SACRUS

Storms missed to the south along the Jersey shore last night. Clouds did limit any widespread 90s on Wed. Warm and dry today and more upper 80s to isolated 90 degree readings (enhanced by dryness). Dew temps up a tinge near 60 now, so not as comfortable as Wed/THu. Weekend is warm and only clouds and storms timing could limit Sat from being the hottest day of the season so far. Storms come through Sat evening and hope to bring more widespread rain and downpours to the areas. Things should clear out Sunday with temps again near 90 with isolated storms. By Sunday evening a weakness in the ridge leads to trough to build down and close off over the northeast 6/30 - 7/3 Id expect guidance to show more showers and storms in this period with the position of the ULL vs prior occurrences in late May and last week.. GFS and ECM push the ULL offshore by July 4th. Some onshore flow still lingering into the 4th/5th but looks dry for the holiday weekend. Once the flow goes NW/ W the heat is on 7/5-6ish into the following week and beyond. Ridge is flatter and overall warm to hot pattern looks to ensue.

6/25 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 86 ISP: 85 JFK: 85 PHL: 84 New Brnswck: 84 BLM: 84 TTN: 84

220 hours to go. GFS continues with bringing the flow more NW by Sat the 4th, while the ECM hole the ULL / onshore through Jul 8. We'll see if this a run that went too long or a trend. Either way looking warm and dry for most on the 4th, beaches may be a bit cooler. Once the flow turns, the heat is on.

Down to a comfortable 60/54 last night. Upto 776 now as clouds cut NJ in half SW to NE. More warm and dry next day into the mid 80s, little if any showers or rain. Warming tomorrow to the upper 80s and by Saturday perhaps the hottest day of the season (so far) as 850 temps exceed 18c ahead of storms overnight. Warmer / drier by Sunday pm and near 90. ULL cutoff now coming in to view but these are hard to handle so a day or so timing may be needed as buffer. 6/30 - 7/30 ULL over the northeast E/ NE flow for a few days and perhasps clouds and storms one or two of those days. Overall warm airmass with ULL trapped in the weakness part 3. Both GFS and ECM pushing ULL off shore by the fourth of July with a more N/NW flow to warm things back up later that day and Sunday the heat is on. Beyond there looks like sustained warmth with a flatter ridge keeping the flow hot.

a 6/24 LGA: 89 EWR: 88 ACY: 88 JFK: 88 ISP: 88 NYC: 86 TEB: 86 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 PHL: 85 New Brnswck: 85

244 hours to go. A matter of clearing the weakness / ULL within the ridge. ECM a bit longer into the 4th with the GFS quicker to move the ULL cutoff out. Overall once flow goes N/NW the heat is on. Ahead of that 6/30 - 7/3 onshore and may become wetter on guidance. But the holiday weekend looks to warm.

Noon roundup, very nice less humid warm summer day JFK: 85 / 64 EWR: 84 / 56 ACY: 84 / 59 LGA: 84/ 55 ISP: 84/ 68 NYC: 82 / 54 TEB: 82 / 56 BLM: 81 / 58 New Brnswck: 80 / 56 PHL: 79 / 52 TTN: 78 / 55

Past June departures, at least the warmest since 2011 likely. EWR: 2019: +.3 2018: -0.3 2017: +0.5 2016: +0.3 2015: -0.4 2014: +0.4 2013: +0.8 2012: 0 2011: +2.0 2010: +3.8 LGA: 2019: +0.6 2018: +1.4 2017: +1.5 2016: +1.2 2015: -0.9 2014: +0.3 2013: +1.8 2012: +0.7 2011: +0.4 2010: +3.8 NYC: 2019: +0.2 2018: +0.2 2017: +0.6 2016: +0.8 2015: -0.2 2014: +1.0 2013: +1.2 2012: -0.4 2011: +0.9 2010: +3.2

Missed all but a sun shower since Friday where i was lucky to get 0.10. Perhaps with the ULL now forecast to be close by and essentially over the region bewteen 6/30 and 7/3 maybe we can see some widespread rains. We shall see if models start showing anything more widespread. Past ULL in May and last week had some decent rains where the ULL st for a few days.

June departures through 6/24 (7 days to go). I remeber last year with the searing heat in the Southeast and now into the northeast. Sandwiched so far. EWR: +1.6 NYC: +2.0 LGA: +3.2 JFK: +0.5 TTN: +1.1 CAR: +5.7 ALB: +4.1 BTV: +3.0

Clouds hauling through with a more westerly wind now and p to 78. Where as yesterday was below forecast today with a more westerly flow may out do guidance similar to monday. So ares will approach or reach 90, enhanced by the recent dryness. Sat and Sunday should see temps again exceed 90 in a more widespread fashion ahead of the next trough and subsequent ULL. Overnight runs with the return of the onshore flow that went let go until Independence day weekend. This time the ULL cut off may be closer by and muddy up 6/30 - 7/3 with more with clouds and rain then sunny cool and dry weather we had the past two where the ULL was much further south. I do think we warm things up by Sat/Sun (7.4 -7/5) and the week beyond the 4th holiday.. Get the flow N / NW and 850 temps are an ocean of >18C. These tendencies of ULL that linger 4 - 6 days may finally see that progression north and east of the area beyond the first week of July. Overall

260 hours to go. Guidance still varying on when the flow goes more NW/W but still looks like after a few days (6/30 - 7/2 or 3) of onshore flow we heat things up the fourth of July weekend. Still need to watch if a ULL fully cuts off and is pushed southwest similar to May and last week but the weekend may prove to get on the warmer flow of the ULL whether pushing inland (SW) or pushing east.

6/23 New Brnswck: 92 TTN: 90 PHL: 90 EWR: 88 LGA: 87 NYC: 87 ACY: 87 TEB: 87 BLM: 85 ISP: 82 JFK: 82

Noon Roundup: New Brnswck: 86 LGA: 86 NYC: 85 EWR: 85 TEB: 85 PHL: 84 TTN: 84 ISP: 82 BLM: 81 JFK: 81 ACY: 81

10AM Roundup: LGA: 84 New Brnswck: 82 EWR: 82 ACY: 81 NYC: 81 BLM: 81 TEB: 81 ISP: 81 JFK: 79 TTN: 79 PHL: 78

9AM LGA:82 ACY: 80 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 80 BLM: 79 NYC: 79 TEB: 79 ISP: 78 JFK: 77 TTN: 76 PHL: 76

Looks like clouds and storms over W-PA should reach the area between 2 and 3 PM, lets see what they look like by then. Cached image will show wrong date so not worth posting it.

Very good point as seen in the last two cutoff ULL migrations. add a day or two vs model projections. Suspect the period would be 6/30 - 7/2 or 7/3 before the flow turns on the heat by 4th of July weekend. Alternately we can see a scenario where the flow stays more northerly pushing down the heat during that period. I would lean towards the onshore flow for a few days to open the month. With enough clouds maybe the GFS was onto something unusually cool for a day to two before the heat can filter in.

Up to 78 off a low of 67 here. Overnight runs continue a warm pattern only interrupted 6/30 - 7/2 (or 3rd) by an onshore component before more heat comes in for Independence Day weekend. ECM did show this feature on the 00z guidance while GFS warmer than the Monday runs. Tendency has been for ridging to build north so that period is likely to see heat muted for a 3-4 day window. Beyond there July looks to sizzle for much of the nation. Days near or exceeding 90 : 6/23,24, 27, 28, 29, before a few days of cooler.

Overall looking like very warm 4th of July weekend from this far in advance. ECM is hotter than the GFS but both imply above normal to hot conditions. Believe the onshore flow timing is more 6/30 - 7/2 or 3. But being that is has been a reoccurring theme this past 2 months, something to watch as we go through the next few days. 276 hours to go...

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

6/22 LGA: 93 EWR: 92 New Brnswck: 91 TEB: 91 NYC: 90 BLM: 90 TTN: 89 PHL: 89 ACY: 88 ISP: 88 JFK: 87

1PM ROunup LGA: 93 EWR: 91 BLM: 90 NYC: 89 New Brnswck: 89 TEB: 88 ACY: 87 ISP: 87 JFK: 86 TTN: 86 PHL: 85

Noon roundup; LGA: 90 EWR: 89 TEB: 88 New Brnswck: 87 BLM: 87 JFK: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 84 (still some moisture in the overgrowth) ISP: 84 ACY: 84 PHL: 83

11AM Roundup LGA: 89 ISP: 87 EWR: 87 TEB: 86 New Brnswck: 86 BLM: 85 NYC: 85 ACY: 84 JFK: 84 TTN: 82 PHL: 81