CaryWx

23 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Lol at the Wake County gradient 

BornAgain gets crushed up there in Buried Fork

Why that's a cemetery!

Moderate snow in Cary

Snow/Rain mix here in Cary

14 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Very true but if it comes down hard enough.....

Maybe if soil temps were being driven more from the low 40s or something.  Not so much coming in behind soil temps in the 60s.  Count on plenty of snow runoff up there in Wet Spoon, Va.

There's another thread for this right?

33 minutes ago, Jonathan said:

Climate change.

1 hour ago, Wow said:

Winters more often will be a sea of warm with small islands of cold.  

Why do you say that?

50 minutes ago, RT1980 said:

They have been showing change, albeit, it keeps getting delayed.  I know it’s not the best setup synoptically and the past few years haven’t been kind but isn’t today the first day of winter? 

Yes, but we don't really get the luxury of a full astronomical winter.  About 2/3rds at best.

Heads up for NC.  Christmas Day may not be so warm as projected right now.

Well, it's a classic winter climo NC snow map that's for sure

Finally, some honest to goodness unrealistic fantasy storms.  Winter tracking '21-'22 has begun!

The BAMx weather guy seems bullish on it.  The reason I mention that is because over on 33andrain last year the posters were calling for the pattern change and BAMx was continually saying that isn't happening, to the point they sent out a tweet about folks calling them out on being wrong.  Turns out BAMx was right about the pattern last year so I'm taking more stock in their LR thinking this time around.

Bold model strategy coming into Christmas week.  Lets' see if it pays off.

I know enough that a -PNA sucks.  This one looks strong and steady for most of the month.

1 hour ago, JoshM said:

Anyone looking at the 18z GFS might need to put some welding goggles on first.

smoke show?

1 hour ago, griteater said:

We're on the 2011-2012 / 1999-2000 La Nina plan right now.  Hopefully we can get off the plan in the case of 11-12, or find a deep wintry few weeks in the case of 99-00.

Hi ya Grit.  Remember winter '99-'00 quite well.  Had the big (record?) snow in the Triangle around mid/late January.  Ironically about 2 weeks prior I recall working in my backyard and taking a nap on the deck with only a sweatshirt and it felt warm.  Crazy winter swings but sometimes they produce the big ones. 

23 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Harsh and early cold snap sweeping China & Korean Peninsula as we speak.

Winter storm warnings are in force with Beijing recording its first snowfall of the season (23 days earlier than average). https://t.co/FuSBRBaiZU

The accuweather long term forecasts (which mean nothing really) are now showing several snow chances the 2 weeks following Christmas. FWIW

On 11/4/2021 at 12:14 PM, ILMRoss said:

GFS already in midwinter form 

In a typical January cold this would have been our storm?  Throwing only enough precip back to the Triangle to avoid a warm nose at 850, then moving out to sea.

Playing the waiting game.  Not trusting the longer term looks for another month then we'll have decent idea what winter's really going to be around here...or what potential there is rather.

I'll take my chances.  Last year we had average winter temps.  It felt like winter in NC.  We never got a good +PNA so no real cold air shots to sustain a good snowfall opportunity.  In this part of the country we need an extreme combination to occur.  The static-ness of last year did not afford that really.   We might see one or two of those occur in a La Nina

Next week's pattern trending a little cooler than previous as well

GFS LR has some decent fall air coming into the east in about 2 weeks.

21 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Please tell me you’re joking 

For northern VA? No, I'm sure you'll see lower but for Cary, NC. 

In the accuweather forecast though (nothing of value for sure) I was surprised it did not show any mini cool/cold snap which is kind of unusual. 

Could be all different next week.

Looking into the 60 day forecast thru Oct 31st  I don't see one evening after this weekend forecast below 60 in Sept nor one below 50 for Oct.  Not going to be very fall like from this early view anyway.