SACRUS
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Clouds and Easterly flow. Cool and cloudy next two days but we should start getting more southerly wind as the Western Atlantic ridge backs west and flow is much more humid 8/5 - 8/8/ Florida style pattern till Mid August starts Thursday. Progression remains the same Western ridge pushing trough into the east as the western atlantic ridge backs west 8/5 and beyond. Humid warm to hot with rain chances . Trough lifts out and flow flattens a bit and turns more SW by 8/8 and into next week. Last night guidance shows hint of smaller cut offs which can cause lots of rain and onshore flow that could limit the strong heat. Seems to be one NC/VA coast on some guidance Mon-Wed so will need to watch. Otherwise the heat from the west comes east and could offer the hottest temps since late June or in the extreme of the season . Multiple 90s chances and the overall warmth looks to continue into Mid month as of now.
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67/59 after a low of 57. Another gorgeous day shaping up before the migration back towards a Florida style feel. Migration continues to look like cooler than normal 8/2 - 8/4 with Western Ridge forcing a tough into the EC. The Western Atlantic ridge is expanding west starting 8/5 and a warm / southerly humid flow develops. Trough / boundary is forced west of the area (close by) but still expect dew points to climb and daily rain chances through the coming weekend 8/8. Trough lifts out and flow flattens as ridging build along the EC and allows heat from the western heat factory to come east 8/8 through next week. ECM showing seasons longest and perhaps strongest heat signal next week. We'll see where the W. Atl Ridge positions and if rain / clouds muddy up a return to a sustained warm to hot pattern. Otherwise chance of 90s / heat starting 8.8.
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https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/EUS/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-EUS-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif
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Cool down EWR: 7/30: 87/67 7/31: 81/61 JFK: 7/30: 86/66 7/31: 76/59 LGA: 7/30: 85/68 7/31: 79/64 NYC: 7/30: 82/67 7/31: 77/60
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77/61 and clouds moving in. Back to some terrific weather Monday before a slow transition to much more humid weather returns mid / late week. West Coast Ridge gone wild pushing trough into the EC. Western Atlantic Ridge flexing back west and the EC or just west of there stuck in the middle between the two with a boundary hung up. That should translate to the progression; 8/4 - 8/8 : humid/ warm and wet with daily storm/rain chances and likely clouds - Florida-like 8/8 - next week : Trough lift but still some weakness and have to watch for some sor te of cut off , but with a flatter flow some of the heat from the west comes east into the area and offers the next shot at heat/90s. Some high heat index values and continued rain chances. Florida style back into the region. Tropics likely kick into return gear. SO once past the 4th of the below normal start it looks humid , wet and warm with some potential heat mixed in.
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Current dewpoint : 48F
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August 2016, 2014, 2013 all opened with a cooler than normal August. 16 saw heat come back week 2 and remain most of the rest of the month. 13 / 14 remained near or below normal with no signficant heat.
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August to open cooler than normal and probably the coolest since 2013. This year's summer will be remembered by what happens in August after the hot start in June/early July then more wet/cooler last week or two and this coming week. Progression on guidance remain consistent and both the gfs and ecm are persistent with cooler opening Sun (8/1) through Wed/Thu (8/4) with strong Rockies Ridge and trough into the EC. Then as the Western Atlantic ridge expands west in the Thu (8/5) to Sun (8/8) period more southerly tropical flow with humidity and rain chances as the boundary is over or just west of the area as heights come up on the EC. SO more warm/humid and wet to very wet this period. By next weekend Sun (8/8) the trough is lifting out and the flow flattens and the western heat comes east and offers our next chance of heat / 90s. We'll see how humid and wet it remains but guidance still showing that second week of August with a transition back towards the heat.
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Down to 52 last night with some California-like natural airconditioning over night. Some clouds moving through the area with mostly cloudy conditions in SNJ and more breaks C/N-NJ/NYC. IT should clear for most in the mid morning and make way for a glorious day and farewell to July. Low 80s dry and sunshine. BBQ - beach and pressure washing weather.
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7/30 ACY: 88 PHL: 87 EWR: 87 JFK: 86 BLM: 86 ISP: 85 New Brnswck: 85 LGA: 85 TTN: 84 TEB: 82 NYC: 82
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August looking to open cooler and drier through Thu (Aug 5) perhaps the coolest opening Aug since 2013. The W. Atlantic Ridge relocates west offshore and pumps southerly flow, so humid and warmer by the 5th and with it the boundary is left over or just west as the Western / Rockies Ridge roars and pushes the trough into the GL/OV. The W. Atl Ridge currently modeled to build west but not as far as the Jun / Jul progressions. So wet / humid Florida-like pattern for a few several days 8/5 - 8/8. The trough lifts out and flow flattens and the second week of August looks to offer the next chance at some 90s/heat but suspect we remain humid and with rain chances.
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0.89 in the bucket last night. Now 74 / 66 and DT dropping. Looks like a spectacular weekend shaping up. On to August thread for longer range ideas cool - humid/wed (8/5)- humid-heat-wet (8/7)
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Seeing the same trends and the model progression of the W . Atl Ridge expansion is one that looks to transition from cool/dry to humid/wet (Aug 5) then humid/hot/wet (Aug 8)
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On to August : Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013. The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe. So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch. Transition from dry and below average to humid and above normal and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6). The ridge may build back slower and need to watch the boundary for hung up storms / rain before the heat.
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The dog days of summer coming in with a miniature Maltese this year. Cooler for a week or through 8/4. Once past today's rains it looks mostly dry and very pleasant. Fantastic summer weather. On to August : Open 3 - 4 days cooler than normal, coolest open to August since 2013. The western atlanic ridge continues to be hinted at expanding west in the 8/5 and beyond timeframe. So the progression and extent of the westward movement will need to watch. Transition from dry and below average to humid and above and then some heat looks likely as we move into the next weekend (8/6).
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7/28 EWR: 87 PHL: 86 ACY: 85 New Brunswck: 84 TTN: 84 JFK: 83 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 NYC: 81 BLM: 81 ISP: 81
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Friday would be the only outside chance for a 90 in the warmer spots if the advance (push) of the warmer air was delayed vs what models are showing. They show a push of 850 temos >16c overnight Thursday (7/29) into Friday (7/30) morning before the front comes through and dries us out / coold off. Then into the trough and coolest stretch (5 days) since May against the mean average. Onto August thread but both GFS and ECM continue second and third model cycle with humid / warm-hot pattern returning with the westward expanding W/ Atl Ridge in the 8/5 and beyond period with next potential chance at 90s. Its a matter of how that evolves to see how hot it can get. Right now the center of the ridge is anchored of the EC in the long range with a warm / humid Southerly flow. Id bet on humid and wet at this stage and temps bias warm before we can hone in on any spike in heat.
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7/27 EWR: 94 PHL: 94 ACY: 93 New Brnswck: 93 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 BLM: 91 TEB: 91 ISP: 89 NYC: 89 JFK: 88
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7/27 EWR: 94 PHL: 94 ACY: 93 New Brnswck: 93 LGA: 91 TTN: 91 BLM: 91 TEB: 91 ISP: 89 NYC: 89 JFK: 88
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7/26 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 LGA: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 89 NYC: 88
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7/26 EWR: 93 New Brnswck: 91 ACY: 91 PHL: 91 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 LGA: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 89 NYC: 88
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Some of the urban/metro and CNJ areas should add 3 or more 90 degree days by Aug 1, but it is a fine line with the strongest heat just south and between the hotter days N'rly flow will cool/dry the area. ECM the opposite next week Aug 1 - 5 with one warm-hot day then some below normal days. Its 7-10 days away so we will see how it trends and if the stronger heat can bring more mid 90s to the hotter spots Tue (7/27). It seems when the heat comes by way of the Western Atlantic Ridge building west, there is a period of normal to below when the ridge retreats east, thats what we are in now between the Rockies ridge and the W. aTl Ridge. We'll see if EC ridging can make a come back and push the summer to the hotter side overall. 90 degree days are still on par with 2016/2012 tallies to this points so Junes big numbers helping in that department.
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Seems like a good forecast. Currently looking a bit back and forth with a fine line between some hot days and more /drier seasonal this week bias warm. Once to the weekend 7/31 through the first 5-6 days of August looks bias cooler than normal with a day or two mixed in hot. Beyond that the western ridge looks to expand east and perhaps the Wsetern Atlntc ridge noses west again.
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7/25 PHL: 88 BLM: 86 EWR: 87 ACY: 86 New Brnswck: 86 TTN: 85 TEB: 84 LGA: 84 NYC: 83 ISP: 80 JFK:80
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I am not sure if the image is cached (24 hours prior) for some reason but none the less some breaks in the mostly cloudy conditions approaching the area
