gradient may be close by and we could pull off some overrunning events…obviously CAD spots would be favored for more glop. So even though I like to poke the embers with d16 op maps of +20C 850s it doesn’t mean I’m calling for it and that we can’t get some wintry weather. Maybe a reshuffling of the deck would work in everyone’s favor.

6z GFS brings the 591dm ridge back.

So the 00z euro was weaker (a little more open) with the SPV and further south with it than other runs. To my eyes, it tries to squash the shortwave and it ends up more of an elongated, sheared mess as it reaches the northeast. The better runs have kept the SPV a hair further north with a few closed contours and that shortwave dives under more intact, they do a little fuji, and then we get the good punch of dPVA curling near SNE as the SPV merges in behind it. As Ray said, this is all happening at high speed. But there’s a lot going on in the arctic with these pieces over the next 24hrs before they start to separate themselves and become more clean cut. People get pissed at the models, but it doesn’t take much of a change upstream 96hrs out to throw things out of whack.

They always look like an ensemble product to me beyond 24-48hrs.

Yeah that’s pretty much the perfect way to describe it. This thing has always had a lower ceiling, but I wouldn’t shut the door on something minor yet.