SACRUS

Been a rough few days, heres hoping for some rains tomorrow for allergies and plants/veggies sake.

Cloudy and cool morning off a low of 47 Mon night, did drop to 40 Sunday night. We'll see if clouds cap first shot at 90s Wed / Fri for the warmer spots. Believe we are transitioning to an overall warmer and wetter phase which should be the summer theme. Should we miss 90s this week - the period 6/9 - 6/11 should yield more widespread heat ahead of the remnants of the Gulf storm followed by trough 6/11 - 6/13 with the ridge looking to be building back behind it. Doubt any prolonged heat or cool as plenty of troughs moving along between rising heights. Active June may be en route.

Heights look to come up 6/3 - 6/6 before the next cold front then ridging looks to expand out of the Plains/ Great Lakes towards 6/10. Need to watch if more troughing over Canadian Maritimes blunts the ridge. Still think first 90s 6/7 - 6/11 period even in the park.

Park: 6/11 EWR: 6/10

Made it to 86 yesterday after back to back 80s Wed/Thu. Today looks spectacular (wish we could have had this last memorial day weekend) but none the less low 80s and lowering humidity with partly to mainly sunny skies. Beach weather. Warmer overall temps appear to be coming closer to fruition on guidance in the 6/7 and beyond period. Ridging moves from the Plains and GL into the east in the period but appears to be potentially active storm wise. Would seem likely for the first 90s of the season between 6/7 and 6/12. Could be heading into the warmer but wetter theme for the summer. Will see how it goes and if any strong heat can overspread the area a kin to 2008.

Pushing 85 here now but some storms popping in E_PA and WNJ now

A few breaks in the clouds and just hit 80/71 here with a S-SW breeze.

ULL and persistent onshore flow last 10 days + with ridge axis too far north and cloud cover the past 2 days curbing the heat here. Beyond the very anomalous cool coming Sunday - Tue it looks to be more normal overall with next ridge looking to build around June 7th or 8th on the latest guidance. Persistent troughs going into the west coast.

Up to 80 Thu for third straight day. Clouds in the way of first 90s Thu-Sat. First 70 degree dewpoint this year today. Cooler dryer air in time to open June. Then a moderating back to normal 6/4 - 6/6. Beyond there we'll see if we get the ridge to build in a more favorable spot for the seasons first heat into the region.

Back to back 80's here. More cloudy than yesterday but more steamy overall. EWR: 79 NYC: 79 LGA: 78

Up to 80 yesterday with strong late May sunshine and a bit of humidity. Today more of the same - low level clouds which may be tougher to burn off ahead of more clouds coming in from storms to the south. Winds more ESE and dewpoints remaining in the low 60s before more steamy air arrives Thu and Fri on a more Southerly flow. Looking ahead ; Thu/Fri/Sat (5/28 - 5/30) : Stormy humid and warm - mostly cloudy will cap temps in the upper 70s/low 80s. Should we see more sun Friday temps may respond accordingly i the mid or upper 80s. 5/31 - 6/4 : Cooler as cold front passes and trough digs into the east. Possible lows in the 40s inland Sunday night. 6/5 - 6/9 : Rebound - warmer overall but near normal. 6/10 : Ridge in the east (far out there in guidance land) but hints of ridge building - seen that before and ultimately the ridge did build 400 miles to far north to deliver any summertime heat in the area. So ridging looks likely, have to watch how it evolves and where axis sets up and any ULL undercutting the ridge.

Up to 76 yesterday with full sunshine by a little past 3pm. Think we're sunnier sooner today and that is closer to noon/1pm today for most So-Cal June-gloom pattern - Marine layer burns off by early afternoon to bright sunshine and warm temps. With any sun Thu - Fri could have been a contender. Hung up front an issue with such a stagnant airmass and massive ridge nearby. Beyond the strong cold front passing though (maybe slowly) and subsequent 2 day cooler temps (5/31-6/4) it could be a more normal pattern with transient height rises followed by transient troughs/ showers and storms with no cool or warmth locking in during the 6/5 - mid June period. Warmer days should yield the first 90s but need to watch how wet we get too.

Trying to go back and see of Mays with such a persistent onshore flow. Even 2008 which i am liking this period and how it ended to, was more by way of deep trough into the east . You are right there isnt any lack of ridging in the east since May 8th. with constant troughs moving into the west coast too. Just a matter of time before the warmth spreads in from Canada :-) . Thu/ Fri look steamy with SSW flow ahead of the front. Clouds will hinder any chance those days of a stray 90 which was looking possible a few days ago.

Dow to 54 last night. Low level clouds will be slow to erode over the next 2 - 4 hours.. NE flow continues. Clouds will muddy up any temps higher than the low 80s Thu and Fri. Front arrives Fri PM / Sat keeping things a bit cooler than normal 6/1 - 6/4 . Heights and temps look to rebound 6/5 we'll see how things evolve. image stays cached on prior day,-

Down to 51 last night. 0.59 in the bucket. Cool and a bit breezy NE wind. Clouds generally moving NE to SW with some breaks over LI and N-NJ so far.

Areas with sun out in southern NJ in the mid 70s. Looks possible to clear a bit this afternoon as this batch of rain rotates through ahead of the onshore flow. Already clearing to i-195.

Very tropical out there today. Clouds and rain rotating through with sun out in S-NJ now. 66/65 here. About 0.37 in the bucket

Up to 76 here remaining partly cloudy for a bit longer.

Getting past the ULL Fri / Sat, the rest of the memorial day weekend looks much like the past week onshore flow / Calinfornia style weather. Temps warming Tue/Wed with first shot of 90s Thu-Sat (5/28 - 5/30) in the warmer spots - expecting temps to beat current guidance.. Cold front arrives Sat/Sun next weekend with cooler start to June 5/31 - 6/4 as ridge builds into the Plains/ GL. Gotta watch hung / slow frontal passage 5/31 - 6/2. Way out there there but 6/5 still troughing pushing into the WC, with ridge orientation needing to improve to get the sustained warmth into the east. Will be interesting to see how it progresses and if the current dry is ended with an abrupt soaker a few days.

Cloud deck creeping north into C-NJ with showers into DE/SNJ

Warmer that I would have thought Location NWS ID Description Water Temperature Latitude Longitude Absecon ASCN4 Absecon COOP 55 39.4231 -74.5000 Absecon ABSN4 Absecon Ck. at Absecon 62 39.4303 -74.5206 Allenwood ALLN4 Manasquan R. nr. Allenwood 57 40.1467 -74.1222 Atlantic City ATLN4 Atlantic City 58 39.3781 -74.4228 Barnegat Light BGLN4 Barnegat Light 54 39.7631 -74.1106 Belmar BLMN4 Belmar ALERTS 56 40.1800 -74.0400 Belvidere BVDN4 Belvidere-Del Rvr 59 40.8264 -75.0825 Bivalve BVVN4 Bivalve ALERTS 58 39.2300 -75.0400 Canoe Brook DCP CHMN4 Canoe Brook DCP 60 40.7400 -74.3500 Cape May Harbor CAPN4 Cape May Harbor ALERT 55 38.9500 -74.8200 Cherry Hill CHRN4 S. Br. Pennsauken Cr. 57 39.9417 -75.0011 Extonville EXTN4 Crosswicks Cr. at Extonville 59 40.1372 -74.6000 Flatbrookville FLAN4 Flat Brook near Flatbrookville 58 41.1061 -74.9525 Frenchtown FREN4 Delaware River at Frenchtown 61 40.5261 -75.0650 Griggstown GTNN4 Millstone R. at Griggstown 64 40.4400 -74.6175 Haddonfield HDDN4 Haddonfield 59 39.9031 -75.0214 Keansburg KSBN4 Keansburg - Raritan Bay 56 40.4444 -74.1478 Kenilworth KENN4 Rahway River near Kenilworth 58 40.6731 -74.3133 Manasquan MSNN4 Watson C. at Manasquan 56 40.1117 -74.0442 Manville MNVN4 Manville 62 40.5556 -74.5828 Maplewood USGS MPLN4 E. Branch Rahway River 55 40.7350 -74.2706 Margate City MGTN4 Margate City Coop. 55 39.3300 -74.5000 Medford MEDN4 SW Br. Rancocas Ck. at Medford 62 39.8953 -74.8236 Millburn EBRN4 E. Branch Rahway River 56 40.7242 -74.3058 Millburn WBRN4 W. Branch Rahway River 60 40.7308 -74.3072 Mount Holly - Iron Work Park IWPN4 N. Br. Rancocas Cr. 60 39.9931 -74.7814 Newark DCP NWKN4 Passaic River - Newark (Tidal) 56 40.7131 -74.1231 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 55 39.9561 -74.6278 New Lisbon NLBN4 New Lisbon-Greenwood Branch 58 39.9561 -74.6278 Oak Ridge USGS ORGN4 Pequannock R. at Oak Ridge 59 41.0397 -74.5017 Pemberton PEBN4 Pemberton 61 39.9700 -74.6844 Pequest PQTN4 Pequest River at Pequest 54 40.8306 -74.9786 Pompton POMN4 Ramapo R-Dawes Hwy 66 40.9856 -74.2794 Pompton Lakes PPTN4 Pompton Lakes 65 40.9919 -74.2800 Pompton Lakes Above PLUN4 Pompton Lakes lake elevation 65 40.9925 -74.2789 Pompton Lakes-Lakeside Ave PMPN4 Ramapo R at Lakeside Ave. 64 41.0072 -74.2744 Port Mercer(Del/Rtn canal) DRCN4 Delaware and Raritan Canal 63 40.3044 -74.6853 Rahway RBRN4 Rahway - Robsinsons Branch 56 40.6056 -74.2992 Riegelsville RGLN4 Delaware R. at Riegelsville 62 40.5947 -75.1897 Sea Bright SBIN4 Sea Bright ALERTS 54 40.3700 -73.9800 Sea Isle City SICN4 Sea Isle City-Ludlam Thorofare 54 39.1578 -74.6981 Singac SIGN4 64 40.8944 -74.2661 South Dennis SDNN4 South Dennis ALERTS 55 39.1600 -74.8300 Spruce Run Res. USGS SRRN4 Spruce Run Reservoir HP-TW 58 40.6436 -74.9236 Stafford Forge STFN4 Westecunk Cr at Stafford Forge 59 39.6667 -74.3203 Stone Harbor SHBN4 Stone Harbor ALERTS 55 39.0600 -74.7700 Swedesboro SWBN4 Swedesboro - Baccoon Creek 57 39.7411 -75.2592 Trenton TTWN4 Trenton-Del R 62 40.2217 -74.7783 Tuckerton TKTN4 Tuckerton ALERT 53 39.5000 -74.3250 Tuckerton TIDE JCTN4 Jacques Cousteau Reserve Tide 55 39.5081 -74.3383 Vincentown VNCN4 Vincentown - S.Br.Rancocas Cr. 59 39.9394 -74.7639 Waretown WATN4 Waretown ALERTS 58 39.7900 -74.1800 Washington Xing DCP WASN4 Washington Crossing 62 40.2950 -74.8681 Whitesbog 4S MCDN4 McDonalds Br. in Lebanon SF 53 39.8850 -74.5053

Down to 37 here last night. More heat than AC through the first 3 weeks of the month - not even close.

You can see how Friday and most of Saturday could be cloudy as this cut off moves moves through

Queue Albert Hammond - It never rains in southern California San Diego or is it Laguna Beach style weather continues. Onshore flow and temps in the upper 60s with no rain. ULL passes through Fri PM and Saturday with some unsettled showers and storms possible. Otherwise more of the same Sunday and Memorial Day perhaps a tinge warmer. The delayed warmth should get to most of the area on/around 5/28 with a warmer last weekend of the month shaping up on guidance. First shot of 90s, watch those 80s get higher / enhacned by recent dryness 5/28 - 5/30. Beyond there, longer range ECM would rebuild the ridge in the east in a more favorable location for a SW / W flow to bring some heat in early June while the GFS with cutoff city - time will tell. Will this be the 2008 style early June strong heat surge?

Not referring to th summer overall but rather the strong heat in early June that followed the cool may. Something like that is in the cards especially should it remain dryer than normal..