SACRUS

Seasonal numerical forecasting euphoria to the doldrumms . if you go back and check the threats / discussions from Jan 17/18 and the NC storm similar challenges with coastal formation and even some of the same models run to run changes. Each situation is unique and perhaps as we go deeper into the season we can ween off the seasonal trends.

yeah just a little south of 12z by 850 miles

2/18 00z GGEM also a miss

GFS 1/10 of 12z

2/18 00z GFS

Total QPF GFS AI AIGFS:

00z GFS AI AIGFS

00z GFS AI AIGFS:

2/18 00z GFS AI AIGFS

2/18 00z Summary Total QPF NYC ICON: 0 GFS AI AIGFS: 1.4 GFS: 0.3 GGEM: 0.3 UKMET: 0.2

2/18 00Z ICON goes the wrong way Total QPF

Warmest daily dep from avg since Jan 22nd.

Today's split EWR: 48 / 34 (+5) NYC 47 / 35 (+5)

18z GFS AI AIFGS Total QPF 2/22 -2/23-24

18z GFS AI AIGFS