pasnownut
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Everything posted by pasnownut
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@36 LP about 25 miles EAST of 12z. Looks like we all stay white verbatim.
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This was the correction I was suggesting might happen for you this morning. There was just a little too much bouncing around of LP's and it didnt seem right. Mind you ....no chest thumping yet, because we really have 3 more runs till show time, so this is just me feeling better about my suspicions possibly being legit.
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Honestly its as good as we can expect here. I never thought or believed we'd be on the podium for snow amounts for this one. You to voyagerville and surrounding locals have been in the crosshairs and are in the jackspots. I'm pulling for all of you. I just want my 12+ and I'm set. If that deformation band plays out as modeled, I may run at 15".
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drops the mic............
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dude, the 3k is truely NSFW.....FORUM wide including western brethren. go toggle the snow panels. Sweet mother of all things holy.....
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12z 18z
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@35 it still wants to jump the LP west (this is what I didnt get at 12z either), but the southward adjustment seems to help the thermal boundary and they are a little more stout.
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@33 Voyager and I wholeheartedly approve...
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lol....and at 29 the NAM is 25-50 miles SOUTH of 12z. precip responds in a nice way as well. Giddy up....
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its been fun for sure. Nice to be doing this again. As long as it doesnt get any further west, I'm with you on being just fine w/ this. It sure is a rarity when we all are flirting w/ 12+ accums, and some potentially double that. Its still a forumwide event.
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I'm still fine w/ that, cause sleet will be mixed in. Pack retention....
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Youda thought i was tryin some of Atomix special stuff while doing pbp...
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I think you are correct.
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dude that was NOT my best work. I'll stay away from pivotal from now on. Apologies. Euro caved to the tucked solutions. I'm toast.
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Corrections. I hate pivotal. at 42 WEST slightly. at 48 it is EAST notably. was togglin through 0z and 12z and got all discombobulated
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12z
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@60 it is notably east. Likely our 6 hour window of pings for lsv. Updated my timestamps. Not used to pivotal sorry for confusion
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@54 it came west. just toggled. through it. its maybe 25 miles but follows the tucked theme. UGH
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Euro has initialized......oh the freakin drama. I HATE drama..... But I'll watch this episode of "As our Snow/Sleet Falls"
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NWS still likes me...for now
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Yep. Agreed. Are you buying the "jump" to the western bay?? Several models show almost a retrograde kinda look, and not a progressive one. Thats my rub. Its had a progressive look for days, and now LP jumps west and erodes our precious thermals. IMO thats what I'm hoping is noise and not a noose for my area.
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Yeah complaining about 6 vs 16 is probably not right, but I've been sucked in and see enough to see it in jeopardy. I'm not panicking. If I get a crap ton of sleet on top of 6-10 I'll be alright.
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Hoping that verifies. Guess we'll find out shortly.
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Euro will really tip the scales IMO. Parsing over thermal profiles, we are still safe, although SE is marginally so for a few panels. Thats going over the 700's and 850's, so while best forcing may be NW, we may depend on rates prior to any changeover for eastern locals. Were on the edge, but still have a little buffer.
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CMC loves CTP, but tells me to get tissues ready. Tucked LP is undeniable on nooners. Still scratchin my head tho. In summary of nooners...I have less confidence for mby, but think mag to hazelton and areas around are big winners of the 12 runs.
