pasnownut

Was splitting firewood in shorts n t shirt last evening...still sweated a bit. WAAAYYY tooo early for that crap but I know its coming. Not sure what I missed in the MA trash talk forum, but dont really miss that place one bit. It was a means to an end for me. We've added a few here this year and the convo has been just fine w/ me. I dont need or miss the pissin and moaning one bit. They are a snarky click down there (save then normal good ones - and if any of them are reading this....kudos for keeping it real).

based on track/evolution, that's where I'd put my money....including Wspt and points ENE.

You said nearly the same at 6z.... sounds like your theme may be looking like a trend. Was just at a clients.....I hate it already. #sweatin

and if you loop op back a few runs, the word yoyo comes to mind. Not trying to debbie, but just being real as it really does take a lot more things to go right as we look to close the books on Winter 20-21.

Let me help you......don'l look....unless you like WAR and warmth... thats not even zonal....thats MORCH like weather. Mind you speaking verbatim as we are WAAYYYYY beyond range of consideration, but 12z Op was not one to hang hope onto IMO and beyond next weekend really is not in agreement w/ Ens guidance 6z 12z

As bubbles just said in another post, momma nature doesnt have to follow the meteo 101 rules of engagement in the weather war we wage in winter. If one looks at the 500 map I posted, and add to it the factor that the AO is now in a naturally retreating state, we need extra help from AO/NAO forcing to "get the boundary right" in that flow pattern in March. Scroll through the rest of the loop and verbatim....its curtains for winter 2021 IMO. Zonal/pac air as far as the eye can see. We need to see some semblance of blocking start to show quickly, as our normal window is closing. Thats all i'm pointing out, is that its no longer January (when its easier to snow).

Yes, it sure is, but this flow doesnt ooz cutoff. That's all I'm sayin. You could launch a glider in N Cali, and itd land in Cashtowns back yard.

Tellies suggest the window is open, but Ens guidance does not agree w/ Op so proceed w/ caution. After next weeks warmup, a rather zonal pattern looks to be en route. Sorta wierd to see how flat the 500 flow is on Ens guidance post 2/14. I agree w/ loosetoe that March and shortening wavelengths are 2 great ingredients for humdingers to pop. That flow verbatim is a dud.

That'd be a great end to a really good winter IMO. I'd be just fine w/ that. Let it stick around a couple days and I'm good.

After next weeks warmup, there does seem to be a decent window for something to pop. Green beer w/ a white/frosty topping on it. This is a decent look from way out there. Only 47 runs away from verifying.....hehe

lol..i/we have a bush off of my back porch that has seen a lot of one eyed worms.... Its the "go to" spot when friends are over....lol

thats a fabulous winter IMO. One I dream of. Get a biggy and then just keep it fresh for a couple months....perfect.

Nice. I like snow up until st. pattys day, then I worry a lot less about it, as the window is really closing, but like others have stated, I'll always take a doozy whenever it's possible. The ridging on the maps from next week is rather stout, and will likely over perform IMO, and I'll just enjoy the first spring warmth and see where we go beyond d10.

Got up at 3. Just missed seeing the snow. Rain here now but looks like maybe 1” ish here.

Wow. That’s good to hear. Dp has to help. Happy weekend all.

I saw 42-43 on way home from office snow hangin on in the fields north of Lititz (and mby), but starting to see stuff pokin through. Got a pic on phone. Will share in a bit.

That cutoff is really nice, but once it scoots, we scorch unless we backdoor....wowzers out west.

Now thats some dirty talk. Keep it up. Im intrigued. Will dive in over the weekend.

and theres your answer. Need HP to hold...it scooted.

Need blocking or that look wouldn't hold. Check next couple panels to see where HP is. Look at 500's and that'll help tell the tale. NAO touted to be aoa neutral would give this a chance IMO. I'm fried sitting at work....just a shit day. Bring this one home boys. I'd be glad to sign off on winter if you can.

Yeah not sure what hes looking at. Maybe just trying to kill my snow a bit quicker

it's 2 separate systems, and has been for several days.

safe bet. I'll take a slushy coating to see the ground white once again and call it a day (notice i didnt say season). Way too early for that call IMO.

take a picture though. Looks like it wont last very long :(. I may get up late tonight (as I'm often up anyway), and turn the backyard light and watch the flakes fall. Just in case.....ya know. My son and his girlfriend are headed to the cabin with some friends to snowmobile, as they are still grooming the trails (as of yesterday), and trying to get another weekend on the trails before it gets patchy. Still a decent 12" OTG up in north central (up on top).