SACRUS

81/64 here. 850s at >15C argued for quick surge with any duration of sunshine

72/62 getting humid. Sun is in/out

Sun starting to breakthrough here and up to 65

Clouds in the way today as front south of prior projections. Still, with enough sun later this PM could see a surge to near 80 in CNJ up to EWR. Not sure how much clearing we get though.

This may as currently modeled could see a similar progression to 2016 where the first 2 weeks plus featured days that were cooler than normal and generally had highs low low 70s or below. Then surge of heat by the 22nd or so.

Any breaks of sun tomorrow with duration should yield 80 or higher but it could stay cloudy with onshore east of the city. Beyond that May 4 - May 10 look close to normal overall before the next brief shot at 80+ May 11 - 12. Even Steven first half of may.

63 / cloudy and some light sporadic showers the next few hours.

Looks like a tendency for torugh to dig into the Plains/GL then pass through the NE May 7 - May 15. Kind of a back and forth 70s some 80s on the east side of the trough with S/SW flow then cooldown. Would suspect its wetter overall through the first two weeks of May. Before then shot at >80 Sunday 5/2 and Tue 5/4.

2021 predictions EWR: 38 - 40 LGA: 35 - 37 NYC: 24 - 26 New Brnswck: 38 - 40

Highs 4/28 EWR: 89 ACY: 89 New Brnswck: 87 PHL: 87 TEB: 86 BLM: 86 TTN: 85 NYC: 85 LGA: 83 ISP:74 JFK: 73

87 here , warmest since Sep 10 and maybe Sep 4th if we go warmer.

Very chilly airmass with 850 temps -5c to -10c on guidance April 21 - 23. Kind of a roller coaster bias cool the next week to 10 days. Window for any brief but stronger warmth may come on the 28-29 or 30th? Interestingly cooler without the big precip totals, cant imagine that lasts to much longer...

48 ENE winds clouds and drizzle.

Looks like the coldest of this period (4/10 - 4/25) is setting up to be 4/15-16 and then again 4/19 - 4/21. It still would not surprise me to get on the warmer side of the as the trough pulls out for a period in the 4/26 - 4/30 period and end the month warm. it doesnt look sustained but a quick 2-3 day warmup may still evolve before May.

Full sun and up to 65 now.

Picked up 0.13 here. Rain ending clouds look to linger till at least noon. Those mostly sunny call looked off by 8 hours on the timing

I agree 4/9 - 4/21 looks cool with onshore flow issues and then perhaps a arctic shot towards 4/18. I do think we see a sharp rebound the end of of April and some hear may be in store the closing week.

It may be close but i expect a much warmer second half and some hear later in April. Until then i think we are dealing with cut off city as ULL starts in 4/5 i New England then more ULL along or into the EC 4/8 - 4/12. Onshore flow will throw a wrench into any warmer guidance 4/5 - 4/9. Not sure we hit 60s each of those days next week.

Expected us to deal with the ULL cut off near New England 4/4 - 4/9 so with that came the onshore flow and potential cloudiness. It may windup near normal but temps may stay capped in the upper 50s / low 60s max and perhaps a 40s day or two depending on the influnce of the onshore /NE flow. April should see a migration to a much warmer second half and feature a warm or hot period later or to close in the month.

It looks like any moderation by Easter (4/4) is short lived and cut off / ULL backs down into New England, it wont be nearly as cold as 4/1 - 4/2 but onshore flow looks likely NE o ENE persistent flow in the 4/5 - 4/8 period keeping daytime highs cool to chilly.. Would have been an otherwise warmer pattern with a deep trouh into the WC and strong ridge into the GL but the ULL is forced down under the ridge. Thats' why some models had the stronger warmup once passed the 4/3 but its looking more like ULL disturbs the warmup through the 8th or so. Id be surprised if the warmer scenario comes to fruition. I think April is back end warm to hot.

April 2 - April 5 looks like the peak of the chill, then moderation beyond there. Could be backdoor/onshore city for a period though so the warmup may not be that warm during the day.

http://synoptic.envsci.rutgers.edu/site/imgs/vis_nj_anim.gif

Something tells me that 3/29 - 4/4 is probably much wetter and it wouldn't surprise me the prior period trends a bit wetter too once past Tuesday.. Beyond there some stronger ridging into the east towards 4/4 or 5th.

91 days till the summer solstice / sun angle now on par with mid September. Made it down to a cool radiated 26 last night now up to 47 and expect to be guidance again and top out mid/upper 60s