pasnownut

12z is an absolutely perfect depiction of a CTP screw job. Primary holds onto the lakes (jacks our thermals) and they primary pops off NJ coast (way too far N and E for us to get any coastal loving)...and we get shafted....dry shafted.

LOL's. Believe whatever you want. Just posting what the map shows. I'll "enjoy my typical 7 snowflakes. Snow maps largely N of where they were at 18z yesterday. While i typically enjoy every snowflake I see, I'm about tired of being able to count them on my 4 appendages...and yes, on occasion I may need to use my 5th. Seems fiiting for this winter of getting the shaft. 18z from yesterday. 12z today

I cant wait for the winter to end....and give mo nature a year to reset in hopes of a better than ratter for '23-24. Even though were getting the cold to come, the pattern just doesn't look conducive to anything big snow wise. Not saying that it cant happen whatsoever, but looking at the models/evolution just doesn't give me a tingly feeling. Hoping my feeling is wrong and you all are sittin on the train looking at perty white landscape, but I guess I'm just jaded, and from my view, it just isnt screamin potential that some here are seeing. Pattern appears to remain progressive enough that nothing big can bomb (view 500 ens loops and trough axis), but surely we may score some nickel/dimes in the coming cold. Thats where my head is at anyway, but mind you I have a shitton of congestion in it right now, so that may by whats clouding my view. I

Notable jump N on nooner NAM's for tonights event. From 18z yesterday to 12z that's about 75-100ish mile jump. Not surprised, and largely why I wasnt jacked up about it, as it never really looked good for us/true central (yes, true central likely sees some, but not much to get giddy about). Pawatch to Bradford/ county and points E should have a nice little event, but something to remember as this good period may be looming.

Heres what we have to hang our hat on, cause the other signals aren't overwhelmingly awesome. This hi amp move into 8/1/2 is really winters "last" hurrah. While we've had other decent patterns where several tellies have looked favorable, we just weren't able to offset the base state this season, and MJO wise, none have had the magninute of this one. Hoping this can get it done quick cause other tellies are showing less favorable looks beyond next week, and that coupled w/ typical climo as we approach spring, says we typically need more help to get something good to happen. I'm happy to see this, but am not sold that it alone is enough as we get into mid march. A month ago yeah maybe. I hope you all enjoy the ride on the ITT Express...and save a seat in the back for me, I may buy a last minute ticket.

I've been doing the same. Some unbelievable snows out there.

Go look at the CMC. Not too dissimilar from GFS in how it gets it done....but it really gets it done....lol

And if the ground is brown and frozen.....tha'll just really suck. At least have it look like winter if its gonna do what its gonna do.

Yeah bubbler or someone else posted a similar graphic last week. I saw a tree w/ buds popping on way in this morning. There could be a lot of carnage if the cold look holds. 2m temp anoms arent crazy cold, but to kill sensative stuff, they just have to be cold enough.

yes please and thanks in advance.

and fwiw, if the blocking continues to press, one could see this all trend south, so I'd not put much stock in a D7 op run (ens guidance is less amped at 500 right now, so proceed with caution). It does look like this period holds potential, and while you can shovel it (yet), its a better look than we've had for some time (if it holds).

Yeah I'm just doing a verbatim analysis....so take it w/ a grain of

uhh dont you mean RRRRRRRR (cruize ship horn). Classic miller B w/ ctp screwjob after a bit of front end action.

CMC sure does have a crowd pleaser on it for next weekend. Maybe Trainer does get the only named storm of the season?

i hate hate hate humidity. Thanks for the reminder that it's coming.

Not saying YOU did. But you've seen the references. That's what I'm commenting on. I thought I read you stating that you were never into this weekend, but were targeting next week. Maybe I was wrong. NBD regardless. I know you're hanging your hat on the SSW downwelling to create the meaningful change needed here in the east, as that helps to force the NAO negative. I've done that plenty myself in the past, but as we both know, that, like tellies it is considered voodoo weather in some circles. I think it has merit for sure, and hope it comes to light, as I referenced it well over a week ago. Only worry is that while we may get the pattern "right", it may be too deep into Morch to really get more than 1 or 2 chances. Yes, I know '93 and other late events come to mind, but I think that premature at this juncture. if the look holds till next week at this time...well then peeps can start that chatter....assuming the rest of the ducks hit the pond. For now, its up in the air.

This whole winter has been a nothin burger. Tomorrow will be at best a couple hours of mixed for central and maybe a bit more for NE'rs, but to me its no "winter" event....and to most it'll be a just another tease. For those touting the Trainer storm for next week, dont look at the GFS, as it has it cutting for Nebraska. Only way that can work (and it has) is if it goes so far west that the secondary runs the block/boundary here in the NE and forces a pop somewhere off the VA NC coast. Thats a longshot, but a way to get a storm assuming the blocking starts to take hold. Still too much time to fret over it.

yeah, even if we get our pattern change (which I feel will moderate based on tellies not looking so great IMO), its really becoming too little to late for me/others. Its MORCH and we know all too well about sun angles n stuff, so here today and gone tomorrow really is fine, but not what most of us relish. My chasing is about done for the season, so if it happens great....if not, like you said....onward.

Here's the "best" panel from our beloved...... extrapolate at will.

thats only his first call.... he'll have 3 or 4 more before any storms come...

we had a coating of sleet when I went to bed. Was pingin pretty good off the tin roof. While it was nice to see (and yes I counted a handful of snowflakes on way home from work yesterday), still really a meh in my book. This weekend is slippin away (as of last 2 days), so if a reversal is happenin, it better start real soon (fwiw me thinks that aint happenin).

Agreed. Its a simple procedure that'll be a big help for the little one. Good luck @Atomixwx

an extra hour to stare at brown grass...........

only thing I'll say I'm hanging a thread of hope on is that the MR guidance is showing persistent troughing, but as PNA still sucks, its a look of suppression for anything small and once a biggun comes along, its back to cutterville. Verbatim the GFS Op shows about a week of cold post weekend cutter, but nothing appreciable until the next cutter comes AOA 3/12-13. Not saying something cant pop, but no big dogs in this hunt until it may be too warm. i need not remind yall how good things looked just a couple days ago. Hell, i was pulling my dusty chips outta storage and getting ready to throw some down. Telles backed off and whalla....here we are and thats pretty much where we've been (thinks of window crack pic I posted a little while ago) Only other caveat to consider is that the GFS ens twins look nothing alike as we get to 3 12 ish and by that time, were going to need a LOT of help for something notable. It can happen, but things better realign quick. Clocks still tickin but times almost up.

You know were all secretly pulling for you to be right..... My gut is only feeling the leftovers i just threw down. Weather natsomuch.