pasnownut

Not sure where your gut is getting that feeling, but lets hope you are onto something. BTW for all you lawn lovers, my chickweek spots in my yard are bloomin. Going to have to get at it early this year.

Absolutely. I love being in good company. I'll pack the cooler full for my weather weenie pals. WAR has won all year, and cannot be suppressed enough. I saw bubble's post about the ridging being gone, but my only response to that is how many 240+ "better looking" patterns have materialized this season. Of course we all want to believe (and many of us see it on LR progs), but the look never really holds....it folds. That is why I look at tellies cause they are IMO the dog that wags the tail wrt to pattern progression. We've had decent looks that haven't done much, and we've had decent looks falter. Only thing that hasn't wavered in regards to our base state... is WAR/SER. It literally and figuratively has held the hot hand all winter. Was hoping SSW event would propagate down and get us some help, but if it is....it better show up soon. That convo is above my pay grade though, so maybe Mag or others can chime in as to where/when they think that factors in.

Hope the week was a good one. I lol'd at the bolded portion of your post. Yeah, while I wasnt on vacation, I'm only watching with the casual eye, and after looking at nooners (so far), I'm glad i didnt waste much time on this period. Tellies are ok for the period, but MJO is laggin in 7 and likely not enough to offset/overcome the persistent base state...so its just another in a long series of cutters. I'm about out of waiting for better times, as they will likely need to be next year. I'm back on the mentally moving on train if anyone wants to ride along.

fortunately a cmc is south which as you suggest, give us LSV'rs a chance for a souther solution. Just me wishcasting, but we've been chatting about this "window" for a few days, and its starting to look better for us to have a legit window opening. 500's look better on GFS ens vs op for next weekend and IMO would suggest op would correct south a bit (less diggy and more progressive which would help us thermally down here in taintville). Many more iterations to come. Now I just have to uncancel winter in my brain, and forget about the Harley for a while, as I was "mentally moving on"

I would pay for either 6zGFS CMC scenarios to play out right now. GFS basically snows on me for all but 2 days. IF this would be my winter down here....at this juncture, I'd sign in blood for it to verify. Looking like the blocking may be legit (and enough to keep things further south). Sure hope this look holds (or improves). Good news is that its only a week out. Bad news......its still a week out.

Better way to capture individual event potential is to use the 24hr snowfall maps for any given timestamp (still not a great way to predict MBY totals, but its at least storm specific). As you stated, normal caveats apply wrt what frozen variety one receives. I typically use them primarily for frozen vs non frozen and roll the dice from their....lol

Yeah, 6z progression of the early morch mauler is about as good as it could get for us LSV'rs. Clean snow event. Hell I'm down for a dirty snow event. CMC has the storm, but while its quite a long duration event, its not as favorable for us south of the turnpike. Long ways to go but for now lets just hope the wintery signal holds and see where we go from there.

Thanks for the thoughts and understood. I get what your feeling wrt the progressive movement regarding the MJO and am not sure how it plays out. I was thinking more along the lines of the amplitude being shown - as well as the verbatim assumption that it progresses into P8 quickly at said amplitude. That, coupled with the AO/NAO trending notably into neg departures at that timeframe could bode well on the back end of winter here in the east. I've not looked much into the EPO and hope that it going neg is also another one to add into the good trends. I've personally written off the PNA as damaged goods wrt being any help in the east, and yes, am still fearful that even as the Nina base state is waning, the persistence of the -PNA is a huge stick in the spoke of our winter weather wheels here in the east. We'd be silly to think otherwise, and assuming that base state remains intact, as well as the WAR (that is likely a byproduct of the -PNA keeping the troughiness out west) ...we need other signals to be more pronounced to offset said base state IMO. Thats my thinking anyway, and I'm sure more goes into it than what I'm sharing. it hasnt worked out yet this winter,but if the signals verify as depicted, we may have our shot at some real winter.

here in Etown flipping back n forth w/ occasional parachute mixed in w/ pingers n light rain.

Looking over how things are progressing toward EOM and into Morch, I've gotta say that the 3/4 storm that is showing up on guidance has my interest, as the tellies are starting to support something in that "window". AO/NAO headed solidly negative, and MJO looping from 7 to 8 in that timeframe would give this window some merit. Just gotta believe the MJO progreassion that is being shown, and while it can change, it has changed over the last few days...and for the better i might add. IF it verifies, it is enough of a pronounced move to MAYBE get us into the goods.

Gonna need it's help to salvage some winter. HH GFS is heavy into the sauce. Gonna be a pleaser (virtually for now).

spritzed a bit throughout early afternoon, but dry enough in Akron to replace my wifes swaybar linkage but i did get a wet ass from the driveway. Better than playing w/ soaking wet firewood (which is why i took off today...other than needing a mental health day for myself). Happy weekend ya snowless weenies.

Sorry for what? Like him or not, JB punting based on MJO plots/progressions has WAY more weight than a 384 hr snow map shown from an Op run. Not sure why any would argue that. Just silly talk. Sharing JB is every bit as acceptable as peeps posting snippets from other subs/college meteo depts. JB's gone rogue, but that doesnt take away from his abilities....it just hides them rather well :).

theme of the winter. Even though Nina has started to fade (currently aoa -.8), early thoughts of us trending twds neutral by now (or by early spring) have not materialized, and me thinks that base state is going to be the death of whatever chances we may have had for backend action for winter). i dont know enough about Enso, but i know enough to know the regime really isnt changing much and makes me nervous about anything else being able to fight it before we close the books, as it truely has had the hot hand for us here in the East. Dunno.

the persistence of the WAR is undoubtedly killing off anything that tries to get set up/established. If the MJO gets outta favorable 8/1/2 as quickly as it got in, well that'd put a notable sized fork in the window we were looking at for late feb/early march. Mag posted the mjo plot earlier, and you can see that it is low amplititude 8 anyway, and as I think he suggested (and a couple of us have earlier this winter), you gotta have something more notable to offset the persistant ridging in the AO/NAO space, and while the NAO looks to get better, not sure if it can/will overcome. As I suggested last week, I'm just sittin back and playin watch n see, but as of now, I'm still a little more than cautious as I'm not feeling it yet. Hoping the SSW that is currently downwelling, can cause enough of a wholesale regime change to offset what we've been seeing all "winter".

CMC can be added to the "maybe" list. Still setting a really low bar, but I'll keep playin along.

and as I'm just posting above in fun, of course I'm rootin this on like I always do, even though it will likely be gone/different in 6 hrs. Just need some other model support. Tellies still don't look good overall, but NAO, MJO look a little better than last week for sure (looking into next week and beyond), so like I suggested late last week, lets hope for a continued trend towards better indicies and maybe one of these deal w/ work out. Climo would suggest that as we approach back end of winter and water temps off east coast are about as cool as they are going to get, that maybe we can get the east coast lined up a little better for winter fun before we close the books.

Oh its on somethin alright.... Since Valentines Day is for lovers....does that include lovers of snow?

That plus my fellow salesrep coming in and saying "pitchers and catchers reporting soon".... I may start my hibernation a few weeks ahead of my normal this year. (not that i hate baseball, but its a longass season that my ADHD doesnt do well w/).

I'm surprised noone posted the weekend 15" snow map the GFS had. Now, as usual, POOF. and fwiw, no other models (outside of GFS) have anything....cept the Euro right around the 240 mark. Of course some consolation flakes may fly post frontal, but we know that deal all too well.

Great game, but yep, sad to see the refs have influence in the outcome. And for those that say "hey, he admitted he did it", yes, that's true, but that's not the crux of the problem. IF we'd all rewatch the game, I'd bet big $$ that many subjective penalties were made w/ the little yellow flag left tucked in belt where it should have been in this instance. At the minimum, this was subjective at BEST....his hand was on his backside, but no visible tuggin. THATS why "us" eagles are a tad sore, as it surely changed the momentum going from 4th down, to 1st and basically closing the window on letting 2 great teams battle down to the wire. Congrats Andy Reid (my fav coach of all time), Kelce bros and to both teams. Great seasons and still love my Eagles. Ok....now back to the weather.............There is none for the foreseeable future.

Have a great weekend!! Sounds like a good time coming. It's about HH for me as well.

GEPS and GEFS are not droolworthy at all. Hoping they come around as things adjust again, but WAR really shows little sign of a wholesale shift from what we've seen so far this "winter", so I'm gonna be a big skeptic until proven otherwise. OTOH, one good thing that is showing is that Canada looks to have cold building, but without AO/NAO, it may stay too far north for us. Just something to watch.

Window should be closed a bit IMO.

Hey Nannook, I will throw $20 in if you send pics of you swimming (must be chest deep and in water for 3 min.....:)