SACRUS

Have to see if we get any true cooler air from any front / trough in the 7/27 - 28 period before next heat blast ejects east from plains / OV

7/17 - clouds got in the way but nice rebound after 3pm PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 89 TTN: 88 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 EWR: 87 LGA: 86 NYC: 84 JFK: 81 ISP: 79

Clearing working down from NW NJ. 83/71 here now.

75/70 cloudy as the winds shift and bring the heat into the area. Should we clear out later this afternoon inland spots and some warmer spots should start their respective 90+ /heatwaves. Heat the big story the next 5 - 7 days - hazy - hot and humid. Likely no widespread records but with enough sun i would watch Sun and Mon for 100s EWR - LGA - JFK inland NE-NJ. Storms possible especially Mon. Tue PM / Wed (7/22) look to get more southerly component to winds so perhaps those upper 70 and 80 degree dewpoints those days. Beyond 7/23 - ridging is still anchored into the Mid West with the Western Atlantic Ridge pulsing west, keeping heights higher with continued war to hot and wetter / stormy chances through the end of Jul and into August.

7/16 PHL: 83 TTN: 81 LGA: 80 ACY: 79 New Brnswck: 79 NYC: 78 EWR: 78 TEB: 78 JFK: 76 BLM: 76 ISP: 75

75/62 ESE wind. Very California like the next 24 - 36 hours before the heat arrives. Low 80s today and very pleasant. Dryer the last few days should help with temps over performing on sunny days. Starting Friday and id expect temps to come up friday as flow goes more SW by the afternoon and inland areas reach 90, coastal/metro areas may be close 88/89's. 7/18 - 7/25: The hazy hot and humid weather arrives. ECM peaking 850MB temps >16c through the period, peaking Sun PM (7/19) - Wed (7/22), coupled with high dewpoints equal excessive heat warnings and temps mid -upper 90s. Only limiting factor for 100 in EWR, LGA, JFK is clouds in the hotter spots Sun/Mon. Storms possible after daytime heating Tue /Wed. Tuesday could feature more southerly flow for a time but still looks hot enough to get to 90 and continue the heatwave. Western Atlantic Ridge building west by 7/25 in the long rage offering more above normal/ steamy temps. Way out there we'll see if the ridge shifts west and we increase storms and cool down a bit towards the end of the month. Overall looking warm into August.

7/15 PHL: 89 New Brnswck: 83 TTN: 83 NYC: 82 LGA: 82 TEB: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 JFK: 78 BLM: 78 ISP: 76

77/67 E winds and partly sunny as some clouds pushing inland from the east winds. Two days of onshore flow will keep temps in the low to perhaps mid 80s. I do think Thu may see temps outdo guidance with mostly sunny conditions. Queue Lovin Spoonful Hot town Summer in the City (even the park) Friday should see the beginning of a very hot period away from the coast. Pending on any clouds/storms temps will shoot to 90 in many inland spots. Coastal and metro areas may need to wait till Saturday to begin the heatwave. Very hot air mass 850MB temps >16c through D9 on most guidance with more heat coming in beyond that in way out range. Heat peaking Sun PM (7/19) through Tues (7/21) where 850b temps of 20c should translate to the surface with 95(+) heat and with enough sun some areas could push the century mark that havent eclipsed 98 / 99 since 2013. High humidity will launch dewpouints into the 70s and perhaps upper 70s towards the middle of next week. This should allow fairly consistent storm chances (ala Florida-like) tropics feel. Longer range beyond any front or brief reprise 7/25, ridge looks to rebuild into the east towards the end of July and continue hot overall opattern. Still need to watch storms and any weakness in the ridge that could lead to the persistent easterly flow. But overall Fri - next Wed looks Hazy Hot Humid.

7/14 LGA: 89 ACY: 89 JFK: 88 BLM: 88 PHL: 87 New Brnswck: 87 EWR: 87 ISP: 86 TTN: 86 TEB: 86 NYC: 85

Looks like between Sat and next Tue can offer ISP the westerly flow needed for some heat.

78/61 off a low of 66. Another sensational day out there to help dry things out for those who were soaked by Fay and strong storms. Temps today in upper 80s, perhaps a stray 90 of we have some over performers on the W / WNW flow. Next two days (Wed and Thu) very Southern California like with strong onshore flow, we will see how low it can go for daily maxes on Thu. Overall next few days look mostly dry. Queue Martha Vandellas - Heatwave Starting Friday winds should go around to a more NW'rly flow and begin a very hot period for most stations. Coastal areas will get into the heat on Sat. The period 7/18 - 7/25 should see the first widespread heat wave for the area and strong heat 95 (+) on several days between Sat (7/18) and Tue (7/22). ECM and GFS have 850 temps >16c Fri - Sat and >18C Sun - Wed, peaking Sun and Mon at 20c. Some scattered storms Sun and Tue. Beyond Wd (7/23) first transient front moves through as ridge build back into the Plains and slowly moves east to meet the Western Atlantic Ridge on / around 7/26. We'll see how it plays out and if there is any cutoff that can cause rogue ULL or onshore flow. But closest into the period now and it looks hot. Do we reach triple digits - if we do it would be Sun , Mon or Tue period this blast. Beyond here in model lala land strong ridge signal in the late July period can offer the next opportunity.

7/13 LGA: 91 EWR: 89 BLM: 89 ACY: 89 PHL: 88 JFK: 88 TEB: 87 TTN: 87 New Brnswck: 86 NYC: 86 ISP: 84

Humidity back 79/68 and partly sunny. Looks less stormy today that initially expected. Some clouds moving through as winds shift to SW. Today again with enough sun and assume storms are more scattered, we should see places outside the damp park reach 90. Tuesday (7/14) looks like a cooler version of Sunday but again temps near 90 before more onshore flow Wed - Thu. Dry / sunny and temps on mid 80s both days. Friday toss up day where if winds go around to the SW the heat is on. Starting Saturday (7/18) should see overall hot pattern beging (gfs seems too cool) and continue thru at least 7/25. Potential in the period for strong heat 95 (+) especially towards 7/20. ECm has 850s >16c for the period and peaking at >20c around next mon/tue (7/20-21) Have to watch weakness undercutting the ridge (season persistence) which looks anchored between the Plains and Mid West.

7/12 LGA: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 87

7/12 LGA: 93 EWR: 91 PHL: 91 ACY: 90 BLM: 90 JFK: 90 New Brnswck: 90 TTN: 89 TEB: 89 ISP: 87 NYC: 87

Noon Roundup Humidity dropped and DT in the low 60s / gorgeous day ACY: 88 EWR: 86 BLM: 86 PHL: 86 TTN: 85 JFK: 85 LGA: 85 New Brnswck: 85 ISP: 84 TEB: 83 NYC: --

July monthly Precip totals EWR: 6/74 TEB: 6.52 NYC: 4.02 NEw Brnswk: 3.99 LGA: 2.93 JFK: 2.89 TTN: 2.43 ISP: 1.67

7/10 (T Fay) ACY: 80 ISP: 80 JFK: 79 LGA: 79 EWR: 79 BLM: 79 New Brnswck: 78 NYC: 77 TTN: 77 TEB: 77 PHL: 76 ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 7/11 PHL: 90 New Brnswck: 89 BLM: 88 TTN: 88 ACY: 88 LGA: 88 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 NYC: 83 JFK: 82 ISP: 79

78/65 felling much less tropical today. Clear skies should get most stations outside the park to 90 today. Will post monthly precip totals next,. Warm and wet continues. ULL brings more E/ NE winds Wed - Thu before the heat is on. Lots of 88/ 89 days perhaps a 90 or two in the warmer spots Tue - Thu. Ridge centered a bit south for the extreme potential record breaking heat till at least 7/18, perhaps during the hottest time of the year it moves over the area.. Beyond storms tomorrow (Mon 7/13) the week looks to dry things out. Heights are high most of the next two weeks with a very hot airmass over much of the east. Flow will determine extent of maxes. ECM pushes 850 temps >16 by Fri PM and near 20c next weekend so what looked like strong heat Thu is now being forecast 7/18 - 7/21 (next weekend) as cutoff over New England moves through by 7/18. Overall as the heat comes and we are away from the center of the axis which meanders towards the plains then GL, storms should continue to be consistent so no true drying out.

Close to it, maybe eye crosses over the Beach Haven / LBI areas in the next hour.

Thru 4 OXB: 5.22 DOV: 4.71 WWD: 3.84 ACY: 3.25 PHL: 2.78 New Brnswck: 2.49 BLM: 2.12 EWR: 2.5 JFK: 2.09 TTN: 1.53 NYC: 1.90 ABE: 0.94 LGA: 1.90 ISP: TEB: 1.65

Totala thru 3:05 PM OXB: 5.22 DOV: 4.71 WWD: 3.83 ACY: 3.20 PHL: 2.74 New Brnswck: 2.32 BLM: 2.08 EWR: 1.6 JFK: 1.54 TTN: 1.51 NYC: 0.95 LGA: 0.88 ISP: 0.09 TEB: 0.79

Sun out (briefly) along Ortley beach

OXB: 5.19 DOV: 4.26 WWD: 3.81 ACY: 3.11 PHL: 2.24 BLM: 1.52 New Brnswck: 0.75 TTN: 0.47

OXB: 5.19 WWD: 3.78 DOV: 3.76 ACY: 3.11 PHL: 1.13 BLM: 0.63 TTN: 0.23