pasnownut

While 3 favors cold, +AO and +NAO do not. IMO if we can get a zonal look with that base state that would be reasonable. No doubt we'd be riding the line though.

something to ponder as we move forward. Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for. Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events. One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun. I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me. MJO going into 3 NAO headed + AO headed + PNA neut a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east. Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

I think it fair to see that most of the SE 1/3 of pa never really had enough going for it to be in the game, no matter what model may have shown it. Cold just isnt deep enough here....even if the SLP track is one that historically would make us moderately giddy in "prime" climo. Best case for us is that tomorrow we get some backdoor loving, and then midweek we get some frontdoor action.

That backdoor action has been popping up for the last few model runs (I think bubbler saw it the other day), and hoping it gains momentum as thats the only real chance for us LSV'rs.

it makes sense as we have a cold press working to fight of SER, so somewhere in between becomes the battlezone. I'm more fearful of the persistent WAR that has been a thorn in our winter side, but hoping things are a little better aligned for us to have some cold close enough for fun in the coming weeks.

x2 Not any easy spot to be in especially w/ the 2 most important women in your life. I'm not offering advice, as I dont know the whole story, but I'm sure you know whats best Steve. I'd just say....go w/ your gut, cause it's usually right more often than not.

Thats the key to the toychest for this event. Every hour it holds, it keeps blues from turning green (not really for us as we are once again toast here in LSV) but central and northers need to watch that like a hawk if they wanna have a shot at keeping their precious snowpack (says loosely)

Euro did come a little SE w/ 540's compared to 0z which should help true central tainters

Nah....it can just stay right there for the next 300 hrs, then it can lift a tic. thats about where it seemingly needs to be for us to be "safe" anymore.

whats the saying....delayed but not denied? Lets hope so.

Dont look, but beyond mid next week..... the pattern looks decent. I know...doesnt it always? Gut says this SHOULD be legit period of fun. Happy almost weekend to all.

But at a little deeper look, it did trend notably better on front end. Not there yet (and not saying it will get there), but 540's came notably south at 120hr. Front end fun for northern 1/2.

Im northcentral Lanco, and you can add me to the zippo pile

Thanks man. I'm glad someone appreciates my input. I peeked mid week, and put a snippet out about concerns that we are looking at a window of opp and maybe not a prolonged period of favorable, but one thing w/ the tellies is that they too change weekly, and while this weeks concern for a closing window as we turn the calendar may look a bit better/worse next week. Hoping that as the window opens and cold gets a bit better established, that we can hold it here in the east for a spell. For now, i'm going to enjoy what is coming for the next week and hope that you/others get some love from above while things look more favorable for our region. Like I also stated earlier...even if we still lose, we'll be doing it a little different way (Pac reshuffle to more pronounce ridging).

and my distaste for the weekend is still LSV centric....not for the true central/northers. I really came into this weekend deal a bit skeptical and thinking its a bit early for us down here. Looks like that concern may verify. Yall enjoy every friggin flake. With some luck you get snow on snow in the next couple weeks.

yeah....I smell rats.....lots and lots of rats. Still time for a second half comeback, but man Mo nature needs on hell uv a pep talk.

thanks for confirming..... we were wondering where you stood

someone get me a fork for this weekend though....

losing 850's for SE 1/3 of Pa, yet all snow....whats not to believe?

I'd like Gervais to do the 0z analysis. oh wait....thats Golden Globes....the other one that i also dont watch

0z NAM going for peoples choice award. Keeps LSV all snow and hope alive for another 6 hrs....or till the ICON crushes hopes and dreams of naked snow angels in the streets

Great call.......

your snow dome has been replaced with a magnet

affecting us..... dude.....you flat out stole it from us.

Despite the good looks of late regarding Sunday, this weekend really is the first event that is happening during the new regime change that is only getting underway. A lag time till things get better aligned in the east should be expected. I suggested that several days ago, and truth told, the good looks for this weekend sorta took me by surprise as in my mind they were a bit premature (based on what we've been dealing w/ regarding the constant cutter look being flushed out so quickly, but hey we'll take em....if they happen.