SACRUS
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After a fabulous fourth its a trip back into the frying pan after today. Today a splendid summery day sunshine (outside some high smoke) and highs in the mid and upper 80s. Frying pan Tue and Wed as piece of the western heat spills east over the area. 850 temps >18c - 21C. Depending on smoke from the fires, as others have been discussin LGA and EWR and other spots could see the century mark Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7). Cue Sonny and Cher the Heat goes on. Watching the tropics and exact track of Elsi, some storms enhanced Thu and Fri (7/9). Otherwise very humid. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge comes back in the 7/10 and beyond 595 DM forecast along the coast by next Monday (7/12). Overall warm to hot, with routine storms (Florida - style) pattern marches on.
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a couple such occasions in the midst of that hot month. 2011 had one too but none stayed below 70 for highs EWR 7/2/1993: 74/68 (1.50) 7/26/1993: 76/68 (0.41) 7/3/2011: 76/72 (0.29)
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Much improved and its a quick transition back to a Florida-style pattern. Warmer today in out of clouds and periods of mostly sunny conditions should yield temps low 80s / 70s along the beaches. Slight chance of showers mainly after 5 PM as last piece of the ULL moves through, but i think its ok for fireworks and bbqs. Monday the 5th low to mid and perhaps a few stray upper 80s and flow goes wSW and we warm up. Tue (7/6) and Wed (7/7) SW flow and pieces of the western heat spilles east into the area, perhaps another shot at the century mark for EWR/LGA - likely an outside chance but very hot mid and upper 90s. Look for some storms Wed (7/7)evening. Thursday /more humid by way of ssw flow and pop up showers / storms but warm. Friday (7/9) and Saturday (7/10) looks stormy as Elsa tracks just south of the area and front is enhanced. Sunday 7/11 and beyond - Western Atltantic ridge expands back along the east coast with a similar projected / forecasted progression as was the case ahead of the late June (last week) ridge. Overall warm to hot but plenty of Florida-style humidity and storms.
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ULL counter clockwise rotation centered near Harrisburg PA https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif
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Cool / cloudy and damp next 24 - 36 hours. ULL moving through brining showers, pop storms and much cooler than normal highs. We'll see if we can get into enough clearing to exceed 69 and get into the 70s, otherwise places like EWR may be 35 - 40 degrees lower highs than Wed (6/30). Much improved conditions for the second part of the fourth of July weekend Sun the fourth and Monday the 5th. Sunday scattered rain / showers look mainly north and it looks partly to perhaps mostly sunny at times. Monday warmer SW flow returns with temperatures mid / upper 80s (warmer spots). Tue (7/6) - Wed (7/7) widespread 90s mid / upper (warmer spots) 850 temps >18c. Wed could see more storms towards the pm. All eyes on the tropics Thu (7/8) and Fri 7/9, depending on the track Florida-like weather steamy, hot and plenty of pop storms. Sat (710) - Season of the Western Atlantic ridge, as guidance is showing a similar progression, we will see how far westarward the expansion can get. Overall warm to hot and looking like almost daily storms.
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Check post below - cache issue that has been occurring for a while now.
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Trough looks to be centered over the GL/OV in the timeframe 7/8 - with the Western Atlantic Ridge just offshore, similar projection ahead of the late June expansion. You'll also see pieces of the strong heat out west bleeding east in periods, first 7/6 - 7/8 with 850 >18c and depending on clouds/storms mid / upper 90s those days.
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For some reason the other image is cached on the previous day (7/1) https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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You can see the ULL cutting off over Lake Erie and the hung up front over the area.
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Wed looks like 90s, pending on storms which all look to pop later on the day. Thu/Fri all contingent on Elsa track. Beyond that watch for the western atlatic ridge to build back later net week/weekend (7/10) and beyond.
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0.83 in the bucket. More clouds and rain today. ULL moves through later tonight into tomorrow. We'll see how low highs are tomorrow and see if we can get a 40 degree difference at EWR from Wed to Sat. Cloudy, wet and very unsettled on Saturday the 3rd of July. The Fourth of July is looking much better than previously forecasted earlier in the week and while it may not be completely rain free, most showers look light and scattered AM and some PM as the ULL fully lifts out. Period or breaks of sun should allow temps to rebound from the 60s saturday to mid/upper 70s. Jul 5th - Jul 9th - warm to hot and frequent evening storms another blast of Florida. 850 temps surge to >18c Tuesday (7/6) and Wed (7/7) only clouds / storms will hinder mid - upper 90s. Need to watch Elis Thu (7/8) and Fri (7/9) otherwise hot and humid and more late storms. Season of the Western Atlantic Ridge looking to return in the 7/10 and beyond as we see similar hints on the longer range guidance as we saw ahead of this past late June ridge. Overall warm to hot...
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Forecast coming into closer view and shorter range but still a bit unsettled. Saturday looking cloudy/cool with some light rain and scattered showers. Sunday looks improved but would not rule out stray lght showers/rain AM. improving greatly as the day goes on with breaks of sun. Back to the frying pan Monday for the fith (observed day)
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7/1 ACY: 91 EWR: 89 JFK: 88 BLM: 87 TEB: 87 ISP: 86 LGA: 86 New Brnswck: 86 PHL: 86 NYC: 84 TTN: 83
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Some breaks of sun the last hour, clouds and line of storms moving in , the next couple of hours.
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June Monthly Dep EWR: +3.8 LGA: +3.4 BLM: +3.2 NYC: +2.8 ISP" +2.2 TEB: +1.8 TTN: +1.6 JFK: +0.9
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Thanks liberty. 91 was the high, i hadnt seen the in between hours. Also - ISP was 89 not 90 and i adjusted that. JFK, Jun 9: 91
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Tue/ Wed 850 temps look >18c, pending on when clouds/storms may form could yield some mid to perhaps upper 90s.
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Western Atlantic Ridge slipping east and with it comes 2-3 days of storms and some heavy rains. Clouds about an hour to two away, storms coming in this PM and period of storms and rain next 48 - 72 hours should put up some nice totals. Saturday looks cloudy and much cooler where highs could be stuck in the 60s and in the extreme EWR 103 (Wed) and maybe mid 60s (Sat) a near 40 degree difference. Models still showing an unsettled Sunday morning but overall Fourth of July looks like light / widely scattered shower AM and then some in the evening. The last day of the of fourth of July weekend (Monday) starts a return to warmth and heat / humidity as heights come up. Piece of the western heat which the southwest / rockies heat dome pulses up, pushes east Jul 6 - 9, humidity returns as heights increase with more 90s likely. Tues and Wed look very hot. More widespread pop up storms Tue night (7/6) - Wed (7/7) and Thu (7/8) before we watch remnants or possibly intact Elois. Overall warm to hot pattern.
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Saturday high may be 40 degrees cooler than today
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That ridge may steer tropical antics towards the SE coast / Florida. Overall warm to hot continues. S
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12z ECM / GFS continue with theme of improving second haf of the weekend for the Fourth and Monday (observed). Still a bit unsettled Sun but looking like scattered showers earlier and improving throughout the day.
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6/30 EWR: 103 LGA: 100 NYC: 98 New Brnswck: 98 TEB: 98 BLM: 98 PHL: 97 TTN: 96 ACY: 94 JFK: 90 ISP: 90
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6/30 EWR: 103 LGA: 100 NYC: 98 New Brnswck: 98 TEB: 98 BLM: 98 PHL: 97 TTN: 96 ACY: 94 JFK: 90 ISP: 90
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Jul 17-18 2013: 97, 98 EDIT September , 8 2015: 97 96 in both 2015, 2016
