pasnownut

I can remember some years back that we had a similar system (like mid next week) where it ended up so far west, that energy ejected around the base of the cold dome here in the east and gave us some wintery love from above. Not saying that is going to happen, but as you said, with the roller coster we've been riding....I guess it can be a possible outcome. NAO/AO look to stay in - territory, so hey...why not.

and if that persistent trough in the SW shows up again, well, we will need to search for something stronger to offset, as the trough west coupled w/ WAR has been stout and undeniably screwin us up here in the east.

so....as we are once again reminded that just because the NAO is neg, it doesnt necessarily correlate to a cold east. Thats only 1 part of the game, and not the only game in town gang. The PAC is usually our biggest influence in what happens in the east, and one fly in the snow/cold ointment has been the dumping of troughs into the SW, which typically aides in ridging here in the east. I've been watching that on the Ens runs for the last few days, as we need that to stop (or have it offset by something greater) - like a notably stout NAO/AO, and like we are seeing now doesnt always work. Cold is close, but not enough to force things under us. Watch as we get to beyond mid next week, as the longwave pattern seemingly shuts off the troughing out west as the PNA heads into/twds + territory. This hopefully helps to get things better aligned here in the east, or at the minimum gets us to a zonal look, which we all know is better than what weve been seeing. I'll take this look and see how things roll.

looks like our always delayed, but not always denied pattern change is now safely inside 10 days. Hoping a week from now the real fun starts and we are looking at better chances.

Heck, NWS now mentions the outside chance at late flakes for us down here. Friday A chance of rain. Partly sunny, with a high near 45. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Friday Night A chance of rain before 1am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

It feels like a raw Dec. day that we've had about a gazillion times before. I know its not snow, but it still feels good to me.

I was wondering about that last night when going out for wood before bed. Was rather chilly, so any earlier start to precip...it only makes sense.

As I suggested the other day, it makes sense that the models usually have to fit the pattern. With the NAO and AO being solidly neg, it doesnt make sense (to me anyway), that it would cut w/ no problem. The GFS now seems to be seeing that and shunting precip under the blocking. Still not a great look, but one that makes more sense in my mind. not sure how the GFS ends up, but better than the last couple days anyway.

Euro weakens primary a tad and transfers to coastal which ends up keepin NE crew in the potential for this weekend. Still not a great setup but ya know....beggars..... at 120 its closed at 500 off NC coast and enough wrap around for some. IF that could happen a bit sooner, it might help the CAD that is showing up.

CMC is Not a horrid solution, and one sorta how I'd think it could look here in the east. Runs into the cold and gets sheared/shunted south a bit. Nice follow up wave as well. Just need the cold to hold. Something to watch i guess.

GFS just not wanting to come around (or is it scoring a coup). Shows a late transfer (after much has fallen), which is likely a byproduct of AO/NAO helping to suppress a bit (but not enough verbatim). Blizz, hoping your Euro is back on the rails and takes us where we wanna go.

12 NAM extrapolated (dangerous... I know), would suggest to me that this would belly under a 1035 HP that seems to be somewhat anchored in a decent spot up north. Rolled foreward, youd think CAD feature SHOULD help around here. Hmmm

Yeah I know they did some incremental upgrades, but didnt really look into what that entailed. Yeah, hoping the NAM can give us some better looks in the next couple days. One thing I will stand on, is that based on tellies, it argues AGAINST what the GFS shows regarding all of the cutter looks here in the east, so lets hope it comes around.

Its not too far from the CMC, but yeah w/ the Euro notably different, its going to be fun to see how this works out. Having ENS support makes me a tad nervous tho. 6Z for Fri/Sat looked close at 500mb. Was hoping that wouldnt be the case. With PNA headed twds neutral, I'd think a less ridgy look here in the east would start to show up as NAO/AO are solidly negative and you'd think would promote fatter solutions here in the east. Dunno.

Maybe it's just me, but if memory serves, the Euro struggled at times last season. I know weenie rule #1 is likely in play here, but keep that in mind. I dont like what the GFS is advertising, but I'm not sure we should ignore it.

Yeah, the GFS doesnt seem to by latching onto other camps and 6z has gone further west for next weekend, and really doesnt want to play. CMC although west, has would would appear to be front end kinda deal (lacking sufficient cold) and verbatim, not sure I'm buying what that canook model is selling, but hey its snow...even if digital. Will be interesting to see how the next couple of days play out model wise. FWIW, the GFS ENS are rather close to the Op, so this may be a battle model wise.

Nooner GFS Ens quite divergent at 500's as we get closer to 8-10 days out, so that tells me that one of them might be catching on....and one of them is clueless. Unfortunately looking at the Op only adds another solution, and no real consensus IMO. Buckle up boys n girls....next few days may be a roller coaster of possibilities (and emotions for some). Oof.

Hey buddy boy...you can sign a bunch of us up for that to verify. Some of us are just trying to temper optimism as things are really just starting to get underway. 6z showed a step in the right direction. GFS ensembles are looking sexy the further out it goes. Just need to get through next week and we should be trackin legit threats w/ less worry.

You arent alone, but as you stated, its only 12/1. IF this pattern comes to light, the timing couldnt be better to get us all in some festive moods. HH is underway, so you may get teased shortly.

if what is being advertised in the next coupe weeks comes to light, yeah i'd think some fun happy hours may be forthcoming. I think I read that Mag suggsted a suppression worry, but also a potential for flatter zonal look. IF PNA stays neutral, look out for bowling balls and a conveyor belt of chances to start showing, and as the magic blue line gets in a better spot for some/many of us thanks to AO/NAO, it could be a nice period. Hoping that the indicies hold a bit and arent brief, as the window of op would be lessened.

just a little divergence and why Op runs post 240 should be taken w/ a large grain of salt IMO. GEPS verbatim "fits the pattern" if tellies are close to correct. And remember, you gotta get the the 500mb pattern right before worrying about lower levels. Literally a top down approach (for me anyway).

Like him or not, one of the greats of LR forecasting (yes Bastardi) often reminded us that a model run "must fit the pattern". That phrase has stuck w/ me for decades and makes a ton of sense. That said....this run doesnt really fit. NAO/AO solidly neg, w/ PNA still slightly neg (around that timestamp), would not show such ridging out west, and would be notably more supressed in the east, and likely wouldnt show a cutter. Not parsing over details yet, cause at 252, the details are fuzzy at best, but thats a 10,000 ft view from my noggin.

only 41 more iterations to worry about who's getting what. Based on a sneak peak at tellies this morning....I'm willing to throw down some non house moolah that a better look will be had in the coming days.

Good luck w/ the thread Blizz. It feels like winter today so nice start. Keep up the good work.

my pal came home from northern Lyco yesterday and said we could have logged miles in on the pipelines up there....yes...on Tuesday. 4ish inches still otg (Pine hill summit for the doubters). Many cams still were showing some yesterday as well.