SACRUS

Transitioned from a Southern California style weather to a Florida like one has begun with much more humid flow developing today. Western Atlantic Ridge builds west over the area Sat (6/26) - early July with the highest heat/humidity looking like Mon (6/28) Thu (7/1). Storms likely popup routinely each day, similar to Florida, but the heat is on. Mid / upper 90s in the hotter spots. Beyond there split with the ECM and GFS in the W Atlantic Ridge shifting east in the 7/2 - 7/5 period. GFS maintains strong ridge with trough. and subsequent front much further west into the Ohio valley/ GL. ECM has the W Atlantic ridge moving east and torugh closing off and passing through the area 7/2 - 7/5. Beyond there it looks to return to a warmer to hot flow. Right now a compromise between the GFS and ECM may be best with the ridge holding the trough back towards PA/OH.

Thanks. Funny timing on the reply at the same time. Looks like 1933 / 1911 were also perhaps like 2013 type short but strong heat. 22 the exception. This year looks poised to join the bunch. Perhaps long duration as well.

Do we have any monthly summaries from those earlier summers 33,22,11,00? Jun - Jul - Aug averages.

9 days away. 12z guidance ECM would imply cut off and rain Jul 2-3 before clearing on the 4th and warming up the rest of the week. GFS has the cut off further into the Ohio valley much more west than the ECM. its a matter of the western atlantic ridge pulsing and if the front is stuck west or closes off and slides east into the area. Right now looking warm and potentially stormy but id side more with the gfs or middle ground with worst of the steady rains west of the area,

I think we looking at mid 90s next week perhaps 97 or so at EWR. We'll see how it trends but could be some clouds and storms fairly routinely. Mean while back at the ranch - just a truly nice day today 75 and sunny at 1:20

California weather one last day before we head to a Florida-like pattern tomorrow. The season of Western Atlantic Ridge is coming. ECM / GFS have a very warm S/SW flow through their runs and what should see pieces of the western heat factory merge east in the later part of the runs. It looks to transition warm to humid Friday and Saturday and pending on clouds and storms some 90s starting Saturday (6/26). Sun (6/27) - Thu (7/1) low to mid 90s 850 temps surging to >18c Tue (6/29) / Wed (6/30). With such a humid flow storms can popup each day. Way beyond the pattern looks to remain warm to hot into early July including the 4th of July weekend.

48 hours of California like weather before Miami pattern arrives. Dry, sunny and very nice out mid 70s to near 80 today (wed) and Thu (6/24). Transition to a more southerly / humid flow and warmer temperatures. Western Atlantic Ridge builds back west 6/27 into July. Humid and warm - hot a times. 90s potential 6/28 into July. Increased rain / storms chances in a Miami style pattern. Way beyond it continues to look overall warm to hot as the W Atalntic Ridge looks to grow along the east coast, need to watch as pieces of the western heat migrate east and merge with the eastern ridge.

Jul 14 - Jul 21 , 2013 saw 7 days of mid 90s - low 100s in the area. That expansion saw the ridge push to 600DCM into the area.

Time to start looking way out there into the July 4th Holiday weekend ECM : showing a warm/humid pattern in the D10 and beyond as the W Atlantic Ridge is still pushing heights up along the east coast. GFS : shows a bit less ridging and hing up front near by. Have to watch the Rockies Ridge heat pulsing east and the Western Atlantic Ridge building west and merging in the first half of July. Right now looking warm and humid

78 and sunny but that will be short lived as clouds and rain move in over the next couple of hours. Cold front clear out and we setup a gorgeous couple of days Wed (6/23) and Thu (6/24) sunny dry and mid to upper 70s. The season of the Western Atlantic Ridge. ECM emphatic of westward expanding ridge pushing up a south/southwest flow and higher heights in the Fri 6/26 - early Jul. Warming 850s should offer the chance at 90 or low 90s and high humidity 6/28 - early July. Rockies ridge and heat factory is rolling and pieces of that heat can get connected with the Western Atlantic Ridge as we head into July. With the humidity and ridge pushing along the EC, storms will fire similar to a Miami-style pattern and front hung up west of the area.

Maybe Uncle or Don may have the 1933, 1922, 1911, and 1900 stats for the NYC area to see how past (before) 44 .

6/21 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 LGA: 87 BLM: 86 NYC: 86 ACY: 85 JFK: 81 ISP: 79

6/21 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 90 PHL: 89 TEB: 88 TTN: 87 LGA: 87 BLM: 86 NYC: 86 ACY: 85 JFK: 81 ISP: 79

6/20 EWR: 91 PHL: 90 ACY: 88 BLM: 88 TTN: 88 New Brnswck: 88 TEB: 87 NYC: 86 LGA: 87 JFK: 83 ISP: 82

Today should see more sunshine than Saturday and more widespread 90s, in some cases day 2 of a 3 day potential short heatwave. More of the same on Monday with some of the warmer places perhaps hitting the mid 90s with enough clearing and 850MB temps >18c. Cold front will bring storms on Tuesday (6/22) with drier/ more normal temps Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24). Beyond there Miami weather on southerly winds as the Western Atlantic RIdge builds west Fri (6/25) - end of June extending along the coast. Need to see the placement and how far westward this can expand. Should it not come as west it will be a very wet, humid period. Right now iECM is pushing the ridge far enough west that areas west see most of the rain associated with a sort of hung up front. July - looking in the way beyond longer range guidance has the front clearing the coast with heights rebuilding into the East. That rockies ridge may fire back up and we will need to see the next pulse west of the Western Atlantic Ride. Overall warm / humid pattern that can put up decent rain amounts on scattered storms (Miami like)

6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87

6/19 EWR: 93 LGA: 91 PHL: 90 BLM: 89 TEB: 89 JFK: 89 NYC: 88 New Brnswck: 88 ISP: 88 ACY: 88 TTN: 87

Back to the heat and humidity for a three day interlude. Places that can get into enough sunshine between clouds and showers/storms will get to 90s Sat. Sun - Mon look drier. Where its sunny for any long duration could see mid 90s. Cooler air arrive as a front moves through later on Tuesday (6/22). Wed (6/23) - Thu (6/24) look similar to this past Wed/Thu dry and very nice/comfortabkle.. Southerly flow brings the warmth and humidity as the Western Atlantic ridge builds west likely from Fri (2/5) - end of June. Need to watch any hung up front which looks west of the area but should the ridge not extend too far west that hung up front could be east near the area. Need to watch any trends on guidance. As we get into July still looks overall warm with heights rising into the east and need to see if the W Atlantic Ridge can merge with the Rockies / Plains ridge.

Great stretch of weather will turn warmer today. Sat - Tue warm to hot with potential 90s, especially Sat (6/19) - Mon (6/21). Clouds and some storms may get in the way of 90s on Saturday but Sun and Mon look to get there in a widespread fashion. Tropical remnants looks to be near the area by Tuesday (6/22) ahead of a cold front. Wed (6/23) - Fri (6/25) next week look similar to Thu, cooler and dry and very nice before the humid/ southerly flow backs in as the Western Atlantic ridge pushes west. 6/25 - the end of June warm/humid with front near stationary west of the area. Need to watch this feature as should the ridge not build far enough west, that front could get hung up along the coast otherwise a bit of Miami into the area to end June Way beyond there as we head towards July, guidance shows more higher heights into the east, kind of an overall warm pattern.

71/51 at 1000. Just splendid out.

Gorgeous evening down to 56 and a remarkable stretch of weather the next 2 days. Pieces of some of the massive Rockies and southwest heat will head east and pending on clouds and storms offer the next shot at 90s on Saturday (6/19) and Sun 6/20. Monday (6/21) may be more cloudy and stormy ahead of any tropical remnants tracking into the region. Beyond there 6/24 and on it looks like east coast ridging builds back and potentially hooks with the Western Atlantic Ridge. Overall warm to hot June progresses.

0.31 in the bucket yesterday after a high of 82. Tremendous stretch of weather the next 4 days, mostly sunny and warm (seasonal). Saturday depending on storms and clouds brings the next shot of 90. Heat factory into the Rockies and the southwest deserts producing many records early in the season. Pieces of that heat will expand east into the the middle of next week. ECM more adamant with ridging by the middle and end of next week 6/24.

Cooldown dailies 6/11 EWR: 73/65 (-2) JFK: 71/61 (-3) NYC: 69/62 (-4) LGA: 68/62 (-6) TTN: 65/58 )-7) 6/12 TTN: 73 / 61 (-3) LGA: 71/63 (-4) NYC: 69/62 (-5) EWR: 72 / 65 (-5) JFK: 69/ 59 (-6) 6/13 NYC: 76 / 62 (-2) LGA : 77/ 63 (-2) TTN: 76/59 (-2) EWR: 78 / 59 (-3) JFK: 72 / 58 (-5)

4thday of mainly cloudy conditions. Rain showers and storms pm and Tue AM. Cooler / Drier and sunny conditions on Wed and Thu before warmer air build in for this weekend. Rockies ridge heat factory manufacturing the heat out west. Pieces of that heat will slide east around the ridge with Sat could see temps approach 90(s). Beyond there we are continuing to see models show the Western Atlantics ridge building west in the 6/22 period producing a humid , hot flow. Step up to warmer 6/19 and perhaps more sustained warmth and heat chances 6/22 - and beyond. Warm to hot June overall.

ECM has 850 temps >18C building into the upper MW/ GL by next Saturday again. It May be a 5 - 7 day break before theyre back into the frying pan perhaps shunted south a bit from the prior record heat. We'll see if we can see that spill east Fathersday and the week of 6/21.