pasnownut

I'm just not feeling this one. I was hoping for more spacing between the 2 systems which would give the coastal/Thurs event a better chance for front end loving, but the cutter is close enough to screw it up and put a wreckin ball to any chance of that happening IMO. I'm pullin for the snow maps shared to have some merit, would be great, but count me out for part 1. Part 2 has been rather consistently modeled for some time now, and the anafrontal snow/snow shower deal looks legit for many. Beyond that and parsing over the ensembles was a real debby, and it may take a while for the "reload" to happen. Oh well.

Who are you kidding? We’ll take our 4-6” and just like our wives do….like it.

Agreed on a lot of what you stated. Yeah one of the old rules was to watch where a storm hits the Pac, as that would often be a precursor to where it exits the east coast. In this case that's not really applicable though. As I'm reflecting regarding the MJO, the only thing sticks in my crawl is that while it that while we are in low amplitude P2 right now, if one couples that with the other indicies, easy conversation would have argued for a better result that we are currently starting at. Obviously this aint easy. When I made my prognostication a while back regarding the potentially better times, I most definitely considered the low amp 8/1/2 and thought that when factored into AO NAO and rising PNA, it argued for a ridge west trough east deal. Late last week some were sharing "ridge too far W" and that was going to muck up our pattern here in the east w/ trough into central basin and not further east. Unless I missed it (dont think I did though), I saw little on Ens guidance suggesting this scenario as toughing was shown further east. I guess someone has some tool that I dont know about (or as you state, better pattern recognition skills) than most of us that were thinking better times ahead. Maybe a higher amp 8/1/2 is now needed as we enter this new regime. That in my mind makes some sense and I'll stowe that away next time things look more favorable.

I'll take an optimist over a pessimist any and every day.... Even if reality is often skewed to the neg. Yours truely, Realist

saw that and only thing I'll add at this juncture, is that as the trough is starting to lift out at that timeframe, that a more norther correction isnt off the table IMO. We cant continue this run of cutter/suppression/cutter/suppression. At some point something has to hit us. and while this post has some potential truth to it........... ground truth is I'm wishcasting hard.....troll away.

If the GFS has a clue and stays on que....Friday morning rush looks to be slowed a wee bit. Hoping many are already off and will be sipping coffee w/ Irish Liquor in it like I might be. Anafrontal snows look to be holding steady. As already suggested, downslopping likely takes some "fun" out of it down here in the piedmont, but we've seen fropas make it down here plenty enough to not discount what is being currently depicted. Only caveat is that if the gfs bias of being a tad cold is in play, this map could look notably different here in the SE regions

I wanted to respond to this yesterday but was on road, and my thumbs dont do well w/ tiny phone "keyboard." Yes, we've been in a frustrating base state over the last couple of years w/ a default of storms heading for the midwest and not under and up the east coast. Like a couple here, my fun or "specialty" (and I use that jokingly and for fun), has been sniffing out patterns and times when things MAY work out for our region. As you may have seen, there's been some "heat" thrown in/at me...especially when things haven't panned out as they COULD have. One of the things I was keying on was the Enso/current NINA aoa 1.0ish and close to peak. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.pdf While I'm no met, I've been at this hobby long enough to be able to read through this and have a baseline understanding of the implications thereof. Yes some of it is still slightly above my pay grade , but I can parse through and get a feel for the implications thereof-knowing that as other factors (teleconnections) play in, no 2 pictures are alike as those influences fluctuate. Furthermore many post in the ENSO thread and I peruse regularly as we approach winter, as I want to get a "feel" for where things are heading. While the general consensus wasn't sure that this peak aoa 1.0 ish signal wasnt a great one, it also didn't necessarily mean that it was a kiss of death for us in the east. As some have seen, there is much data to review and maps avail for folks to get an understanding how things flow during these times. This is one example of disco and maps suggesting what the base state may look like when factoring other drivers like PNA/AO/NAO. https://www.weather.gov/iwx/la_nina. With all that in mind, one needs to do a blend of all signals...especially when no one indicator was seeming to take the wheel and drive the snow train. We currently are in a negative phase of BOTH AO and NAO, and with the ENSO on high end low/low end mod, there (in my mind) was no reason to write off the tellies at -2-3.0 states as they can sometimes be stout enough to POTENTIALLY offset/mute other factors. I refer all to the hyperlinks above to review what said base state SHOULD look like when the indicies line up as they are. Last thing to factor in was the MJO https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml I'm a big fan of using tellies as benchmarks for where things may be headed (knowing that some lead times ie. NAO often have short ones and others are more stable/predictable. MJO is currently coming out of 2 and was briefly low amplitude 8/1/2 (which typically is the money panels for the east/snow lovers). As we are now looking to head to less favorable phases of 4/5/6, that normally suggest that more maritime influence will warm us here in the east. Taking all of the above as a snapshot, this is why some of us went into this current period with a little more optimism than normal. It had little to do w/ the horrid winter we had down here last year or wishcasting....but then again....,maybe it did. While these are largely my thoughts and mine alone (despite some reading of ENSO thread and correlations to pattern from a 10,000 ft view), what has become more obvious is that even if ENSO state is not overwhelming....it is a significant driver and one that probably should get more weight by me/others. I'd also wager that conversations/disco would come from both sides of the aisles from those more knowledgable that myself/others. Depite the warm crew "winning", it could have gone the other way. Sharing for you (or any) that was trying to get a feel for why I was a big more optimistic about upcoming period. I also often share my reasoning with maps or other info to add credibility to my disco/conversations as that's why I'm here. Obviously it didn't work out and others were suggesting that pros weren't feeling it-which is fine...as they were right...but that doesn't really add to conversation/dialog and why some of us are here. That's why they get paid what they do, but I know I'm nowhere near alone in where some of us thought things may have been headed. If you or others have thoughts/opinions, It'd be great to hear, but I wanted to put this out there so that folks didnt think I was merely "wishcasting".

yeah snow is fine, but if we get the flash freeze that is being advertised that'd suck a bit.

Thats a fair point. We've been so focused on the incoming mess that many forget the pattern post frontal can deliver (even if the window is only a few days)

I've been keeping an eye on it for the last couple runs as its been close, but felt reluctant to post on grounds of further incarceration or being banned from the board (joking aside, I really dont give a rats ass-but the tone has been sour so I let it ride), Even if we get it, WAR is at the ready to cook off the snowpack as temps look slated to moderate, but hey we'll take a snow day however we can right? Hoping that we can flip back to a more fav regime as we turn the calendar and start the New Year and as I'll be off in between, I wont feel the need to spend 1 out of every 6 hrs sitting by a computer....lol

I'm just glad we should get this mess over with, so I can hopefully get my (not delayed due to weather) daughter at airport Saturday. Dont shoot me, but anafrontal ice/snow is not needed so close to the holidays. I also cant believe I just typed that. Guess I'm getting soft(er) I think Bubbler said it the other day, and I guess I agree.

huh. Thanks for the pro tip Steve. I dont to fbook much anymore but will check it out. Call home, They'll attest to the snow. Mt Carmel was also surprisingly white on the hilltops. Not sure if much will be left w/ the next cutter washin a bunch away, but it was a pretty drive yesterday.

I took a couple of pics for the doubters but they won’t upload. Too big. Yeah my wife thinks weather is a yawner as well and laughs at how much time I spend in search if it…and reading about it. Worse things to be doing I tell her.

Oh and 27-29 degrees

My nooner obs from an hour ago. Top of 901 exit on 81 Will welcome any in search of a white Christmas. Centralia as well. Now in Bloomsburg and view from third floor of communications dept after my meeting shows the elevational aspect of frosty tops and bare bottoms.

Quite a resume any myriad of experience. Look forward to your sharing thoughts

Truth

yeah I'm a tad nervous about my daughters flight....If they time it right, they can get at elevation and just the engines off and glide over a few states. Ugh

I spent time in the Philly and MA threads years ago. I've seen how they roll (fair to say they have/had a couple issues.....no??) lol Many times sports/general chat is widely accepted, and weather "chatter" I'll call it cause a couple self anointed "content moderators" think its just that...gets frowned upon. Our forum is what it is...and everyone knows well enough what is banter/chatter/disco/wishcasting blah blah blah. This forum is not elite, and some need to stop thinking it otherwise. Come on in...share and make your own conclusions....or find a PRO board to take your elite status to (thats a general statement-and not pointed at you).

Some of us have him.... but some here really need saved tho, and in more ways than just Jesus.

No offense....I'll take the snow maps). They are a tad safer to share.

You may be waiting a while for your load of crust in shorts. You ruined nothing for me pal and I work out, eat and am out the door at 7. Thats more "normal" I'd think, but maybe in these new times, I'm just an old codger just like you (albeit on a diff schedule cause I work out, eat and am out the door by 7am.

and on a short term map....I found a dry slot. Wanna see that too??

I saw some on a 240+ LR map. Wanna see it?

yeah, I'm not even sure what that is.....its ok, dont tell me. I may need some "everyday vernacular" to liven things up a bit. SMH and lol