michsnowfreak

I only got 5" Nov 21 2015 when you and jonger got slammed. It was gorgeous scenic snow but a big miss of heavier totals (and I forgot I had a 5.5 snow in Feb 16 oops. I was going by memory lol). I've been measuring snow since 95-96. The only winters without a 6+ storm: 96-97, 97-98, 99-00, 03-04, 11-12 & 15-16

These are all valid points. But again. The tweet flat out said don't expect these amounts because of compaction. Again, whenever you see reports of a major lake effect snow event in Marquette or Buffalo or of an East Coast snowstorm they say how much fell. They don't say "but there's actually XX on the ground".

Here's my 6+ since our epic stretch ended after the winter of 14-15. 15-16: none (biggest 5.0) 16-17: 10.9" Dec 11/12 17-18: 6.5" Dec 13/14...9.3" Feb 9 18-19: 6.1" Jan 19 19-20: 8.5" Nov 11/12...7.0" Jan 20...6.0" Feb 25/26 20-21: 11.0" Feb 15/16

It's ridiculous. And Also a reminder. Regardless of how much ends up falling, this will be a long duration event. What that means is when you wake up Friday morning and the snow has ended, sticking a yard stick, measuring depth, and calling it total is underdone. Just like how lake effect snow and big East Coast storms always see the depth less than the total fall after 2 days, that's what we will see. You measure every 6 hours. Also have to take into account drifting as well as whatever old snow remains on the ground. Definitely have to be on your toes when measuring this one.

We've had multiple 8+ storms the last 6 years. However 6 years ago is when our epic stretch of winters gave way to more normal winters unfortunately.

That's insane

How bout the SE MI snow magnet

Are you flying home?

Jokes aside, the undeniable Northwest trend circa 2007-08 is long in the past. A good many storms do end up coming Northwest but it is far from the guarantee it was.

Computer models are definitely full of issues, but DTW is in as good a spot as you could hope for on model consensus. Basically square in the middle of the heavy band on the GFS and euro ensembles

It's the 84 hour nam too lol

I must echo it. If you have to go by the TV news absolutely Dave rexroth is the way to go

This storm is worthy of bringing the eta and ngm out of retirement

You have to throw in the 12z korean

I was just coming to say that. Several of the ensembles have a stripe of 3 feet plus at 10:1ratio.

I don't really pay close attention to the East Coast, but I don't even know if I can recall any storm period with an ensemble MEAN that beefed up several days out.

It's great to see so many old posters!

Yes

GEFS, GPS, EPS

I was just coming back to edit with the exact totals. Had to go back and check, and I did not realize that each storm technically started late in the day on January 31st at Chicago. GHDI: ORD: 21.2", DTW: 10.3" GHDII: ORD: 19.3", DTW: 16.7" GHDIII:?

Those were not just Chicago storms. They were subforum storms in the same general region, just Chicago did excellent in both. This would absolutely fit to have a moniker of GHDII. I believe Chicago got 20" in 1 and 18" into. Detroit got 10" in GHDI and almost 17" in GHDII. FEB 1/2, 2011 FEB 1/2, 2015 FEB 2/3, 2022

Just curious, with the overrunning portion portion and the main storm, will this all be considered one storm? Looks like near continuous precip.

You're welcome to post here!

Respectable snowstorms, of which there have been a few The last few years, have nothing to do with it. Grand Rapids basically ignores their county warning area outside of Grand Rapids North. They should just give Lansing and Jackson to DTX. I feel sorry for Jackson. If there is a chance of a stray lake effect snow shower drifting over their way, they get slapped with a Winter weather advisory. If they expect 6 to 10" of snow… they get slapped with a Winter weather advisory.

Actually we did have double digits, 11" at Detroit. I don't even recall what models were forecasting because that Winter was just one big weather orgasm of fun.