dendrite

https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/NARR/1987.html Kinda strange it was number 1

Some big ‘uns there

Could there possibly be a better meteorologist name for someone at NWS NYC than Anthony Gigi?

CIPS has that #3 and Boxing Day 2010 #2

Looks completely stacked to me at 114hr off HSE. But if we could get the system to crawl more north than east we could wrap some good midlevel WAA in from the SE.

Some of that is going to be real. The sfc low goes nuclear down south and the system tries to stack while attempting to form a secondary on the triple point…but we lose the upper dynamics up here to help the sfc pressure falls. I’m still intrigued to some extent for up here.

Difference was Jan 2000 had that trailing shortwave phase in and pull the whole system back. As of right now none of the modeled shortwaves want to play that game.

Some similarities

Man that vort is digging for oil off of Savannah. Kinda has that look like it would throw back a massive deformation band like Jan 2000

Spit or swallow?

I want ozone over Orleans

There’s regular synoptic scale diffluence and then you get upper jetstreak dynamics where you get smaller scale divergence in the poleward exit and equatorward entrance region of the jetstreak. A lot of our bigger storms have 2 jetstreaks with their regions of divergence coupled together.

From a PV thinking perspective…a big tightly curled PV anomaly digging through the carolinas. The diffluent area on the PV gradient sits right over the baroclinic zone…so yeah, you’d expect sfc pressure falls off the VA/NC coast which the GFS has. And yeah, I know you’re using a GEFS mean.

I kinda like those trailing shortwaves closer this run…give it a bit of a kick north to keep it from spinning and rotting down south.