pasnownut

same here.. parachutes falling

Plow just came but and it’s hard to tell how much. Still snow and it’s already over preformed as what little I saw over the last couple days made it sound like I was getting nothing to very little here in the eastern LSV. taint will come. Don’t care. Just dense my pack up enough to make it hold till the next one. That’s my goal now.

Wasn’t surprised but was hoping for a closer game. Oh well. Maybe next year.

yeah we didnt waste a flake here............. Yet

Seems like that has a chance to verify...good luck.

Sure hope so. I dont even need big....just frequent bouts of white. I'm not picky. When we left the cabin this AM, it was -4. If they get what they are supposed to w/ any other events looming, it wont be going anywhere soon.

First flakes on Akron. Hope you all over preform…then dry slit roll cold and wraparound gets you. F this rain shit.

Can only hope. Been outta the loop for the weekend. Sounds like I didn’t miss much in model watching. At least more pops coming up.

Boy I hope that verifies for you. I’m just hoping to see some snow survive this convoluted mess of a storm.

Why we haven’t used Bustin Scott more baffles the mind. He’s been my fav for us for a couple years. oh and …still waiting….. looks like today’s win win has turned into a lose lose. oh well. Maybe next one for us LSVrs.

-6 for low at cabin. Hi of 9.

I'm not sure. Most models dont do a great job of showing snow vs sleet. Need to look at model soundings for better look at thermal profile to see how deep/shallow critical layers are.

uh oh....did Fla turn you into a warmie?? If so, Voyager welcomes you to his team Hope vaca was great bud.

In truth, the Euro is slowly ticking W with best accums, and based on current maps...it makes perfect sense. I'm just saying, that w/ 8 more model runs till go time...50-75 miles is really nothing in the scope of things...and that scope is right over many of our houses. I'm away for the weekend. Have fun tracking. See yall Sunday....and hopefully it'll be a fun day..

Mesos did not do well for us here in SE last event. Many were showing 4+ 6+ additional and peeps were posting them....we all saw it. We got maybe 1-2 add'l at best....and that was inside 6hrs, so yeah, Mesos are gonna need to do well with this one for me (or others) to put much stock in them.

I literally had to read it 2x....then check to see if my iced tea was spiked....

This is exactly why I've been posting the trend GIF's. A couple subtle moves will make a notable diff. for many in here and quite frankly, a 50-75 mile shift, would affect 75% of this forum. Its quite easy to see. IF we can smooth out the SLP placements a bit and have less jumping around, the models might present a better (or worse ) solution. All of us are still in the game, and any further SE ticks would erode the warm nose at lower levels. Further NW...we know the drill. Anything further SE in SLP placement at the minimum, would save many from Zr and keep sleet as likely flavor of taint. NAM's have us cooked, but CMC/ICON/GFS/EURO are not far away from being back to decent. At 48hrs away, anyone hangin there hat on anything right now is a bold move IMO. If they get it right....props to them. Just not ready to concede I guess.

FWIW, GFS is a little better(thermally speaking) as well as SLP placement being a tick further E, which is now our way to salvaging some winter weather.

IF NAM verifies, I'd not see but a flake to 1" before brief sleet and zr. Ouch.

Yeah, thats what the 80% part of my statement represents.

I wish I didnt agree, but yeah, when taint is mentioned, it usually overpreforms 80/20.

I'd sign for that as well. Not a far fetched solution either. Most guidance has us safely in 3-6" ish. Throw some sleet on (wishcasting again) and dryslot us w/ a little mood flakes on tail end. Then cold comes to make it look Burle N Ives for a few weeks.

Yeah I think you guys are a lock, no matter what whiggle n jiggle this storm does. Were I you....i sit back, crack a Hi Life, and just wait and enjoy.

thats funny. I typed N Korea and China, then deleted...

Based on SLP path, that seems a bit surprising based on where they are in relation to SLP. I'd think CAD and antecedent cold thermals would protect them from much taint. 700's are just fine up there and I'd think if 850's erode, it'd be very short in duration. Huh. This is the only bad panel that exists on GFS for their region. Blues a plenty before and right after.