pasnownut

We've had a bit of everything here in Northern Lanco right around 5pm, but now all rain. Congrats to those that are getting first snowfalls.

drizzle in Etown. Hoping for the heavier batch to change that for us in a little while....even if only for a little while.

http://paccsa.org/sites/default/files/webcamlr/netcam.jpg

is that in line w/ earlier runs, or a smidge better or worse? I never looked at it (hangover from last year I guess).

Looking good bud. Enjoy. Now drizzle here in Etown, but I had pingers for a bit, and that was enough to make make me smile.

Pingers in etown..... and maybe one flake mixed in..... and that is a bonus for me, as I didnt think lower levels would support it, so a win for the column cooler argument.

so by stuff.... do you mean white stuff... or wet stuff..... Inquiring minds wanna know.

yeah thats why i deemed it post worthy. Not too often we see lows that low in early Dec. Like I said, more just for entertainment purposes while folks wait for first flakes.

and if thats not cold enough....this one is just posted purely for entertainment purposes (or for firewood gathering if it holds any merit for you). Looking over last few runs beyond 240 has been nothing short of dizzying...so just keep that in mind.....but wowzers. Early start to ice skating.

Not that many are already looking beyond todays first potential snow for many, but the GFS seems to be holding the upcoming weekends cold look. Lake effect looks likely for Atomix and the normal norther/westers towards the end of the weekend as NW wind cranks w/ another shot of cold coming in. But for the rest of us........BBrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrr. .

off hour....we toss

Yep it has, but as a short term model, it has to have some weight, and as the GFS known cool bias, if one blends the 2, IMO its a reasonable solution...even if not the solution many want. Flag hoisted though as it is an outlier, so you may be right. As we've never been in the game for this one, I'm just discussing weather on a weatherboard and while I want it to be wrong...as we are getting into the snow season, I (like others) like the NAM and am hoping we can trust it when the show really starts....if ya know what I mean.

850's are marginal w/ that wind direction IMO and will really need dynamic cooling to get it done...me thinks. Mind you the NAM has been warm for this one, so if temp profiles are off a bit, that can make a notable difference in ones backyard and wet vs white.

Somethin to chew on while we wait for game time. Nooner NAM back to lookin a bit more like I thought it would (from yesterday) and says I 80 southers (save laurels/elevation SC/SW) may have issues. Guess we'll find out soon enough.

Jon, I expect beer in snow pics from you. Just no naked snow angels........K

27 in Akron. Looks like overnights ticked colder....and thats a pleasant surprise (to me). Congrats to many now in the game. Still worried about the SSW wind doing a quick scouring of our precious cold, but if we get the rates...it may offset that even down here (for a while anyway). NWS has r/s mix for me this afternoon and early evening. If we see a little white rain....it's a win for me. For you norther/westers, enjoy and share some pics.

Looking at overnighters seems like a tick south w/ 850's and has you guys looking good. Based on winds, it looks like a changeover is likely for many but not after a nice kickoff to snow season. Nice trend. Enjoy.

looked more like 12z GFS regarding SLP. That helped thermal boundary with a tad less warm air intrusion for lower part of state NW looks good. still stickin w/ my gut for 80 southers having trouble for much in the way of accums.

throwing my congrats out in advance. Enjoy and send pics.

One potential bust is that nooners at 36 hrs...GFS and NAM are 4mb off and 100 miles w/ SLP placement and 700 wind fields and thermal are notably different. NAM is warmer of the 2 (hoists flag). I think one of them is gettin first taste of crow if they dont come to a consensus quickly

Thermals a tad better for some and a tad worse for others. Probably noise, but a slightly weaker SLP w/ less precip (a la 12z) will not help turn wet to white for some.

Seeing that map and knowing philly doubled KLNS makes me cringe. Hoping this year isnt as horrid round our area....but we'll see. Not looking like a big winter but anything close to normal is a win IMO.

Last point I'm trying to make for us 80 southers, is that based on wind direction, we've got mid 30's right on M/D line, and IF this happens, its dynamic cooling is the only way to get some to the promise land...so hope for heavy precip and roll em....verbatim laurels should be fine.

agreed. I'm just trying to temper expectations on this early opportunity. NAM can be a bit overdone and while i want it as much as the next guy, like you, I think the + takeaway is that opps are starting to show and an earlyish start may be evolving. Heres the 700's that dont help the column for us 80 southers (if one looks at wind direction). If it mixes down an dynamic cooling occurs, then maybeso. Lets hope for last minute changes, as it wont take much to see CTP's map have alot more merit than my take.

Here's your "money" panel.....spend it wisely. 700/850"s for same timestamp. SSW winds at surface heres 850's w/ 700's showin same wind. Not gonna do it for I80 southers. (again, except laurels/elevation lucky ones). Hope I'm wrong.