pasnownut

dont look at the HH NAM. You might wanna buy a snowglobe if you wanna see flakes flyin as you are now teetering on the r/s line. Sauss n Blizz may be flaking while you are drinkin your sorrows away w/ white rain. southern tier back to Adams county is out (save a few pitty flakes early on). Mind you this is verbatim, but the north tick is not to be denied. Column is cool, but surface notsomuch. Precip rates/dews will help some overcome marginal surface, but not for all (like us southers)

IMO the Monday storm could be the best one to hang your snow hats on.... At least is a miller A coming from the south and staying under us. Best upside chance at big fun me thinks. After that NAO heads for neutral, and no other overwhelming signs to offset persistence of the season. GFS still way south of Euro, so a consensus blend still give this one a chance.

Looks like the ITT express needs to head north for rd#1. My guess is some seats have come avail. Suckasswinter

Glad you like the PAGCSC website. I helped build it a few years ago and was webmaster until last year when I said that I had my fill of helping w/ the club.

My place in Gaines got 9" from last event. Couple good days of snowmobiling from what I've seen on SM. I'da posted pics from cams, but I get grilled enough in here....

Northern 1/2 of the state has looked good for days now. Not sure why you are surprised?? I'll be in Houtzdale enjoying this snow w/ you tomorrow night. My comments about things not looking good were more for the LSV/souther crew that may be in trouble thermally for the next couple events. Central/northers should have some fun for both.

It is the best looking pattern that we've had, but as some of us saw it coming, this year has been proving that persistence (WAR/SER) coupled w/ a bad PNA flow regime, has been stout, and something that needs alot to overcome. We need better PNA ridging to get better troughing here in the east. I'm not saying the upcoming events are doa, and I'm hopeful we can score w/ one of them, but we really are at the back end of the window (no matter how good things look in this horrid winter), so one needs to keep that in mind when looking at snow maps.

I've been blowing the trough axis horn for a while now, as thats been my worry. While we have the NAO helping, the persistent ridging out in front of the events is still hurting our chances. Yes, the boundary layer has dropped notably closer, but its still not enough for many in our group. That's all I've been trying to say. Northern crew should do ok/well. Yay for them. IMO thermal profiles while better, are still marginal (looking at 850's/2m temps) and knowing that its almost mid march. I'm just tempering expectations through this period. Of course the snowhound in me wants this to happen, but the realist has hold of the leash.

When the GFS makes it inevitable tick north, it'll be the ultimate kick in the kahoonas for Friday. At least it was "closer to something" For the sun/monday deal, its already slipping away for some/many. Not sure where it ends up, but at least its something to track?? Im trying to put a + spin on reality.

We'll see. Temps for the best panel of precip says that may be further north than Tpike. You can likely add a couple deg for this as is often the case.

We needed a quicker transfer for Friday to work. Primary to Central Ohio is the kill shot for us southers. Without the blocking, it'd be headed for Chicago like most others this year. At least its giving some in our area a chance at winter precip. And even if we could have gotten the quicker transfer.....you have a dreaded dryslot, which a storm being so close (even if it was under us a bit more) - would likely result in the Susqu skip zone as coastal takes over.

For Friday, as its currently depicted, marginal and mid march does not bode well for lower 1/3 of state. Like I said, mood snows that whiten the ground is better than nothing. For Monday dealeo, I just saw the cmc and would be giddy if we could hold that look. Its really about as optimal as it could get here...but thats me also wishing it to be the correct solution.

Sounds reasonable. Friday has been too far W and N for us LSV'rs (although it continues to eek SE) but like you suggest, its a marginal event for many here cept true ctp'rs and points N/W/NE Monday, while I know everyone has seen some of the outputs on the models, really is ok as currently modeled. Trough axis really doesn't let it gain much latitude (even though it likely will as we near game time), and it really cant bomb out till offshore and beyond our "window of chance" with it. NAO is doing its thingy and keeping it suppressed, so we just get some nice mood snows and hopefully a nice snow day...no matter how much is otg/imby. Beyond that....gotta root on the Ens guidance as GFS op shows more of what we've become accustomed to, cutters then cold.

Here is why it cant climb. Been sayin this for days. Trough axis. and yes....I'll gladly take my couple inches n like it.

Yeah I googled it after I asked. Thx

the caboose is sometimes the KABOOM when patterns break down, and while its a little too far out to tell if its breaking down, if you see the NAO heading +, if timed right, that could do it.

after looking at other posts, it seems that it was already noticed by others. Dont name it after me

Its only 354 hrs from happenin....blizz of '23. THIS is the look we want.

As it always is. At least there is some winter showing up for the northern 1/2 - 2/3 of the state for this weekend. They can pad stats in this horrid winter.

This was my worry for the last few days. With a trough axis like this, its gonna be hard to lift into the block. We go from cutters to suppression. As already alluded to, when the block relaxes, thats when something can come up and say hello. Unfortunately, when block relaxes, so does the cold and what you get will be gone quick in mid march. Maybe #3 will be the one to get it done.

They are going into archives to pull out a map that shows good snows for our area....

Fair point. If I said progressive until it hits the coast, then bombs notably east and north, is that better ? Once it left our area, I didnt really look at later panels as it doesnt help mby. Let me restate that the trough axis is of a more progressive nature for our latitude, even though the 500 is closed off, and the storm does retrograde well ENE of us, for our hood its worth little to nothing for ALL of our group.

But even if we can get that 100 mile jog S, we'd need to hold it there till Friday as you know it ticks N inside 24. Furthermore the progressive flow would create a scraper to the E while us westers smoke cirrus and flip the Jersey Birds the bird. Loop the 500's and you'll see what i'm saying. Trough axis keeps it scootin well east for most east coasters.

Yeah there is, but if one looks at the 500's as i suggested a bit ago, there is a rather progressive look to the trough axix, so one needs to factor that in when thinking of what may/may not happen.

Well said bud. We need this well below us...not on top of us.