pasnownut

yeah, I'm happy to see the ground white and pics from the "haves", but am weary that afternoon/evening will knock the stuffing right outta the "snowpack" Sure hope some can hold on, but its gonna be tough for most. Below is time when best pricip hits tonight.

Agree. This one (like many do) split our region into the haves/have nots. While I often wonder about what they issue, it goes to show that even the most seasoned mets that fully know and understand local climo..... still miss the mark. Let that sink in EVERYONE!!. We live in a really challenging spot for winter forecasters. While I'm often pissed at what I read (or dont) from NWS, its a tough job and I'd NEVER want to do it.

Gonna say 1-1,25" prior to flip here at office. Drizzle now. Nice job with several of the mesos showing sharp cutoff in W Lanco vs E. Wife said not much of anything in New Holland.

While not for us....look at Tugs WSW duration in DAYS.... URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Buffalo NY 354 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 NYZ007-008-221700- /O.UPG.KBUF.WS.A.0016.221223T1800Z-221227T0000Z/ /O.NEW.KBUF.WS.W.0009.221223T1800Z-221226T1200Z/ Jefferson-Lewis- Including the cities of Watertown and Lowville 354 AM EST Thu Dec 22 2022 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM FRIDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow and strong winds expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 3 feet. Winds gusting as high as 60 mph Friday night. A rapid switch from rain to snow with sharply falling temperatures into the teens and single digits will result in a flash freeze on Friday afternoon. From Friday evening through most of the weekend, very strong winds, heavy lake effect snow and significant blowing and drifting snow will be possible. Localized blizzard conditions are possible.

Started snowin in Manheim and instant road cavage here in ETown. Buddy called me from Ephrata as as well snow/sleet there but was just starting at 7:40 I'm still not expecting much till changeover, but this was nice while it lasts.

Good luck w/ the front end boys n girls. Hope you get enough to not have it washed away tonight, cause hopefully it'll be blown east to my house tomorrow. I dont want Candersons shingles though. My new tin roof comes in 2 weeks.

Steelers were my first favorite team, thanks to Franco, Swann, Bradshaw, Stallworth and Mean Joe. Had their poster on my bedroom wall. RIP Franco.

Latest, but not greatest "money" panel for LSV backdoor lovin does the word "dry" imply where this is goin.....? Was really hoping for more than a glorified fropa w/ 10 min snowburst, but maybe thats just how were gonna roll here. Hoping we juice back up manana.

No denying bud. Just stating that there is no big signal for anomalous warmth. Obviously we are anxious for the goods to come, but its not a close the blinds for 3 week kind deal. Thats all.

Totally agree. No incoming TORCH is being advertised. Relaxation sure, but wonky things can happen in what lies ahead.

Its pretty cool to see this still holding as we've basically been seeing this for the last 5ish days on most guidance (as well as the locked in cutter look). Although not what we want, it should give faith in the models having a clue once in a while

Ens guidance as I suggested a bit ago flip flops the blues n reds, but its a broad trough that both the EPS and GEPS at 10 days is centered in the central basin, so while not great...not horrid either IMO. Gotta hope prime climo can help in surprising us tho

Here is the money panel from the 6z GFS. It's the time of year that we wanna believe, so here you go....believe away (especially us in the LSV. This is your path to a white christmas, and IF it verifies will really impress me

I'm also going to add that while there is no good looking snow threats other than our analfrontal event (that was funny), it really isnt a dumpster fire look either as we move beyond Christmas. PNA headed positive should help with keeping ridging out west NAO still negative AO still negative - both of these keep the cold close here in the east MJO low amp thru 5/6 (low amp is not an overwhelming signal, but after the novel I wrote yesterday-gonna keep an eye on it as that may be enough to continue to screw things up for us) Boiled down, its no blockbuster drool worthy pattern, but not necessarily a shutout deal either. Going to keep a casual eye on things and hope something pops up. As we are entering peak climo for snow/stickage, something is still possible.

Was thinking that very thing the last couple days. Despite the no snow part, it really has been a rather normal winter with enough cold around. Like you said, we just have some of the other right parts in the wrong places.

well played. We are all suckers for model runs.

Yeah I understand how they work, but as others have stated, while they CAN work, many times we get a brief burst (to whiten ground) and many times can see the clearing already coming off to out west. Trust me when I say I'm pulling for it to happen for all of us, but anafrontal snows are really tough SE of the blue mtn. History supports that despite what the models show. Whitening of the ground is a reasonable guess, but it has far more bust potential IMO.

eastern 1/2 of state would be dusting to 1 or 2" (except normal elevation winners.) Im putting a sugar plum fairy frosting of snow as my win bar.

Here is a snapshot of my worry blizz. Prior panel shows transition time, and this is our anafrontal "window" of snow.

With all due respect, I'm not sure he ever got started.... This is a tough sport. No denying that.

yeah there's definitely a decent shot at white christmas for some/many. Prob down here is that we will be warmed up at the surface and timing of best anafrontal snows will likely be during the fropa and we may lose precious stickage. Point im getting at is that for us SE'rs the window is rather small for it to work. It sure can, but I'm keeping expectations in check and hoping for the festivus miracle from Mo Nature. At the minimum, most if not all of us should see flakes flyin at the right time of year. Just not sure that it add's up to more than a dusting.

I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well.

Who are you kidding? We’ll take our 4-6” and just like our wives do….like it.

Agreed on a lot of what you stated. Yeah one of the old rules was to watch where a storm hits the Pac, as that would often be a precursor to where it exits the east coast. In this case that's not really applicable though. As I'm reflecting regarding the MJO, the only thing sticks in my crawl is that while it that while we are in low amplitude P2 right now, if one couples that with the other indicies, easy conversation would have argued for a better result that we are currently starting at. Obviously this aint easy. When I made my prognostication a while back regarding the potentially better times, I most definitely considered the low amp 8/1/2 and thought that when factored into AO NAO and rising PNA, it argued for a ridge west trough east deal. Late last week some were sharing "ridge too far W" and that was going to muck up our pattern here in the east w/ trough into central basin and not further east. Unless I missed it (dont think I did though), I saw little on Ens guidance suggesting this scenario as toughing was shown further east. I guess someone has some tool that I dont know about (or as you state, better pattern recognition skills) than most of us that were thinking better times ahead. Maybe a higher amp 8/1/2 is now needed as we enter this new regime. That in my mind makes some sense and I'll stowe that away next time things look more favorable.

I'll take an optimist over a pessimist any and every day.... Even if reality is often skewed to the neg. Yours truely, Realist