SACRUS

78 / 73 partly to mostly cloudy with some showers into CNJ andNE-NJ. Warm - hot and humid, where / when the sun is out temps jump to low 90s, perhaps mid 90s in spots with most sunshine. More scattered storms during the brunt of the day so likely not too bad before more storms later this evening and overnight with frontal passage. Looks most heaviest storms in the northern sections. Thick cloud deck about 7 - 9 hours away. Sun (7/31) - Wed (3rd) back to or below normal, less humid and great weather low - mid 80s in the warmest spots. Ridge is centering back near TX/OK this week with trough into the NE as the W. Atl. Ridge is contracted into the Atlantic. Winds come back around more SW by Wed and its more warm and humid with storm chances through Fri (5th). A bit back and forth through the opening of the week of the 8th before trough is backing into the GL and more overall warm, humid southerly flow is back as the Atl ridge is backing west. First week near normal / below overall Warming the second week / humid / more storms chances. Ridge and heights look to come up towards the end of the second week into the east.

storms moving into C/S - NJ.

http://www.swellmatrix.com/sst/sst-northeast8day.png

7/28 BLM: 96 EWR: 95 ACY: 95 LGA: 94 TEB: 94 PHL: 94 New Brnswck: 93 TTN: 92 NYC: 92 JFK: 91 ISP: 89

7/28 BLM: 96 EWR: 95 ACY: 95 LGA: 94 TEB: 94 PHL: 94 New Brnswck: 93 TTN: 92 NYC: 92 JFK: 91 ISP: 89

The height and expanse of the Western Atlantic Ridge / Bermuda high was less than forecast from the medium range. The 850 MB >20c stayed just south or we dealt with clouds/storms. the 594 line is just south of the area. We do get a blast of the stronger heat >20c 850 mb temps overnight into tomorrow but the front and storm clouds may blunt the highest readings potential. Still think we get some upper 90s in the hot spots today (97/98).

warm / wet too.

TTN/Park the cool spots typical of park more typical of TTN since 2018 or so.

A agree in this case it was a cooler 1/3, warm 1/3 and we'll see if August (1/3) end up on the plus side by way of warmer period once past the first week. Think we'll tunr more humid similar to end of June/early July towards the second week with that comes some hot days and storms.

That was early AUgust. We'll see id go warm / humid and much warmer than the first 7 - 8 days.

11AM Roundup: EWR: 90 BLM: 89 ACY: 89 New Brnswck: 89 JFK: 88 PHL: 88 TEB: 86 LGA: 86 ISP: 85 TTN: 84 NYC: 83

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (1949) NYC: 99 (1949) LGA: 98 (1499) Lows: EWR: 58 (1962) NYC: 57 (1903) LGA: 60 (1984) Historical: 1819 - A small but intense hurricane passed over Bay Saint Louis, MS. The hurricane was considered the worst in fifty years. Few houses were left standing either at Bay Saint Louis or at Pass Christian, and much of the Mississippi coast was desolate following the storm. A U.S. cutter was lost along with its thirty-nine crew members. The storm struck the same area that was hit 150 years later by Hurricane Camille. (David Ludlum) 1898: A severe thunderstorm produced considerable hail (some stones to 11 ounces) in Chicago, Illinois business district. Some people were hurt, not by hail, but by several hundred runaway horses spooked by the hailstones. 1930 - The temperature at Greensburg, KY, soared to 114 degrees to set a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1934 - The temperature at Grofino, ID, climbed to 118 degrees to establish a record for Idaho. (The Weather Channel) 1952 - A severe storm with hail up to an inch and a half in diameter broke windows, ruined roofs, and stripped trees of leaves near Benson, AZ. The temperature dropped to 37 degrees, as hail was three to four inches deep, with drifts 46 inches high. (The Weather Channel) 1986 - Severe thunderstorms moving out of South Dakota across Iowa produce high winds which derailed eighteen piggyback trailer cars of a westbound freight train near Boone, IA. Sixteen of the cars fell 187 feet into the Des Moines River. The thunderstorms also spawned a number of tornadoes, including one which caused twenty-five to fifty million dollars damage at Sloan, near Sioux City, IA. (Storm Data) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Nevada produced wind gusts to 70 mph at Searchlight, reducing visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Thunderstorms in Montana drenched Lonesome Lake with 3.78 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms drenched Wilmington, NC, with 3.33 inches of rain, bringing their monthly total 14.46 inches. Seven cities in Michigan and Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date. Marquette, MI, hit 99 degrees, and the record high of 94 degrees at Flint MI was their tenth of the month. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Afternoon thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in Massachusetts. Early evening thunderstorms over Florida produced wind gusts to 68 mph at Fort Myers, and evening thunderstorms in South Dakota produced nearly two inches of rain in twenty minutes at Pierpoint. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

85 / 71 sunny and warm. Hot and humid next 40 hours. Western Atlantic Ridge to its peak west expansion and with a SW flow pulling-in strong heat from the western ridge. Mid - upper 90s as 850 mb temps near / >18c. 20C 850 MB tomorrow ahead of front so depending on clouds some of the pre frontal heat can overperform. W. Atl. Ridge contracts and trough into the northeast pushes strong front through with potential strong storms later Sat (7/29)). Sun (7/30) clearing and back to / below normal. Mon (7/31) continues near/below with next shot at storms. Next month to open near / below normal and then a bit back and forth bias normal or cooler through the first week. The Ridge is entrenched out west with trough into the NE, the Western Atlantic Ridge is building west by the second week of next month and trough migrating into the GL with a more humid/warm S/SW flow with more storms chances. Moving to an overall warmer and humid / stormier.

7/27 EWR: 96 BLM: 96 LGA: 95 ACY: 95 TEB: 94 PHL: 94 New Brnswck: 93 JFK: 92 NYC: 92 TTN: 91 ISP: 86

7/27 EWR: 96 BLM: 96 LGA: 95 ACY: 95 TEB: 94 PHL: 94 New Brnswck: 93 JFK: 92 NYC: 92 TTN: 91 ISP: 86

Up to 92 here

Records: Highs: EWR: 101 (2005) NYC: 98 (1963) LGA: 100 (2005) Lows: EWR: 57 (1977) NYC: 55 (1920) LGA: 59 (1962) Historical: 1819: A hurricane affected the coast from Louisiana to Alabama. New Orleans was on the fringe of the storm and suffered no severe damage. Ships at the Balize experienced a strong gale for 24 hours that only grounded three ships. Lakes Pontchartrain and Borgne rose five to six feet during the storm, with farms along the lakes flooded by the storm tide. Forty-one lives were lost on the U.S. Man of War schooner Firebrand, a 150-ton gunship, while it lay off the west end of Cat Island. At 15 least 43 people died in all. 1926 - A hurricane came inland near Daytona Beach, FL. The hurricane caused 2.5 million dollars damage in eastern Florida, including the Jacksonville area. (David Ludlum) 1939 - The temperature at Lewiston, ID, hit 117 degrees to establish an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1943: A "surprise," Category 2 Hurricane moved ashore near Galveston, Texas. Due to World War II, all news underwent censorship, including any weather reports making this the surprise storm. The hurricane killed 19 people and caused millions of dollars in damages. Of particular note, Lieutenant Colonel Joe Duckworth and Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair flew an AT-6 Texan into the eye of the hurricane, becoming the first flight into the eye of the storm. 1943 - On a whim, and flying a single engine AT-6, Lieutenant Ralph O'Hair and Colonel Duckworth were the first to fly into a hurricane. It started regular Air Force flights into hurricanes. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Thunderstorms in Minnesota spawned a tornado which moved in a southwesterly direction for a distance of thirty miles across Rice County and Goodhue County. Trees were uprooted and tossed about like toys, and a horse lifted by the tornado was observed sailing horizontally through the air. Thunderstorms drenched La Crosse, WI, with 5.26 inches of rain, their second highest 24 hour total of record. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Hot weather prevailed in the north central U.S. Williston, ND, reported a record high of 108 degrees. Thunderstorms produced severe weather in the eastern U.S., and in southeastern Texas. Richland County, SC, was soaked with up to 5.5 inches of rain. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced locally heavy rains in the southwestern U.S. Yuma, AZ, experienced their most severe thunderstorm of record. Strong thunderstorm winds, with unofficial gusts as high as 95 mph, reduced visibilities to near zero in blowing dust and sand. Yuma got nearly as much rain in one hour as is normally received in an entire year. The storm total of 2.55 inches of rain was a record 24 hour total for July. Property damage due to flash flooding and high winds was in the millions. (Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms produced severe weather from Wisconsin and northern Illinois to New England, with 103 reports of large hail and damaging winds through the day. Thunderstorms in Wisconsin produced hail three inches in diameter near Oshkosh, and wind gusts to 65 mph at Germantown. (The National Weather Summary)

Debris clouds from PA overnight storms which were widespread at a point

Looks quite nice Sunday - Tue , a few below normal before steaming/warming back up by Wed (8/3). A bit back and forth from there.

84/ 75. Partly sunny and very warm. Clouds from PA storms around and we'll see how cloudy it gets. Hot one on tap, mid / upper 90s, pending on clouds and any showers/storms some of the hot spots could touch near 100 but think we'll be a bit below ,97/98. Some scattered storms later mainly north along the periphery of the flexing W. Atl Ridge and hook to flow the western strong heat into the area. Fri (7/28) continued hot as peak of heat is ushered in 850 MB temperatures > 18cwith scattered or isolated storms in the pm. More mid - upper 90s and near records heat. Sat (7/30) continue very hot 850 MB temperatures get to 20c with mid / upper 90s. Caveat for 100 degree readings will be timing of the front as the W. Atl Ridge contracts, clouds from storms to the west and north could get in the way of exceeding upper 90s. The front does come through by the overnight into Sunday with storms. Sunday (7/30) dries out and is down near normal into the 80s. Kind of a back and forth near normal / dry 7/30 - 8/2 before steaming and warming back up Thu (8/3) - Sat (8/5) before next front. The western Atlantic Ridge expanding west with western ridge sustained forces a more humid and increases storm chances southerly flow with trough backing into the GL. Looks to go overall warm and storms chances by the second week of next month.

We'll see if debris clouds are around in the AM from the PA storms which should fizzle overnight.

7/26 EWR: 92 BLM: 90 TEB: 89 LGA: 89 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 88 NYC: 87 TTN: 87 ISP: 86 ACY: 85 JFK: 84

7/26 EWR: 92 BLM: 90 TEB: 89 LGA: 89 New Brnswck: 89 PHL: 88 NYC: 87 TTN: 87 ISP: 86 ACY: 85 JFK: 84

Records: Highs: EWR: 99 (2005) NYC: 98 (1940) LGA: 98 (1940) Lows: EWR: 57 (1953) NYC: 55 (1920) LGA: 62 (1976) Historical: 1819 - Twin cloudbursts of fifteen inches struck almost simultaneously at Catskill, NY, and Westfield, MA. Flash flooding resulted in enormous erosion. (David Ludlum) 1874: Torrential rainfall brought flash flooding to Pittsburg, Pennsylvania. 1890: During the morning hours, an estimated F3 tornado went through the southern part of Lawrence, Massachusetts. The tornado left 500 people homeless as the tornado destroyed 35 homes and damaged 60 others. 1897: Jewel, Maryland received 14.75 inches of rain in a 24 hour period. This record is currently the oldest, state rainfall record in the United States. All other state rainfall records are in the 1900s and 2000s 1931: A swarm of grasshoppers descends on crops throughout the American heartland, devastating millions of acres. Iowa, Nebraska, and South Dakota, already in the midst of a bad drought, suffered tremendously from this disaster. 1943 - Tishomingo, OK, baked in the heat as the mercury soared to 121 degrees, a state record. (The Weather Channel) 1960 - The temperature at Salt Lake City, UT, hit 107 degrees, an all-time record high for that location. (The Weather Channel) 1979: Tropical Storm Claudette stalled over Alvin, Texas, inundating the town with 45 inches of rain in 42 hours. The total included 43 inches in 24 hours, which is the maximum 24-hour rainfall in American history. 1987 - Thunderstorms developing along a cold front produced hail two inches in diameter in McHenry County, IL, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Auburn, ME. A wind gust of 90 mph was recorded at Blairstown, NJ, before the anemometer broke. The high winds were associated with a small tornado. The record high of 88 degrees at Beckley, WV, was their sixth in a row. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced large hail and damaging winds in the Middle Atlantic Coast Region, and in the south central U.S. Eight cities in the northwestern and north central U.S. reported record high temperatures for the date. Salem, OR, hit 103 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Morning thunderstorms produced heavy rain in southeastern Texas, with more than three inches reported at the Widllife Refuge in southwestern Chambers County. Evening thunderstorms produced severe weather in Montana, with wind gusts to 62 mph reported at Helena. Eight cities from Maine to Minnesota reported record high temperatures for the date, including Newark, NJ, with a reading of 99 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data)

Euro has scattered storms mainly north / west for Saturday I'm sure it'll change 100 times with timing of the front.