SACRUS

That transition to warm happened sooner than the 2016 shift but still feel 2016 offers good benchmark this summer . Made it up to 80 yesterday, clouds will likely get in the way at matching that but as the ridge shifted east on guidance and now chance at 90s (barring clouds) Wed (5/19) - Sat (5/22). Models push 850 temps to >16C by Thu and near 18c Fri and Sat before storms arrive. Beyond there looks like a cool down 5/23 - 5/26 then some more warmth to end the month. We'll see if we turn noticeably wetter from this dry period come June.

Moving the dial up from the 60s to the 70s starting today for some and Thu for most through next Tuesday. We'll have to see the position of the ridge and any onshore influence next week 5/18 - 5/21 but think some of the warmer spots will get to 80s as guidance brings in 850 temps 12C - 16C. Beyond there the last week from the 25th on of May could turn warmer and feature the seasons first heat but plenty of time to track that.

Looking like a nice stretch of dry / sunny weather Mon 5/10 - Thu 5/13 with temps increasing from the 60s to low 70 by Thu. Fri may see more clouds and rain before a stronger warmeup 5/18 - 5/20.

Next 10 days looking like mainly 60s, (50s tomorrow) and an outside chance that some of the warmer spots may touch 70 or low 70s Wed (5/12) or Thu (5/13). May 18 still looks like the start of a change to higher heights / warmer temps with the following week to 10 days (end of May) perhaps featuring the opportunity for strong warmth.

gorgeous day today despite being cooler

60's on six on replay the next 8 - 12 days. Temps generally in the 60s with cloudy/rainy days perhaps below 60 (Sat 5/8, Mon 5/10). Rain chances with nothing too heavy. 2016 progression still being advertised on the longer range guidance where the last week of May looks to turn much warmer and perhaps hot. Glad Don is also seeing this potential. May 18th may mark the start of the transition to a warmer period.

There is some clearing or breaks in the clouds nosing into EPA and SNJ, so perhaps some pokes of sun by 2PM

Despite the cool 20 days in 2016 the month as a whole winded up near normal. I think we may see a similar progression , almost like an April replay. But overall more cool or near normal days with persistent clouds looking likely though at least the 16th or so.

Looks like max temps <75 the next 12 days or so with a majority in the 60s, before guidance indicates a more w/sw flow in the May 18 period (long range). It is still looking more and more like a similar progression of 2016 May where the first two plus weeks were cooler than normal before the month ended much warmer.

81/64 here. 850s at >15C argued for quick surge with any duration of sunshine

72/62 getting humid. Sun is in/out

Sun starting to breakthrough here and up to 65

Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections. Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR. Not sure how much clearing we get though.

This may as currently modeled could see a similar progression to 2016 where the first 2 weeks plus featured days that were cooler than normal and generally had highs low low 70s or below. Then surge of heat by the 22nd or so.

Any breaks of sun tomorrow with duration should yield 80 or higher but it could stay cloudy with onshore east of the city. Beyond that May 4 - May 10 look close to normal overall before the next brief shot at 80+ May 11 - 12. Even Steven first half of may.

63 / cloudy and some light sporadic showers the next few hours.

Looks like a tendency for torugh to dig into the Plains/GL then pass through the NE May 7 - May 15. Kind of a back and forth 70s some 80s on the east side of the trough with S/SW flow then cooldown. Would suspect its wetter overall through the first two weeks of May. Before then shot at >80 Sunday 5/2 and Tue 5/4.

2021 predictions EWR: 38 - 40 LGA: 35 - 37 NYC: 24 - 26 New Brnswck: 38 - 40

Highs 4/28 EWR: 89 ACY: 89 New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 87 TEB: 86 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 NYC: 85 LGA: 83 ISP:74 JFK: 73

87 here , warmest since Sep 10 and maybe Sep 4th if we go warmer.

Very chilly airmass with 850 temps -5c to -10c on guidance April 21 - 23. Kind of a roller coaster bias cool the next week to 10 days. Window for any brief but stronger warmth may come on the 28-29 or 30th? Interestingly cooler without the big precip totals, cant imagine that lasts to much longer...

48 ENE winds clouds and drizzle.

Looks like the coldest of this period (4/10 - 4/25) is setting up to be 4/15-16 and then again 4/19 - 4/21. It still would not surprise me to get on the warmer side of the as the trough pulls out for a period in the 4/26 - 4/30 period and end the month warm. it doesnt look sustained but a quick 2-3 day warmup may still evolve before May.

Full sun and up to 65 now.