pasnownut

@90 Euro is a bit better looking at 500's, with a little more neg tilt. Surface close to 6z

Good to see you out enjoying it....and not stuck looking at models.. Enjoy.

In looking a bit deeper, this is also a good sign. Quite a few tucked/inland. This give us a chance at further corrections West. Verbatim it is east of the op by a tad, so we'll take whatever good we can get.

If only life could be filled with happy endings............

CMC at 90-96 is slightly quicker and NNE w/ SLP. at 96 it now has qpf into Allentown and I'm likely smokin cirrus. It really bombs out and is east of GFS SLP. Its in line w/ other nooners, and if nothing helps, narrows goalposts a bit. Didnt hurt the trends of today.

Sorry to hear your are tied, up. We'll try to reel it in for ya. Not sure what you mean wrt coastal being east tho. Verbatim its still quite a fish storm at our latitude. We need it to tuck in a bit more which throws the wester QPF back to CTP and gives you and i the wiggle room I think you are talking bout.

Totally agree.

at 5 days out (yesterday), these kinds wobbles are normal. Unfortunately the wobbles havent gone our way this year..lol

Yeah I know they too are a bit starved. Good for them. Friends were sledding in NY 2 weekends ago and said it sucked. Really feel for those that rely on the snow biz.

100% agree. 2-4 IS a big win for many in LSV. I'll gladly take in hopes that the next one...or one after that...whatevs....gets me in the jackzone.

@96 and 102 it is about 100 miles W of 6z. Thats what we need to see. IF we get a couple more ticks W, its a nice event for many here. Not saying its happening, but its the trend we need. 500's look notably better (not there yet), but sharper/more neg tilt. I'll take this as a good step.

yep at 84 it is slightly west and 90 it carries that same theme. Precip panels responded well to interaction w/ arctic boundary. I think if one sets reasonable expectations, we might eek out our first legit WWA or low end (easters) Warning event if we can keep this tracking a bit further west. Any better interaction w/ arctic boundary likely gives mood snows for many here.

Icon trended better out to 90, but as coastal pops, its too late for this forum. Verbatim a little light snow and then we salute the eastern Jersey and NE folks for their win.

For those that still want to track.... RGEM and NAM dont look horrible for Friday. Were I to extrapolate, HH Friday night has it snowing for eastern 1/2 of state as arctic boundary approaches and looks to interact w/ coastal. Does coastal pop n save us...dunno, but like I said, its something.

Yesterday was well modeled for our area to be a zero sum flake total. Canderson saw like 20 and thats 20 more than he should have got. It's definitely been a challenging year, and we've sure have the fail part down pretty well...but like said so often, anyone that says fail, is right 70% of the time....without even looking at a map. And that takes no talent/skill whatsoever. This is a weather board, and the fun for some of us is to discuss (good and bad). This winter has been a great opportunity to learn (even if it's just another way to fail). Dont forget, we've also had years where "it wants to snow" in less than stellar patterns, and they've puzzled us in a good way. That's the fun of this. Here's to hoping for a good nooner set of runs, and if not...so be it.

Absolutely. No matter where this ends up...still plenty of time for this to move around a bit. One thing this event has is that it has trended back west in the last 2 days, and not OTS like the last few, so there is something different about this one. Does is stop today, or continue eeking towards us, we'll find out soon. IF that ULL dives in a tad sooner, it can make a notable difference in trajectory as it comes up at us.

technically its still a miss...but Euro definitely came west w/ SLP and precip shield now into eastern 1/3 of Pa. at 0z it was still into NJ. Summary of nooners, is that they all came around to the idea of a storm. While some of us are a bit more snakebit than others, consensus cannot be denied....just debated. If one follows the theme of the season...yes, Trainer is on point to be worried (and I worry right w/ him), but there is something to watch for sure.

GFS and GEFS in close agreement for this weekend....

at 120 its about 100 miles NNW of 6z. Eastern Pa hit verbatim. As depicted, its not gonna be big for us but it sure is something much of NE will gladly sign for.

and fwiw, tellies still looking alright as we head into FEB. AO starting to look more - and that has shown enough promise to get it done around here. NAO neut and PNA -. Sounds like zonal look IMO but w/ AO leaning - we could be on the right side of the boundary. MJO still stuck in 7. Verbatim not likely a big storm pattern but not a shutout either.

ICON started nooners off w/ a nice tug west.

congrats and hope your alright.

1/2” here. Like I said better than WWA non event from earlier this week. Road and everything coated

Steady light snow for last 1/2 hour. Already better coverage then WWA we had earlier this week. Son and I cut 3 or 4 qds of wood today, turkey in smoker and footballs on. Life is good. Enjoy the mood flakes gang.

yeah things really "went south"...lol....for my Tuesday gig. NS got a bit out ahead and instead of working with the SS vort....it screwed things up. Just get my ground white and I'll be fine.