pasnownut

and after the 12z NAM thermal profile review...a nice tick colder. IMO coastal is helping a bit. If you look at 700mb panels you can see it. 850's also a tad better. I'll take it as a good start for the day. edit: and after reviewing comments above, looks like I'm late to the dance....

and after looking at the 6z NAM thermals, the 700's where a tad warmer for SE Pa, still a good bit of work for us down here, but soon enough, these subtle shifts will become noise, as the goalposts will stop narrowing and I'll likely be outside of them. For those inside...enjoy.

Yeah its a nail biter for us, but often is in situ's like this. You and I will be living vicariously through our central/northern crew, but like you suggested, if we can eek out even 1-3 slop kinda deal, I'm good w/ that.

didnt look too deep but at a quick glance, I'd say ever so slightly cooler. You look to be in for a decent event, I need every little skinch of "cooler" that I can get down here. Reading Afd above give me hope they the quicker transfer to the coastal may save the day for the eastern folks, and while the coastal transfer is a little too far N for me to get real excited down here, I'll take my normal dryslot and hope for the quicker transfer and cross my fingers for some action from part 2.

I had a little time to play on pivotal and the Ukie actually improved at 12 and isnt too far from decent for us LSV'rs, Just trying to get a feel for what the current model "spray" is...and I'd say the goalposts are not too wide for this lead time.

Yeah, it looks like fun times for us sno trackin weenies

Dont look at the 18z GFS pal (says jokingly as its JUST ONE RUN!!)

Yeah has some of us in the game as well. Hope so cause IF the 18z was correct, we then head from riding the line to suppression depression as a parade of storms head for da fishys off the SE coast and we go cold n dry.

think of the neg NAO as a cold dome. That dome is prevalent here in the east, but storms can go "around" that dome. The primary is trying to cut to the left side of said dome, and the secondary is a result of the dome shredding the primary apart, and that energy needs to find some other source to keep it going...thats the eastern coastal waters. The cold forces that energy to "transfer" south of the dome and typically close to the eastern seaboard. The primary screws up the thermals for us by enhancing SW flow and gets our mid/lower levels above freezing. We then wait for the coastal to "pop" off the coast, and with the counter clockwise circulation, we get wind flow backing from the N/NW/W which taps into the colder side of the storm, and warm mid/lower levels (aka column) cools sufficiently to transition wet back to white. When we say there are many ways to fail...2 pronged systems like this just up the odds of missing out on pure clean white gold from a Miller A (one LP coming out of the south) and not a Miller B (one primary system hands off to a secondary system - which is sorta what weve got in front of us. Hopefully this helps to understand the current situation evolving.

i did not look at the snow maps...just surface, but upon doing so....should restate SE 1/4 of pa does not approve. all you in betweeners....sorry for misleading. Isnt that called "taint"

Euro ticked N w/ coastal...so did precious thermals here in LSV. While I'm pooh poohing the outcome, it is a believable one for the SE third of PA.

Signals are all we can look for beyond 7 days....and the signals are for lots of tracking coming up for many. "Verbatim" analysis post 240 should ALWAYS be taken w/ this. BTW, go to 500 maps and look at Op vs ENS for said timestamp....you'll like the ENS much more. Now mind you w/ Op being notably "off" vs Ens, that adds even more salt to the convo, as the Op may not be reflective of upper air pattern, and hence why what it is showing for said timestamp may likely be bunk. Or the Op is correct and we get rain down here again. Gut says no, but that could be the sub I just ate.

verbatim, follow up wave saves the day and many get snow, but yeah IF GFS evolution was legit (and 500's are notably different w/ Op less blocky, and ensembles showin blocking still nicely anchored to our N. That said, I'd just want that storm to show up and would think it a crowd pleaser for many stocking would be filled w/ snow (from shoveling of course) - not the ones on the mantle.

If only it could come true. Wow

CMC and Icon had some good and bad to them, but I'd say they both pop the secondary in a tad better position for coastal fun, and thermals also were a tad better. Not great, but better, and better is better than bad....

Seeing post above about long duration event and timing of it....no matter what falls IMBY, its a perfect time for it to happen, and will make it feel rather festive for many here. Great stuff.

Well said....well said.

after taking a peek, yeah it looks like GFS ticked a tad better for LSV'rs (as already suggested). Secondary a tad further E helped a bit as well. Good to see. Thermals responded and 540 came SE a tad. Good step.

and just looping over GFS, same trend noted as well (regarding primary coming further SE). We dont want that. If that continues, its trouble for us IMO

looping back over CMC, 0z had primary notably se, and that is a red flag IMO. We need primary to stay farther westl, and die a faster death, and IF it holds on longer, it screws up our once again precious thermals down this way. Also want to watch secondary and how quickly it pops off coast. The sooner the better.

To add to his post, I'd think that suggests more ZR than IP, as the 925 to surface is below freezing, but there is a pretty stout layer 925 up to 500 is above, so thats a large wedge to melt flakage, and a small wedge of frozen to refreeze IMO.

I'd think it fair to say that goalposts are narrowing this far out, but as we all know. Even 50 miles either way on the Susky snow fence, makes a big diff in this subforum, and were not that close yet, so caution warranted. I'm just gonna enjoy the ride no matter how the chips fall for me. I love the thrill of the chase in finding storm patterns, and saw this potential evolution from last week (doubters can go back and find the exchange I had w/ Mag). It fits the pattern, so why not? Enjoy the ride. You could be in for a nice start to winter.

Bingo. All they can do is discuss potential to raise awareness. Smart. As stated many times, downplaying or hedging to the warm side is more often right than wrong, but we all know Susqu valley usually sits on both sides of the snow fence....

yeah I saw the worried ones suggesting that everyone was buyin in to one big run. I was sitting in a tree stand when I saw it and was glad I was harnessed i when I did While everyone here likes to post fun maps....EVERYONE here knows that one good run does not a storm make. Its great to see potential lining up, and all a big run does is show exactly that....potential for fun - especially when the pattern supports the models. Lets have some fun, and even if I end up jipped (as i typically expect w/ events like these), It's all good.

Well it looks like I came back to some fun trackin times ahead. Overnighters looking decent for many in true central and has that I81 special look to it. Nice to see chances lining up in the mid/extended as well. I've got some catchin up to do, but looking forward to seeing how all of this plays out. 18z last evening sure was a run that we havent seen in a while...even if only digtal snow, it was nice. 0z looked to hold serve and 6z was a tick SE. Just need thermals to be a tad better for us SE'rs to get a little as well. 6z helped in that regard, but thats alot of details to sort at 96 hrs out. Not sure if we can pull it off down here, but for the good ones, us LSV'rs know we must smell the rain for you norther/westers to cash in. Just nice to see that pattern taking shape.