pasnownut

something to be mindful of, is that if/when we taint, its pingerville and not rain. I'd think tomorrow skew Ts can start being considered and will hold more weight once we define primary/secondary SLP placements and timing of jump to the coast. Verbatim, HH Nam is a razors edge for lsv, with 850's still safe through entirety. Thats a pinger signal if we ever saw one, and just a little wiggle south, can keep the pingers right on the M/D line, or if north, up to second tier souther counties. If this look could hold, I'd sign right now and not fret the upside that it doesnt show for us southeasters. A little move back south tonight and M/D line sees a nice bump in snow totals. Really not sure how this cookie crumbles, but at least we've got the cookie firmly in our grasp.

back from philly and morgantown meetings. HH Nam was a touch better wrt transition zone eeking south a bit from 12z. sorta splitin hairs i know, but when your in that battlezones, a little can mean a lot. Primary hangin too tough verbatim.

Well at least I’m in the qpf bullseye. What it falls as, find out in 36ish hrs. Hoping for 80/20 snow/pingers

Im a realist so I’m sticking with my gut down in our hoods and will be pleasantly surprised if wrong. If primary dies a quicker death mitigating waa I’ll tip my hat to his “bullish” call.

Like you I expect it. Climo is hard to argue against down here when miller Bs are being discussed. Just hoping we eek out a good dump prior to it.

Even if we pull off all snow in LSV, gut says 12-13:1 for us. 15:1 likely hills north of the burg and towards waterboy up in da Skook.

Best news if the day. Primary needs quick death or to be weaker to keep thermals safe.

Euro had similar progression. Glad to hear.

I just want that pink below is to stay there. Is that asking too much. lol

Great to hear.

headed out. Keep this bad boy squarely in our sights today gang. Dont let go of the rudder. Have fun model watchin.

I'll not be up at 2am waiting for it to start. I'll get up around 4-5 and hope that we've saturated and turn the snow machine on for the entire day.

In truth it is tucked, but the progressive/non stalled evolution is why we miss def bands here, but further NE, it could be game on. And speaking of, If patriots were playin in foxborough and not denver, man o man that'd be a fun one to watch. sadly no so.

Mind you, i'm just a weenie like you, but based on trajectory and synoptics, I think taint is minimal/mitigated as a result. IF trough axis was more neg tilted, I'd think many easters would taint/rain, but as it is coming at us and not up, thats why I'm guessing we'll do ok (yeah, likely some taint, but not until we get a substantial thumpin). As antecedent cold is stoudt, and I'm hoping CAD saves us east of the Apps. There is notable wraparound qpf being depicted on some models, but my gut says deform/deathbands would likely be further NE when coastal/secondary really gets crankin. My gut says were just standard run of the mill wraparound lite snow to finish. These are merely my thoughts, and remember, you asked for them. hehe Gonna b a fun one no matter. Just glad the entire state is in the game for a good event.

actually as depicted by many models, secondary takes a rather favorable path NE. While we have stoudt HP up north to feed eastern spine of Apps w/ our CAD, lack of blocking (50/50) means there is no reason for this to stall, and should remain somewhat progressive. Longer duration being shown is more of a byproduct of bariclonicity and NS/SS playing off of each other. Longer duration being shown on some also is a result of wraparound/deformation which often happens in notable events like this. Truth told, the outcomes being shown, are almost as good as it gets based on upper air features, and we really cant ask for more IMO.

yep, transfer does happen, and GFS has it taking a classic path Ne up the coast. 6z is even better than 0z. Goalposts are starting to narrow, and regardless of what we all want/wish for, this looks to be a memorable event.

now that is a picture not often seen for Pa. Wow...just wow.

ive really not looked post storm, but yeah, that'd be rather disruptive to travel if the state has =/- 12" otg like some models show. Ol fashioned winter sounds awesome.

yeah i know it is but as you know, we look at all for trends and there are 2 that think the warming and taint should be a concern (in addition to typical climo that always has that fear for us southers). I'd think if we "survive" today, we'll be ok, and yeah, if we taint after we get pounded, thats fine.

with GFS Ukie, and Euro looking good to really good, that's a nice way to start the day. Surely not wise to discount Icon and CMC, but regardless it looks like taint is possible but shouldnt be a major factor north of M/D line. Hope that trend holds today.

so far 6z's largely held serve but Icon has us southers sniffin and seein taint. Regardless of antecedent cold, the lack of 50/50 is possibly why, but my hopes is that as CAD which is often stronger than modelled, will give the late correction S as we near go time will hopefully bring southers back. LIke others have stated, i'd be ok w/ a more strung out/less pronounced deal. Would like to see the quicker secondary pop as well, but thats wishcasting and doesnt really count disco wise. IMO that'd be a byproduct of a more strung out deal. today is make it or break it day IMO. I'll be on the road much of it, but will be watchin as best i can.

sno maps for cmc also give us southers a little more wiggle room. Trend was a good one for now. ttfn

cmc at 96 pops secondary 75 miles off s jerzy coast I'm right on the taint line, but I'd likely be pingin. wraps up at 102 is not bad either, but not GFS....my new love (well for the next 6 hrs anyway) to whomever is on the night shift....keep ahold of the wheel. gnight all

CMC at 90 has 1003 primary slightly n of 12z and is in southern ohio. warm nose is there

at the minimum, this one gives us southers a little breathing room, cause we were feeling the heat earlier today. if this is a byproduct of the new data being ingested, keep eatin what your eatin GFS