pasnownut

this looks closer to reality IMO

NAM looks to have pooped the preverbal bed early on IMO. Heres 8am map depiction, and as per what I/you just shared...its already happenin in many places that the NAM said it wouldnt be yet.

cams showing snow fallin in somerset/clearfield/Potter/Tioga/NEPA. show should start soon. Good luck and enjoy every friggin flake. Take pics...we dont see this often

some also need reminded that WAA often comes in earlier than modeled, even if its getting eaten up by dry dp's.

looks like a pecker ready to drip right into my cheerios

absolutely hysterical....and rather fitting

Thats about as good as we can get w/ this setup. Nice to hear they are "on board" with us weenies....

Oof. Add the Euro to the jog north with thermals camp. Did NOT expect that......but the term atmospheric memory comes to mind right now. I may need to go get a jockstrap and cup....this may hurt a little.

Yeah, thats a great reminder for folks to remember. This SHOULD be one of those situ's. Guessing that's what CTP is thinking as well.

Just took a peek and yep...ur right. Ticked N. Hoist flag.....once again. arghhh

I think your expectation is reasonable, and hopefully one that we can overachieve with. IF this new look is legit, we should see these looks hold, or get a tad better as we approach go time.

Yeah I guess its just a little weeble wobbling of the R/S line for the westers that came north. CAD still doin its thingy round here. As we all know, that is often an inevitable trend that seems easy to pick out cause were so used to seeing it. 6z nooner

I will add that I'm liking where the Op runs are headed into the weekend though. Looks like the cold press is legit and still a steady stream of chances incoming.

GFS didnt trend any better, and thermals retreated a skosh. Still not horrible, but was hoping to see that trend continue. Just an observation of 1 run tho. Other nooners still look ok on the front end.

and my last snipper WRT NAM, we hold thermals through 57hrs on NAM, and most precip has fallen by that time, so while we might taint, verbatim were in the frozen category, and not just wet. Beyond that there is a short period of rain, but temps at 33 -36 may be cold enough to hang onto whatever falls. Sometimes life about celebrating the small victories and not the BIG Win (like the Eagles had yesterday...

to add to the mid week convo and what Bubbler was just pointing out above CAD feature really showing up nicely on nooner NAM

its been tough sledding for us and very understandable for the glum feelings. I at least got to see snow on my drive in this am, and some white ground north of Manheim. As we've been chatting about for a little now, we look to be heading into a period where enough is aligned in our favor to maybe eek out a couple events before EOM. After that....we'll lets just enjoy the next 2 weeks and see where things go. chin up

As some of us have suggested over the last few days, that HP holds the key to the winter toy chest for the mid week event. Every little bit further south (or holding and not retreating) is gonna be extra time frozen for the central mtns/easter folks. CAD for the win (well maybe just a small victory).

as the HRRR pic above suggests, the thermal profiles seem to be slightly improving as we get onto the mid week mauler. While it still going to taint/transition for many/most, we've had these situ's where we get the front end snow, then fizzle out to snizzle/drizzle and avoid a washout. While I'm not suggesting this is en route, it too is something to watch for as we get closer. Just not sure how much one can trust the HRRR well beyond range, but there are enough models eeking towards slightly colder onset, so I'd suggest keeping an eye on that trend as we hone in.

Yeah, like you I was pleasantly surprised on way into work. Litiz/manheim areas were caving as I came in. Just nice to see white landscape for a change. As you've been stating for some time now, hoping the midweek event front end continues to trend a tad colder. That HP isnt stout, but hoping its enough that we can get enough OTG and hold it after we flip from white to wet.

-EPO has been our ticket to ride the snow train before, so lets hope its our ace in the hole.

While 3 favors cold, +AO and +NAO do not. IMO if we can get a zonal look with that base state that would be reasonable. No doubt we'd be riding the line though.

something to ponder as we move forward. Even if the cold isnt deep here....it's going to be "closer to us", so that may help front/back action that we all look for. Whether it antecedent or post storm, the boundary likely sags a bit south from what weve seen, and the models are showing that as green is being replaced by blues for upcoming events. One other caveat, is that as I suggested a few days ago, and after a quick look at tellies suggest to me that its more of a "window of opportunity" and not a sustained period of fun. I wish (and hope) that I'm dead nuts wrong on that....trust me. MJO going into 3 NAO headed + AO headed + PNA neut a snapshot from above indies in my mind suggests a flat/zonal west to WAR once again winning in the east. Back to cutters as we turn the calendar.

I think it fair to see that most of the SE 1/3 of pa never really had enough going for it to be in the game, no matter what model may have shown it. Cold just isnt deep enough here....even if the SLP track is one that historically would make us moderately giddy in "prime" climo. Best case for us is that tomorrow we get some backdoor loving, and then midweek we get some frontdoor action.

That backdoor action has been popping up for the last few model runs (I think bubbler saw it the other day), and hoping it gains momentum as thats the only real chance for us LSV'rs.