michsnowfreak

I was specifically referring to winter. Keep in mind, any changes in climate over the course of decades will not be even. Winters of the 1930s-50s were easily our most tame on record here. Winters of the 1930s & 50s were warmer than the 2000s or 2010s. But moreso then temps you have the trend of meager snowfall during that timeframe. Add those two factors together, easily a period of winters one would like to forget. Summers were also hot during this timeframe, in fact the # of hot days the 1930s-50s saw werent even touched at Detroit til the 2010s, and we have already regressed a bit in the 2020s (tho only half over). Summer afternoons overall were hotter back then, but nights were cooler. Autumns were similar, springs much cooler.

March was cold but dry here after a snowstorm on the 1st, but Dec-Feb was snowy.

I did not run the numbers against the coldest 30-year normals, aka 1961-90. If I have time I'll run them for Detroit against the cold 1961-90 normals and the mild 1931-60 normals.

I actually referenced this winter earlier in this thread. 2017-18 here was an excellent winter snow-wise, snowcover wise, and also saw the longest sub-20F stretch on record for Detroit. Every month from Nov 2017 thru Apr 2018 was colder than avg except Feb. And even, Feb was memorable for its frequent and deep snow, and was running below avg temp wise through the 18th…then a monster warm spell happened the last 9 days of the month. The 9 days, which averaged around +14F above avg, completely erased Febs temp departure and made it a +3F month, which made the winter as a whole finish only around a degree below avg, whereas winter thru Feb 13th was running a solid 3.5F colder than avg

Similar here. Very snowy winter, temps not too far off avg.

I must have accidentally looked at 1991-20 normals. But also, I came up with 32.2F at boston for 2017-18. I always do the average by days, not calendar months, since Feb having less days will give it a bias depending on if Feb was cold or mild.

The DJF temp in 2004-05 at BOS was 30.9F. The 1971-00 normals were 31.8F

Since 2000, these are the winters that finished below average temperatures, using whatever normals applied at the time (1971-00, 1981-10, 1991-20) for BOS, DTW, BUF BOSTON 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 (using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2009-10, 2017-18, 2020-21) DETROIT 2000-01 2002-03 2008-09 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 2021-22 (using the current 1991-20 normals you can add 2003-04, 2004-05, 2007-08) BUFFALO 2000-01 2002-03 2003-04 2004-05 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2013-14 2014-15 2017-18 (no additional winters when using the current 1991-20 normals)

Last summer was very comfortable and void of heat in MI so I figured we were doomed this year. But its not been bad. Outside of that heatwave in mid June, it's been surprisingly pleasant since late June. It was actually Fall-like after Beryl passed.

He has meltdowns if you don't align with his one track mindset. I really thought it was going to be a very hot summer. Been saying that for a while. We lucked out with a below avg summer last year (when I pointed out that the 2023 max of DTW of 90 was the lowest since 1915, CC said a stat like that was making a big deal of nothing or something like that)...plus the anticipated switch from nino to nina. It all screamed hot summer. What we got instead (here) is one heatwave in June. It was the first heatwave in 2 years and miserable, but definitely over hyped. June finished 12th warmest but thanks heavily to low temps, as the avg high was only 21st hottest. July to date is running cooler than average and the avg high temp so far for July is 86th hottest (or 62nd coldest). The summer high temps are what makes or breaks a hot summer, but the low temps in recent years have done the heavy lifting. I could not care less how hot it is in the south or west, just as I could not care less how cold it's been in the UK. I care about what it is in Michigan, and it's better than I expected!

I definitely expected a hotter summer than what we are seeing. Other than that heatwave in June (which was overforecast as is) it hasn't been bad at all. Now it appears that after a few warm, humid days we will see a nice cool down later in the week for some incredible weather during the hottest part of the year.

Ninas often are big on gradients, so the north/south difference is even greater than climo. Southern Michigan already averages more than double annual snowfall than southern Ohio, but it wouldn't be odd at all for a Nina winter to see 125% of avg in S MI with 75% of avg in S OH. I assume the same applies in NE

Cool. Put the Great Lakes on your bucket list. Even in the worst, warmest winters it snows plenty of times. In the good winters, it can snow near daily.

Do you ever travel to see snow?

In a way, more moisture would benefit both regions in different ways. Your area would continue to get those whopper storms with increasing frequency, even if you sacrifice smaller storms. It seems many northeast locations have their biggest storm on record in the past 2 decades, and I see no reason why that doesnt continue. My area would continue to chug along w/ light to moderate snowfalls that get enhanced by the Great Lakes. Some people get so bent out of shape over "how much has this placed warmed or that place warmed" they forget that cold winter climates are still cold winter climates. Below average snow seasons will happen. How can they not? Average is not average if its always above (as it was starting to seem like by 2015). Warmer winters will suck for snowpack but it also seems to increase the frequency of storms with blinding wet snow & thundersnow (as we experienced several times during the last 2 warm winters). As an all-around winter weather weenie, I rarely go into a winter truly worried about snowfall. Its more about how the patterns will cooperate and how much or little cold/ice-covered lakes/snowcovered landscape will I get to enjoy.

More moisture is definitely a good thing for the Great Lakes region. Snowfall continues to do fine even in warm winters (yes last winter sucked snow wise, I'm talking overall)

The "dry tongue" over DTW was very evident on radar. Just a shame such a robust system goes in the books as rather ordinary.

In recent years the warming nights in summer are by far the most noticeable factor locally. We still get the occasional cool summer night, but not nearly with frequency we used to. I attribute it to increasing humidity, as the extreme summer maxes are way down the past few decades save for a few years, despite overall hot summers. The 30 year averages at Detroit show no clear cut trend re: max or min warming more than the other, esp with the 1960s-70s-80s cold dip. WINTER 1881-1910: 32.3 / 20.0 1891-1920: 31.5 / 19.3 1901-1930: 32.1 / 19.6 1911-1940: 33.2 / 20.5 1921-1950: 34.0 / 21.2 1931-1960: 34.3 / 21.6 1941-1970: 33.6 / 20.8 1951-1980: 33.1 / 19.7 1961-1990: 32.8 / 18.6 1971-2000: 33.9 / 19.7 1981-2010: 34.5 / 20.9 1991-2020: 35.1 / 21.7 SUMMER 1881-1910: 78.9 / 61.0 1891-1920: 79.0 / 61.3 1901-1930: 78.9 / 61.3 1911-1940: 80.2 / 61.7 1921-1950: 80.9 / 61.7 1931-1960: 81.7 / 61.7 1941-1970: 81.3 / 61.1 1951-1980: 81.3 / 60.2 1961-1990: 81.2 / 59.8 1971-2000: 81.3 / 60.4 1981-2010: 81.4 / 61.6 1991-2020: 81.9 / 62.6

Afternoon temps in the 60s with stiff northwest winds absolutely gave a taste of Fall today!

Thanks for clearing that up. 1886-87, 1926-27, 1933-34, 1995-96, 2005-06, 2010-11, & 2020-21. Not a bad dataset at all!

After missing almost everything this summer, got soaked with 3.48" in a 20 hour period. DTW was dryslotted and only got 1.31"

So to clarify, that would be winters: 1885-86, 1925-26, 1932-33. 1994-95, 2004-05, 2009-10, & 2019-20?

The 2017-18 winter avg temp at Buffalo was 27.0F, which is 0.9F colder than avg using 1991-20 normals, and 0.4F colder than average using the 1981-10 normals. ****** Side note about 2017-18 here. It was an excellent winter snow-wise, snowcover wise, and also saw the longest sub-20F stretch on record for Detroit. Every month from Nov 2017 thru Apr 2018 was colder than avg except Feb. And even, Feb was memorable for its frequent and deep snow, and was running below avg temp wise through the 18th…then a monster warm spell happened the last 9 days of the month. The 9 days, which averaged around +14F above avg, completely erased Febs temp departure and made it a +3F month, which made the winter as a whole finish only around a degree below avg, whereas winter thru Feb 13th was running a solid 3.5F colder than avg

Last colder than avg winter for Buffalo was 2017-18. However, it was the only 1 of the previous 9 winters that was colder than average (1 other winter, 2018-19, was very close to avg). However, 8 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average. In Detroit we only have to go back to 2021-22 to find a colder than avg winter. Only 2 of our past 9 winters were colder than average (and another 2 were very close to average) but 9 of the 13 winters prior to that were colder than average. Im feeling good about the upcoming winter here, esp snow-wise. El Nino to La Nina transition is normally just what the snow lover ordered in the Great Lakes. It usually comes with some rainstorms and aggravating snowpack-depleting thaws, but Ninas are rarely boring winters.

It was pretty much as I expected. Hot, very humid, and miserable, but it's intensity way overblown by some of the media.