SACRUS

Highs: EWR: 105 (1953) NYC: 102 (1953) LGA: 102 (1953) JFK: 93 (1973) Lows: EWR: 49 (2017) NYC: 51 (1886) LGA: 56 (2017) JFK: 53 (1949) Historical: 1775: The Independence Hurricane This savage hurricane raged from North Carolina to Newfoundland. Heavy rains began to fall across the colony on the 29th of August and slowly increased with time. The coast was ravaged from Currituck to Chincoteague. Wharves and storehouses on the waterfront of Norfolk were devastated. Bridges were carried away by the raging waters. At Williamsburg, mill dams broke and corn stalks were blown flat. Winds blew furiously until 10:00 p.m. Many ships were damaged as they were thrown ashore at Norfolk, Hampton, and York. Around twenty-five vessels were run ashore, or "irrecoverable gone." The gun ship H.M.S. Mercury was driven hard aground on Portsmouth Point at 5:00 p.m. on the 2nd. It was stranded in two feet of water for eight days (Shomette). The Liberty became "hopelessly stranded" in Back River, near Hampton. A number of locals boarded her, captured the crew, secured her goods, and set the ship afire in the first outright act of war. A full blockade of Hampton Roads thereafter brought shipping to a halt for three months. At least twenty-five died due to shipwreck.(Ref. The Independence Hurricane) 1882: Possibly the first photograph of a lightning strike was taken on this day by William Jennings in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. 1887: The U.S. Army Signal Service station in Greenville, SC reported a minimum temperature of 50°F. This observation at Greenville still stands as the record low for the day. Additional stations across the state recorded low temps in the low 50's. 1935 - Perhaps the most intense hurricane ever to hit the U.S. struck the Florida Keys with 200 mph winds. The hurricane produced a fifteen foot tide and waves thirty feet high. 400 persons perished in the storm on that Labor Day. The barometric pressure at Matecumbe Bay FL hits a record low for the U.S. of 26.35 inches. (David Ludlum) 1950 - The temperature at Mecca, CA, soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel) 1950: The temperature at Mecca, CA soared to 126 degrees to establish a U.S. record for the month of September. The low that morning was 89 degrees. (The Weather Channel) (Ref. WxDoctor) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1953: Boston, Massachusetts had 100 °F for the second time ever in September. Chicago, IL hit 101° for the second day in a row and the tenth of 11 consecutive days with a high temperature at 90° or higher. (Ref. NOAA Boston Weather Events) 1961: Denver, CO picked up 4.2 inches of snow, the earliest measurable snow for the Mile High City. (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1982: A wind gust of 121 mph was reported at the Chautauqua County Airport near Jamestown, NY causing an estimated half million dollars in damages to the terminal building, planes, cars and landing instruments. Rainfall totals exceeded two inches in places. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985 1985 - After teasing residents along the Gulf of Mexico for two days, Hurricane Elena finally came ashore at Biloxi MS. The hurricane, packing winds of 127 mph, caused more than a billion dollars damage. (The Weather Channel) 1987 - Late evening thunderstorms in the Northern Plains Region produced wind gusts to 75 mph at Jordan MT, and a ""hot flash"" at Redig SD. The temperature at Redig rose from 66 degrees at 10 PM to 86 degrees at 11 PM as thunderstorm winds gusted to 36 mph. Nine cities in the Upper Ohio Valley, the Tennessee Valley and the Central Gulf Coast States reported record low temperatures for the date, including Elkins WV with a reading of 38 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1988 - Unseasonably hot weather prevailed in the northwestern U.S. Afternoon highs of 98 degrees at Olympia WA, 98 degrees at Seattle WA, 105 degrees at Portland OR, and 110 degrees at Medford OR, established records for the month of September. Quillayute WA equalled their September record with an afternoon high of 97 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1989 - Eight cities in the Gulf Coast Region reported record high temperatures for the date as readings soared into the upper 90s. Houston TX and Port Arthur TX hit 99 degrees. Late evening thunderstorms, developing ahead of a cold front, produced wind gusts to 63 mph at Dickinson ND, and golf ball size hail in North Dakota and Nebraska. Winds along the cold front itself gusted to 62 mph at Buffalo SD. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1996: After teasing the entire Atlantic coast with winds as high as 140 mph, Hurricane Edouard skirted New England without making landfall. Hurricane force winds were recorded on Nantucket and Cape Cod, but wind damage was relatively minor. 1996: Large swells from Hurricane Fran knocked five people out of an 18-foot fishing boat in Jupiter Inlet, FL. The Coast Guard rescued all five people. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: An F3 tornado roared into downtown Ladysmith, WI at mid-afternoon, heavily damaging 64 blocks of the business district. Fortunately, it was Labor Day, and most of the stores were closed for the holiday or the toll would have been much worse. The National Weather Service came under fire for not issuing a tornado warning before the storm struck. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: Indianapolis, IN was drenched with 7.20 inches of rain on this date for its greatest single day rainfall on record. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2006: Tropical Storm Ernesto dumped 8.93 inches of rain on Norfolk, VA for the city's greatest single day rainfall on record. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) (Sep. 1st-2nd) Heavy rains from the remnants of Tropical Storm Ernesto fell on SE PA. In Schwenksville, a man jumped into an overflowing retention basin to try to rescue his dog. The dog was sucked into and through the outflow pipe and survived; his master drowned. (Ref. Weather Guide Calendar with Phenomenal Weather Events 2011 Accord Pub. 2010, USA) 2008: Northeastern Illinois: In Chicago the thermometer at O'Hare IAP hits 94°F (34.4°C), and Midway tops out at 95°F (35°C), the first such high there in 761 days, and the warmest day of the year Kankakee, New Lennox, Plainfield and Palatine (my home town hit 97°F. (Ref. WxDoctor) 2002: An F3 tornado destroyed much of the downtown area of Ladysmith, Wisconsin. Overall damage was estimated at $20 million, but there were no fatalities.

Yeah just surpassed 1991 with the largest discrepency between EWR / PHL with PHL having 14 more. EWR does have the 6 89 degree days PHL only 2.

69 / 67 clouds NE flow. Ugly day sun about an hour to 90 min drive in PA and SNJ otherwise socked in the marine layer and some drizzle at times. Flow comes around Thu/Fri and could see some overperforming high Thursday warm / hot spots touch 90 inland otheriwse mid-upper 80s. Clouds and showers Friday keep it into the 80s for most. Onshore flow keeps the long labor day weekend neaer normal and hopefully dry - a california-ish feel. Beyond there warms up a bit and back and forth progressing towards and overall warm / above normal by the mid month period where trough into the WC could push ec ridge.

Today's Highs: PHL: 93 BLM: 90 New Brnswck: 89 ACY: 89 TTN: 88 EWR: 87 TEB: 84 NYC: 82 JFK: 80 * no intra hour after 2pm LGA: 80 ISP: 78

87 / 75 sun out we'll see how warm we go 850 MB temps pushing >17c

Records: Highs: EWR: 98 (2010) NYC: 97 (1953) LGA: 96 (2010) JFK: 92 (2012) Lows: EWR: 50 (1934) NYC: 51 (1869) LGA: 55 (1967) JFK: 54 (1985) Historical: 1859: One of the largest geomagnetic storms on record occurred on this day in 1859. 1862: The Battle of Ox Hill (or Chantilly) is also known as the only major Civil War battle to have been fought during a storm. “A severe thunderstorm erupted, resulting in limited visibility and an increased dependence on the bayonet, as the rain soaked the ammunition of the infantry and made it useless.” From Taylor, Paul. He Hath Loosed the Fateful Lightning: The Battle of Ox Hill (Chantilly), September 1, 1862. 1869: Cleveland Abbe issued the first Weather Bulletin for the city of Cincinnati, Ohio. It contained a few observations telegraphed from distant observers and the “probabilities” for the next day. The bulletin was written by hand. 1894 - A forest fire driven by high winds burned down the town of Hinkley, MN, killing 418 persons. (David Ludlum) 1894: The Great Hinckley Fire, which burned an area of at least 200,000 acres or perhaps more than 250,000 acres including the town of Hinckley, Minnesota occurred on this day. The official death count was 418 though the actual number of fatalities was likely higher. 1897 - Hailstone drifts six feet deep were reported in Washington County, IA. (The Weather Channel) 1914 - The town of Bloomington, MI, was deluged with 9.78 inches of rain in 24 hours to establish a state record. (31st-1st) (The Weather Channel) 1928: Leslie Gray from the Weather Bureau in San Franciso was the first weather forecaster to be deployed to a wildfire. 1935: The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane began intensifying from a tropical storm early in the day to a Category 2 by the end of this day. Over the next 24 hours the cyclone would go through "bombogenesis" intensifying to a Category 5 storm with maximum sustained winds estimated at 160 mph with gusts exceeding 200 mph. This was the first Category 5 storm to hit the U.S. The records aren't good enough to say whether any earlier storms that hit the USA would be Category 5 by today's standards. (Ref. Jack Williams, USA Today.com) 1939: Lightning hit and killed 837 sheep bedded down for the night on top of Pine Canyon in Northwestern Utah. Both the sheep and the earth were wet from the passing thunderstorm, causing the lightning's electrical discharge to move completely through the herd. The sheepherder was in a tent, was knocked temporary unconscious but escaped death. (Ref. National Weather Service in Utah Lightning Information) 1950: Palm Springs, CA set their all-time September high temperature record with 121°. Other daily record highs included: Yuma, AZ: 123°, Phoenix, AZ: 116°, Las Vegas, NV: 113°, Sacramento, CA: 108°, Tucson, AZ: 107°, Stockton, CA: 105°, Bishop, CA: 104°, Winnemucca, NV: 101°, Winslow, AZ: 99°, Reno, NV: 99°, Elko, NV: 97° and Ely, NV: 93°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1952: A cold front brought damaging winds to Fort Worth, Texas, including the Carswell Air Force Base where thirty-five B-36 planes received damage. The anemometer indicated 90 mph winds before being smashed by debris. 1953: A heat wave that began in late August continued into early September continued across parts of the Midwest. Platteville, WI & South Bend, IN recorded their hottest September temperatures with 100° and 99° respectively. Fort Wayne, IN & Muskegon, MI tied their all-time September high temperature record with 100° & 95°. Other daily record highs included: Goshen, IN: 101°, Grand Rapids, MI: 97°, Lansing, MI: 96°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1955 - The temperature at Los Angeles, CA, soared to an all-time high of 110 degrees during an eight day string of 100 degree weather. (David Ludlum) 1961: An F4 tornado traveled through parts of Butler and Bremer Counties in Iowa. Unfortunately, there is limited information in the Storm Data entry about this event. Per Thomas Grazulis in Significant Tornadoes, the tornado began NW of Dumont and ended NE of Horton. Several farms along the path were "leveled". It was reported at one farm that fruit jars were "sucked out of the basement" after the house was swept away. There were 7 injuries reported with this event and zero fatalities. 1974: Lt. Judy Neuffer became the first female to fly a Hurricane Hunter aircraft through the eye of a hurricane. 1979 - A home in Centerville TN was hit by lightning and totally destroyed. It marked the third time that the house had been hit by lightning since being built in 1970. (The Weather Channel) 1983: Record heat gripped parts of the northern Rockies. Several locations recorded record highs for September including: Miles City, MT: 106°, Billings, MT: 103° and Sheridan, WY: 103°. At Billings, it was the 8th consecutive day with high temperatures above 90°. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 1985: Erratic Hurricane Elena baffled forecasters and Gulf Coast residents on the Sunday before Labor Day. The Hurricane had threatened the central Gulf Coast on Friday, only to turn east and spend Saturday menacing the Tampa Bay area with high winds, tides and heavy rains. By lunchtime Sunday, Elena was on the move again, but this time back to the west. The storm reached its minimum pressure of 951 millibars or 28.08 inches of mercury while the storm was 75 miles south of Apalachicola, FL. Elena's maximum reported coastal winds were over Dauphin Island, AL, where sustained winds of 105 mph with gusts to 135 mph were reported. Other maximum gusts reported ranged from 120 mph at Gulfport, MS, to 92 mph at Pensacola, FL. Maximum tides of 10 feet above normal were recorded at Apalachicola, FL, with reports of 6 to 8 feet above normal on Dauphin Island, AL. Approximately 1 million people were evacuated from low lying coastal areas during Elena’s approach. This large evacuation contributed to the fact that there were no deaths in the area of landfall. The four deaths which occurred resulted from falling trees and automobile accidents. One resident died of a heart attack. Total damage ranged from $1 to $1.5 billion dollars.(David Ludlum) (Ref. AccWeather Weather History) 1987 - Cool Canadian air invaded the Midwest. Six cities reported record low temperatures for the date, including Indianapolis IN with a reading of 44 degrees. Hot weather continued in the northwestern U.S. Five cities reported record high temperatures for the date, including Hanover WA, where the mercury soared to 106 degrees. (The National Weather Summary) 1988 - Thunderstorms produced heavy rain in the Upper Mississippi Valley. Ely, MN, was drenched with three inches of rain in two hours, and pelted with one inch hail. The heavy rain flooded streets and basements, and the high water pressure which resulted blew the covers off manholes. (The National Weather Summary)(Storm Data) 1989 - Thunderstorms developing ahead of a cold front produced severe weather in Oklahoma during the late afternoon and evening hours. Thunderstorms produced hail two inches in diameter west of Arapahoe, and wind gusts to 70 mph at Luther and south of Harrah. Early morning thunderstorms over Indiana drenched Kokomo with five to eight inches of rain, and spawned a tornado which injured three persons at Bruce Lake. (The National Weather Summary) (Storm Data) 1999: Erratic Dennis was downgraded to a Tropical Storm as he drifted aimlessly just off Cape Hatteras, NC. Dennis would move southward, then northwestward before making landfall on the 4th with winds of 70 mph. Dennis' heavy rains would set the stage for massive flooding when Hurricane Floyd arrived a few weeks later. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2002: Across southern California, a heat wave sent temperatures soaring to 118° at Dulzura, 113° at Temecula, and 112° at Riverside and Menifee. Temperature gradients were remarkable near the coast. It was 77° at Newport Beach and 107° in Santa Ana, only ten miles difference, 72° in Oceanside Harbor and 87° in Oceanside Airport, only two miles difference, 81° in Sea World to 91° in San Diego - Lindbergh Field, only three miles difference. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2003: By midnight, Indianapolis, IN recorded its wettest day on record with 7.20 inches. (Ref. Wilson Wx. History) 2008: Hurricane Gustav was the second most destructive hurricane of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season. The storm was the seventh tropical cyclone, third hurricane, and second major hurricane of the season. Gustav caused serious damage and casualties in Haiti, the Dominican Republic, Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, Cuba and the United States. Gustav caused at least $6.6 billion (2008 USD) in damages. Gustav triggered the largest evacuation in United States history up to 2008. Once into the Gulf, Gustav gradually weakened because of increased wind shear and dry air. It weakened to a Category 2 hurricane late on August 31, and remained at that intensity until landfall on the morning of September 1 near Cocodrie, Louisiana. In total, an estimated 153 deaths had been attributed to Gustav in the U.S. and Caribbean. 2017: The temperature at Downtown San Francsico reached 106° setting their all-time record high. The previous record was 103° on June 14th, 2000.

74 / 73 mainly cloudy and passing areas of light rain to north. The heat wont make it through the mainly cloudy skies here despite the ridge and 850 MB temps >18c the next 2 days. Any breaks in the clouds could see temps spike to the upper 80s. Weekend is onshore flow dry and hoping its sunny but temps in the 70s to low 80s inland. (9/8) Beyond there overall near to above normal .

August Dep: PHL: +2.3 (7.44) JFK: +1.4 (7.49) ISP: +1.4 (7.94) EWR: +0.9 (10.18) TTN: +0.7 ( 7.69) LGA: +0.3 (7.85) NYC: -0.5 (8.56)

Today's Highs: PHL: 82 EWR: 80 New Brnswck: 80 TEB: 79 LGA: 78 ACY: 78 JFK: 78 * missing intra hour highs NYC: 78 TTN: 78 ISP: 77 BLM: 76

EWR with its 80 degree reading today ties 2015 as having all days this month with a high / max of 80 or above. While not a strongly above normal month, and a wet one, it is quite a feat.

Rain into NE PA

I dumped the latest data and asked AI to summarize: (will do August numbers when they come in, once that happens ill repost) The latest ENSO data continue to strongly support a major El Niño analog package for 2026–27. July 2026 monthly values show Niño 3.4 at +1.73°C, Niño 3 at +2.30°C, Niño 1+2 at +2.91°C, and Niño 4 at +1.42°C. This means the event is not just east-Pacific warm; it also has strong basinwide support. The atmospheric side is also very strongly coupled, with SOI at -4.00 and MEI.v2 at +2.41 for July 2026. ONI is already +1.40 through June, RONI is +1.34 for July, and the subsurface/thermocline indicators are supportive, including strong upper-ocean heat content and a much deeper-than-normal thermocline in the east. Compared with past El Niño events, the best current analogs remain the major-event years: 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83. The 1997 analog still looks best for the explosive east-Pacific component, especially with the very warm Niño 1+2 and Niño 3 regions. The 2015 analog is also very strong because 2026 now has a more basinwide look, with Niño 4 also quite warm. 1982 remains a strong analog for the eventual major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, even though it was not as warm in July as 2026 is now. Secondary analogs include 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, and 1957–58. By category, the top SST-structure analogs are 1997, 2015, 2023, 1972, and 1982. For Niño 3.4 intensity and projected peak, the best analogs are 2015, 1997, 1982, 1972, and 1965. For the far-eastern Pacific / Niño 1+2 component, the best analogs are 1997, 2023, 2015, 1972, and 1965. For Niño 4 / basinwide support, the best matches are 2015, 2002, 2023, 1997, and 2009. For atmospheric coupling using SOI and MEI, the best analogs are 1997, 2015, 1982, 1972, and 1965. Overall, the current blend favors 1997–98 first, 2015–16 second, 1982–83 third, then 1972–73, 2023–24, 1965–66, 1957–58, 1991–92, 2002–03, and 2009–10. Parameter Latest 2026 Reading Period What It Shows Niño 3.4 +1.73°C July 2026 Strong central/east-central El Niño Niño 3 +2.30°C July 2026 Very strong east-central warming Niño 1+2 +2.91°C July 2026 Very strong far-eastern Pacific warming Niño 4 +1.42°C July 2026 Basinwide support, not just coastal/eastern ONI +1.40°C June 2026 El Niño established on 3-month basis RONI +1.34°C July 2026 Strong relative Niño 3.4 signal MEI.v2 +2.41 July 2026 Very strong coupled ocean-atmosphere signal SOI -4.00 July 2026 Very strong atmospheric El Niño response OLR -1.20 July 2026 Enhanced central/eastern Pacific convection Heat Content +2.48 July 2026 Strong subsurface warm support 200mb Zonal Winds -6.79 July 2026 Upper-level easterly anomaly support 20°C Thermocline Depth, 95W +56.28 m July 2026 Much deeper-than-normal eastern thermocline Overall Rank Analog Match Level Main Reason 1 1997–98 Best overall Best blend of rapid onset, east-Pacific warmth, strong MEI, and major-event trajectory 2 2015–16 Very high Best basinwide/intensity match, especially with strong Niño 4 support 3 1982–83 High Excellent major-event trajectory and atmospheric response, though weaker July SSTs 4 1972–73 High Classic eastern-Pacific strong El Niño analog 5 2023–24 Moderate-high Excellent recent east-Pacific analog, but weaker coupling at the same stage 6 1965–66 Moderate-high Good east-Pacific and SOI secondary analog 7 1957–58 Moderate-high Strong historical El Niño, useful secondary analog 8 1991–92 Moderate Decent coupled warm-event analog, but weaker structure 9 2002–03 Moderate More central/basinwide, weaker eastern-Pacific match 10 2009–10 Lower-moderate El Niño winter analog, but weaker summer development/coupling Bottom line: the latest readings strengthen the case that 2026–27 belongs in the major El Niño analog group. The strongest overall comparisons are 1997–98, 2015–16, and 1982–83, with 1972–73 as the best classic eastern-Pacific secondary analog. What makes 2026 stand out is the combination of very warm Niño 1+2, strong Niño 3.4, strong Niño 4, a very negative SOI, and MEI.v2 above +2. That is a much stronger coupled signal than 2023 had at the same point.

One of the odd years PHL had less 90 degree days than northern areas maybe the one exception for NYC sites. EWR has had more than PHL or equal on many occasions. Year EWR PHL LGA NYC JFK 2025 39 37 26 14 15 2024 33 32 21 21 6 2023 29 24 16 12 8 2022 49 48 30 25 16 2021 41 37 25 17 10 2020 31 36 34 20 12 2019 27 35 26 15 7 2018 36 30 38 21 8 2017 22 26 17 13 9 2016 40 46 32 22 15 2015 35 37 20 20 12 2014 15 19 6 8 2 2013 25 20 21 17 9 2012 33 39 28 19 16 2011 31 33 19 20 13 2010 54 55 48 37 32 2009 14 15 8 7 6 2008 22 23 19 12 9 2007 21 24 23 10 7 2006 27 27 22 8 12 2005 37 29 30 23 17 2004 13 9 7 2 1 2003 20 23 17 8 12 2002 41 46 35 32 21 2001 22 23 17 15 8 2000 16 10 12 7 6 1999 33 35 26 27 14 1998 21 31 11 8 5 1997 20 20 17 12 10 1996 9 7 6 3 4 1995 33 49 23 29 15 1994 39 36 22 19 7 1993 49 41 26 39 13 1992 22 14 9 9 6 1991 41 53 34 39 17 1990 26 23 10 12 6 1989 27 19 17 16 9 1988 43 49 26 32 14 1987 37 31 19 22 11 1986 22 33 9 11 8 1985 11 12 8 9 5 1984 22 7 9 10 13 1983 40 41 31 36 26 1982 12 12 6 11 4 1981 21 15 15 16 11 1980 27 36 22 32 11

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