pasnownut

NAM extrapolated would be used 2x...both by me. Not dozens. Let him search. We know its a joke, but he thinks its actually us trying to "forecast"....LMAO

You can add the CMC to that camp as well. Notable shift away from severe cutter and now into Ohio Valley and transfers further east. Still not a good setup verbatim, but its not quite as ugly as there is some front and back end loving.

there is still enough variance showing in run to run differences, to not write off some white. Heck, HH GFS is a couple moves away from trying give us backend lovin. Would be great to see the gulf low deal start to show on a couple models as so much energy is involved, its not outside the rhealm of possibilities. Or it starts to cut further west like what we just went through.

dont see that on any maps that I'm looking at. Solid week of cold to follow next weeks grinch stole our white christmas storm

gfs at 144 takes SLP to Buffalo, then pops a secondary off Chessy bay at 150 and saves us all w/ a turnover to give a white christmas to most of the state. huhhh

thanks for the thoughts Mag. I think what "got" some of us was 500's looking good regarding ridge/trough axis on some ens guidance, and the hope was (for me anyway) was for a correction towards them. I'm gonna eat a little crow and say that the GFS ens guidance has trended away for coastal solutions and have gone towards the cmc/euro cutter looks. Not sure where we need to look to find signals right now tbh. Yes, I'm gonna get bashed, but the tellies IMO argued for a better solution (although most recent runs show AO/NAO headed twds neutral, so maybe that it s the catalyst for increased ridging now showing on most guidance? If you've got anything to add/share regarding this mess...I'm all ears.

This is a great point. Many moving parts to dissect with this setup. 18z at 120 shows SLP forming in Gulf. Wasnt there prior. I suggested earlier that it didnt make sense to see the heartland cutter (in my mind). I like that and think it may be a way to salvage this deal. Guess we'll find out how it plays out in a little bit

and as i look at nooner CMC out to 120 it has a much flatter look and lost the bigtime cutter look....so far. Likely still cuts but maybe a slight step in a better direction. Just a couple model runs, but rather dizzying IMO

Huge changes twds the Euro/CMC look Someone got a fork? We may need one soon. Not saying it can come back but model consensus has been trending the wrong way. Only possible savior could be where the models are forcing the SLP to pop back in Tennessee, and with all of that energy hitting the coast, you'd think the coastal pop would be more likely, but thats all i got for ya. Scratches head and goes back to chores.

Yeah, several models show quite the fropa.... yuk

I hope it doesnt follow the Icon, cause the Icon just went the wrong way.

Looking over the overnighter, CMC and Euro still hangin tough on their continuance to cutville. Keep that in mind as we set the table for another day of tracking. 2 distinct camps and one will likely fold like a cheap tent in the near future. Of course we all hope the home team models have a clue, but keep the emotions in check till the Euro or CMC caves....

I live in that strip. My bud about 5 miles to my east had about "a healthy dusting" and I was snowmobiling that evening. Felt like Tug Hill amish style

that was enough for me to sleep better. Hoping the ensembles support the Op. regardless...i'm out gnight gang.

answer is yes.... not likely how this would evolve, but we'll take the track for sure and sort out details later.

pops a second low off SC coast at 156. Hmm more to follow?

150 off chessy bay. Im tainting, but we do that in the big ones

slp in much better position off NC coast. Its drinking the good sauce now.

sweet jesus

Yeah....this may be a good lookin run

at 138 really liking the trough axix. much more 12z esqe

same deal at 126. Less ridging so it may lead to less cutting further east. Next 2 frames will likely tell the tale IMo

120 looks a bit better in midwest w/ slightly less ridging. Not sure the downstream implications tho

I just snuck into the MA forum and their chatter agrees....so you can believe it to be true. Been a while, still alot of same posters it seems. Lets hope GFS comes back around.

fwiw, ICON just made a huge jump towards the nooner GFS. BIG diff. Not a total win (nor should it be expected at this juncture, but a nice start for the overnighters