pasnownut

I was lookin at Op run when I said that. see below. Oops. at same timestamp as you posted, GFS ens diverge, and GEFS is similar to Euro, but GEPS looks notsogood

Im hoping that block can get a bit further west (as well as that ridge out W ). E based NAO ok, but pull that puppy west a bit more and I think we'd like that look. I know I'll sign. Until then....nothing anomalous is fine by me. As you stated, prime time is still to come.

23 at the casa this am, and 10 miles west...35. Sounds like a warm day on tap as soon as the remaining pockets of cold get scoured out. Happy Turkey Eve. See you at the bar tonight (supposedly the biggest drinking day of the year - or sumthin like that).

yeah, just looked and etwown joined in the party.

lol and thanks. And thats all it is...analysis on a disco board, that many of us like to chirp our thoughts on things...wright or wrong, but ya know...there's one knowitall on every forum.

I'm glad to hear it. Youre just fine pal. Sorry you all have to put up with the nonsense....

KMDT current 46 and forecast is 51. looks on track https://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?lat=40.19597500000003&lon=-76.73252999999994#.Y30MVb3MK70 Isnt this fun (or juvenile) everyone..... Ok I've gotta get back to work, so the troll can play for a while.

and to further support my statements about this weekend, loop through the GFS/GEPS/GEFS 500 maps over the last 2 days. Just a tad bit of change...inside 5 days 12z seems to fit the pattern a bit better. Of course that doesnt correlate to a win w/ snow, but at least the maps look a little more like they should IMO. These are my takes (and not from another forum or source), so take it with a grain of salt.

and IF 12z GFS has a clue, 2m temps show one day in the 50's as we turn the calendar, but lotsa 40's showing for max temps. Sounds kinda normal and I'm just fine w/ that. Cold press looks looming in wayoutthereville, although I'm not putting much stock in that, as we've got some sorting out to do well before that.

Like I've been sayin, this isnt done showing its hands....yet. 6z 12z

I cant think of any local public tennis courts that havent been converted. My wife/fam grew up playing tennis (had their own court as well), and she just played pickleball w/ her mom and brother and said she really enjoyed it. I also grew up playin tennis, so I hope to try pickleball next year. Gotta keep movin to stay young....or feel less old.

Yeah but for a couple runs the storm was taking on a stacked look and when it got close, the 700's were close to diving in on the back side. I shared a couple pics to show that, so that ya'll didnt think I was nuts or anything Verbatim it was a coulple ticks away from something salvagable for parts of our area. Obviously that changed, and still is changing.

22 for me this AM. Forecast was 28, so we can go lower than expected once in a while. Yeah, like I suggested for a little while now, this weekends event is still being sorted out. Yesterday I almost posted about the possibility of this storm ending up in CHI...and if you look at 6z...well there you go. WAY west. Thought -AO might help to suppress a bit, but NAO is heading + so that might be the more dominant feature helping to let this thing lift and not stay under us. Again, just my hunches at to whats driving the pattern and how the models respond. As always (and already alluded to), the long range looks better......

Nothing like a 300 +/- mile change in 6hrs on a storm slated for 6 days away.... Enjoy the ride gang. lmao.

39 here at the office, after a low of 18-20 depending where you are around here. Not too shabby, but like you, I dont need deep winter cold anymore....just enough to make it snow and at least feel like the time of season.

we had ours going all weekend. Was nice. yeah this weekend continues to have some challenges. 6Z GFS has primary hangin on too long and screwin up the coastal. ICON/CMC track doesnt look horrible (but stay as primary, but dont have enough cold in place. GFS Ens are notably different GEFS says forget about it, and GEPS says hold on slick.... That said, tellies seem to support a better solution, but as we know, things dont always line up like they should. One thing I'll add to any that think this a slam dunk...look at last several runs of GFS for next weekend and how notable run to run changes have been. To me that says, the models are struggling a bit to figure something out....which doesnt help us weather nerds much. I like the 10,000 ft. view and trying to guess at what could or should happen, and not just what the models show, but maybe thats just me. Happy short week all.

18-22 was the range on the drive in to work. Coldest we've seen by a good amount.

then next panel as storm is almost over philly. Again I say hmmmmmm. Not sure I'd write this off quite yet.

Self made...just like those spring 50 degree days prior to snow the next day....just sayin what the models r showing. Thermals right as storm approaches near go time.

Not sure it gets it done, but its an interesting look. Gotta run. Meat calls. later gang.

18z GFS at 108 has a cold storm and almost wants to vertically stack.....hmmmm

yeah that would suck. I'd rather suppression depression over a wet weekend.

yeah thats not good. Hard to argue about that. 540's waaayyyy too far north. IF that coastal can get cranking...and thats a big if....you'd likely see thermals trend better for NE.

agreed. Thats how I saw it. Ens didnt help much as well, so window may be narrowing a bit.

thx. just checked and nooners didnt help much. Lets see how happy the 18zs feel.