CaryWx

23 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z GFS agrees with EURO,  suppressed 

Not bad placement on the +120

6 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

I do feel a March snowstorm is coming for most here 

If we do get the unusual measurable snowfall in March, like you I believe this would be the type of year (winter) for it.

7 minutes ago, griteater said:

Latest Model Surface Temperatures at 6AM Thursday at Hickory (HKY) / Greensboro (GSO) / Raleigh-Durham (RDU)

Model: HKY / GSO / RDU

Euro: 33 / 30 / 33

GFS: 32 / 29 / 31

GFS Para: 33 / 29 / 31

CMC: 30 / 28 / 30

ICON: 31 / 29 / 31

HRRR: 32 / 30 / 32

3km NAM: 32 / 30 32

2.5km Canadian RDPS: 30 / 27 / 32

Thanks Grit

5 minutes ago, Ravens 95 said:

Thanks to you and bullcity. If i were still in NOVA I wouldn't have to ask, it would just be snow and more snow

I'm in Cary and not really changing any of my MO for this event if that means anything wrt to your location

Just glad it looks like Cary is going to escape all this.

Just now, NCSNOW said:

This is likely overdone for Wake right? Or cold biased?

Just now, BullCityWx said:

Euro drops the least amount of ice here and it's still basically double warning criteria. 

How does it look for Wake?

Frozen Fountain Inn

Just now, HKY_WX said:

Yea if you just look at the overall pattern at 48 - 72 hours on the euro (500mb/SLP), it's pretty classic looking. From a IMBY perspective, I'm not sure how RDU will fair at this point. We would need the cooler trends to continue to get anything more than advisory criteria ice. That said, the more classic CAD areas look good for WSW and Icestorm Warning criteria ice.

We don't really have a lot of time for much more trending really do we?

I don't know that I've ever seen this much overcast at one time over the continental US

40 minutes ago, tarheelwx said:

Can you provide some guidance on how you read that sounding and how you know it is sleet?  The warm nose looks awfully warm and thick.

 

Thanks in advance.

TW

900-925mb area is below freezing with all three indicators.  That's the sleet zone. 

3 minutes ago, Avdave said:

FZ DZ reporting at RDU now

Im too lazy to go outside and see here but Im two miles away

32/31 now

Yes.  Yes we have that

Looks like I'm in the clear for anything nasty.  I'll take that

7 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Some tv mets seem to be walking back their “no or little ice accumulation expected” forecasts.  No accumulation has become glaze possible.  Glaze possible has become up to 0.10”.  Up to 0.10” has become up to 0.20”.

over 0.20" starts to become the flicky flicker

4 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

By 6 Am , the HRRR already has us getting over 1/4" of ICE

Pretty solid chance you will be Frozen Fork tomorrow morning.

8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

30* might do some light work on us but those 28s* are going to be grim for a few folks

37 here

2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

18z GFS for 12z Tuesday 

You don't get good weather with temp extremes like that <40miles apart

2 hours ago, BornAgain13 said:

The NAM will be interesting when it gets in range for Tuesday 

Don't get too anxious.  Dry Folk is likely to just be Wet Spoon 

59 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Ok you are right and I am sorry. I have not been doing well outside of weather with a friend permanently damaged health wise by COVID and he lost his dad to the illness. I suppose I let that carry over to my posts here without thinking it through first. Anyway, I am awaiting the RAH discussion to see their line of thought given the latest runs for next week.

Good to focus on the important things eyewall and maybe consider the less potentially disappointing distractions.   After all this is just weather.

10 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Forecasting in areas that aren’t sandwiched between mountains on one side and the ocean on the other must be nice...

Yeah, not just rip & read from model outputs for sure

5 minutes ago, wake4est said:

Yikes.  Where did the low go?

euro didn't form the coastal here did it? which is in question going forward.  

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The fly in the ointment with all this is A.  appalachian mountains B. dense cold air.  

Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow.  It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow.  = ice opportunities.

We do need some cold at 900 to 925 Pack or else might be facing the flicker, flicker & out

Nothing attractive about those map graphics at all.  Just ugly