pasnownut

Pingers in etown..... and maybe one flake mixed in..... and that is a bonus for me, as I didnt think lower levels would support it, so a win for the column cooler argument.

so by stuff.... do you mean white stuff... or wet stuff..... Inquiring minds wanna know.

yeah thats why i deemed it post worthy. Not too often we see lows that low in early Dec. Like I said, more just for entertainment purposes while folks wait for first flakes.

and if thats not cold enough....this one is just posted purely for entertainment purposes (or for firewood gathering if it holds any merit for you). Looking over last few runs beyond 240 has been nothing short of dizzying...so just keep that in mind.....but wowzers. Early start to ice skating.

Not that many are already looking beyond todays first potential snow for many, but the GFS seems to be holding the upcoming weekends cold look. Lake effect looks likely for Atomix and the normal norther/westers towards the end of the weekend as NW wind cranks w/ another shot of cold coming in. But for the rest of us........BBrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. .

off hour....we toss

Yep it has, but as a short term model, it has to have some weight, and as the GFS known cool bias, if one blends the 2, IMO its a reasonable solution...even if not the solution many want. Flag hoisted though as it is an outlier, so you may be right. As we've never been in the game for this one, I'm just discussing weather on a weatherboard and while I want it to be wrong...as we are getting into the snow season, I (like others) like the NAM and am hoping we can trust it when the show really starts....if ya know what I mean.

850's are marginal w/ that wind direction IMO and will really need dynamic cooling to get it done...me thinks. Mind you the NAM has been warm for this one, so if temp profiles are off a bit, that can make a notable difference in ones backyard and wet vs white.

Somethin to chew on while we wait for game time. Nooner NAM back to lookin a bit more like I thought it would (from yesterday) and says I 80 southers (save laurels/elevation SC/SW) may have issues. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Jon, I expect beer in snow pics from you. Just no naked snow angels........K

27 in Akron. Looks like overnights ticked colder....and thats a pleasant surprise (to me). Congrats to many now in the game. Still worried about the SSW wind doing a quick scouring of our precious cold, but if we get the rates...it may offset that even down here (for a while anyway). NWS has r/s mix for me this afternoon and early evening. If we see a little white rain....it's a win for me. For you norther/westers, enjoy and share some pics.

Looking at overnighters seems like a tick south w/ 850's and has you guys looking good. Based on winds, it looks like a changeover is likely for many but not after a nice kickoff to snow season. Nice trend. Enjoy.

looked more like 12z GFS regarding SLP. That helped thermal boundary with a tad less warm air intrusion for lower part of state NW looks good. still stickin w/ my gut for 80 southers having trouble for much in the way of accums.

throwing my congrats out in advance. Enjoy and send pics.

One potential bust is that nooners at 36 hrs...GFS and NAM are 4mb off and 100 miles w/ SLP placement and 700 wind fields and thermal are notably different. NAM is warmer of the 2 (hoists flag). I think one of them is gettin first taste of crow if they dont come to a consensus quickly

Thermals a tad better for some and a tad worse for others. Probably noise, but a slightly weaker SLP w/ less precip (a la 12z) will not help turn wet to white for some.

Seeing that map and knowing philly doubled KLNS makes me cringe. Hoping this year isnt as horrid round our area....but we'll see. Not looking like a big winter but anything close to normal is a win IMO.

Last point I'm trying to make for us 80 southers, is that based on wind direction, we've got mid 30's right on M/D line, and IF this happens, its dynamic cooling is the only way to get some to the promise land...so hope for heavy precip and roll em....verbatim laurels should be fine.

agreed. I'm just trying to temper expectations on this early opportunity. NAM can be a bit overdone and while i want it as much as the next guy, like you, I think the + takeaway is that opps are starting to show and an earlyish start may be evolving. Heres the 700's that dont help the column for us 80 southers (if one looks at wind direction). If it mixes down an dynamic cooling occurs, then maybeso. Lets hope for last minute changes, as it wont take much to see CTP's map have alot more merit than my take.

Here's your "money" panel.....spend it wisely. 700/850"s for same timestamp. SSW winds at surface heres 850's w/ 700's showin same wind. Not gonna do it for I80 southers. (again, except laurels/elevation lucky ones). Hope I'm wrong.

30"...no thanks. Drop the 0 and were happy thank you. we got 8" 2 a couple years back, heavy wet, and my gosh it was so so tiring to get around. Many moons ago we tried to get around in 24" in Tioga, and it was impossible and NOONE was out. Plus we need deer to putting lbs on for overwinter health, and an early start like that post mating season, is really really hard on them. Dont want that.

I hope it works out, but looking at thermals on GFS....marginal 850's in southern 1/2 of state w/ SSW winds makes me a bit nervous for many south of 80 (save Laurels). Hey, its great to see no matter. Getting closer for sure. BTW, dont look at the 6z for post turk day....hint....hope you have boat , but that's post 240 so I wouldnt lose much sleep. Your 30" may be back at noon

its steady to pouring here in Akron/Ephrata. No hint of sun in this neck of the farm fields. and yes.....rather warm

Yep. Upper levels while close, are just too far west. SLP moving about 300-400 miles NW in 6hrs might be a teenie weenie red flag too. Not been a big fan of the look, but beyond that we get the 500's in much better position for LF/ upslope areas to have a little pre holiday mood adjuster.

As PA and Blizz have already suggested, next week is starting to look a bit wintery for some in the region with a couple shots of love from above. Following tomorrow nights potential elevation frostings, the Tues/Wed looks decent for more flakes in same areas and possibly Poc area. Beyond that NW flow likely keeps flakes flying in flurry and snow showers for upslope crew for Thurs/Friday. Still plenty of time to change, but first stand of winter appears to be showing up. 540 oscillates below and through the region much of the week. Not a great look but a nice change IMO.