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dendrite

Administrator / Meteorologist
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Everything posted by dendrite

  1. Yeah EPS AI keeps the lower heights further west too.
  2. These can be deals where you get a big fronto band on the northern edge (convergence/stretching of parcels) so I wouldn’t count us out yet.
  3. Pic for reference. I’m not going to pretend to know what’s right…but I’d prefer the least confluent option possible.
  4. At d6 the EC op has a PV lobe over James Bay and a lot more suppression of the flow over our region. AI has a more consolidated, closed PV near the southern MB/ON border. That allows for more ridging over New England and room for the system to creep up the coast. I think we’re playing with heartache up here, but there’s a shot.
  5. Just saw the longer BOX loop on CoD. Looks like it may have been over you for a bit?
  6. Nice obs guys. Hopefully some outages down there later.
  7. Spreading his seed like the dandelions in my backyard.
  8. Don’t they have the heating elements under the field?
  9. That’s why I like them more for the extended and mid range. Granted that was an AI ens to begin with, but even with the “op” AI I’m still hesitant to use use them close in except for trends. Yeah, the coarseness tightens up as we get closer, but it hasn’t been to regular op gradients. But it’s a new tool and we’re all figuring out how to use it.
  10. Last 4 runs of the AIFS ENS for the 18z-18z period beginning today. Not that any model has done well, but do we consider this a good performance?
  11. Good catch. They were having an issue with the precip maps of the CMC products awhile back.
  12. Some of the mesos are still good down there. We just don’t know.
  13. GFS a little tick east again too. May not get much more than a few tenths here with the inv trough.
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