pasnownut

NAM was king in 2016. GFS wants the crown in 2026

Man if every i wanted to believe in the GFS, this run is it. It's a DOOZY w/ 12+ for SE Pa

Or go look at nooner GFS. Beatdown incoming.

My oldish bones said the same thing the last 2 days. They prefer 20 crisp n clear vs 35-37 damp dreary. guess i do still like the cold more than I thought.

have you looded at cmc/euro/ens? Not sure I'm feeling the same as you. GFS might be BEST, case scenario, but plenty of other guidance showing a decent event. We've all done this long enough to not focus on best case, as odds are extremely low of it verifying, but consensus suggests were getting a modest event sunday.

I'm just happy to see that we have a chance, and that while not a lock, it surely is something that could pad stats and get trainer to give our region the A grade that we have wanted for a long time. CMC was a notable step back twds something appreciable. With so much energy/vorts to sort, I'd imagine we still have a day or 2 of notable swings/misses to sort out until players take the field (conus).

nooner GFS keeps hope alive. ticked notably W with SLP and 500s a bit more neg tilt. A nice step back towards something, and not away from it.

Yes, this year sure has bucked the typical norther trends. last weeks "event" came slightly north and we went from nothing to fringed. Seasonal tendency does not show up on tellies or factor into algorithms, so while the last 24 hrs hasn't been trends we want to see, as Mag suggested, you gotta look at 500's first before figuring out how the lower levels are gonna look. That said, there is a lot of sorting to do. Was really hoping the earlier phase was going to work out, but Friday's deal is screwin the snow pooch and not giving time/spacing to dive in, keeping the flow more progressive.

oh ok. Thought it the other way around. i figured you stat guys could keep me straight.

wasnt that the case for our late Jan snowbonanza? me thinks Euro played catch up. GFS was sniffin early

After the morning I've had, if I can....you can. suckitupbuttercup

this is what I want to see.... On monday morning. Till then...just perty colors IMBY

like you/others stated, long way to go here, and while the nooners look good, as antecedent cold is not stoudt, yeah, nails gonna b bitten down here (assuming GFS has a clue....)

40/70 is lat/lon for "benchmark" for classic noreasters/snowstorm signal. Verbatim map you shared was 200miles wsw of that location. That is called "tucked". Since you new, take notes....too old to have to repeat myself

benchmark is 40/70 lat/lon. this is notably W by about 200 miles thats a legit worry for you and I

yes SSW was to be peturbed, and if so, would not show up at lower levels (lag time). MJO wasnt horribile looking but NAO was going notably + and trough west often means ridge east. Hoping things sort out a bit better moving forward. this weekend looks rather nice.

also not sure how much time we have left, cause tellies look less than stellar beyond, so yall might wanna get pom poms out for this one.

Yep. Just checked pivotal and it has a B w/ nice transfer. Little scary thermally, but I'd sign. so, Ukie/GFS/Icon have us snowing Sunday. Let see how this goes, but yeah definitely something to watch.

GFS still has decent event for same time frame. While I know we are skeptics of much modeling of late, one thing that GFS has done a decent job of in recent years, is seeing an event at 7 days. While obviously not a lock, it often has the right general idea, and since I like what it's showing in the last few runs. I'm huggin.

Just saw it. If we could get this to deliver as depicted, just give me a few days to enjoy and I'll stop wishing for snow..... Till the next one comes. 36 hr event verbatim.

Started mixing w/ snow about 1 hour ago, and now light snow falling. Not stickin to anything other than existing snow. Blizz, it doesnt look like were done trackin yet. Glad to see we have a little more time. Heres to a good week and hopefully more chances. Next weekend sure does look like a good window of opportunity.

Not to me. I said it days ago. Wasnt understanding why this was stuck in the south. NAO lifting out says come north to me, and wasnt adding up for it to drift aimlessly due east. I am surprised it took so long for some majors to latch on, but I'm glad they are.

as stated many times before, you and I are like minded wrt our love of winter landscape and how sleet is the ultimate pack densifier. think we hold on till Tues/Wed then the landscape starts to change. What a run.

yikes. hope you feel better soon

Yeah one thing that has been consistent is the cold pool in the east. As arctic boundary retreats its going to warm, but we've been cold for some time, and I wonder how much staying power it will have. Model depending, 850s show SW flow only one or two periods in the next 7-10days, and arctic boundary while north, is still close enough to do its thing, and not cook us. My goal is to keep snow cover as long as possible, and I think into mid next week, it should be bye and large safe, but slowly dwindling. Walked on my frozen tundra last evening getting wood, and man, it is stoudt.