pasnownut

We could rename Hburg the asscrack of Pa. stuff to see on either side, but not much in between..... I'm Just Playin sorta..............

just like the 12k had yesterday...... HMMMMM

I'll wait for it like I wait for anafrontal snows.................................................................................................

yep....pre fontal w/ little/no sun....and frankly quite a thick cloud deck for much of the day here in the LSV. Maybe your area is different.

all good. i knew exactly what you were gettin at. In my noggin I can see how with all of these "boxes being checked off", how things might blossom overhead a bit, further enhancing rain totals in some buckets....hoping yours is one of em. I'm just not seeing the severe potential.

I kno you were....just playin which ya....lol

Yeah, i guess I shoulda stated gully washers, but I'd think some minor flash flooding if there is any enhancement like the bid dogs think there will be. Just another hunch.

now stop....he's one of us....but he's more of a realist like myself.

dp up to 79 here. Bit thick for sure. Id be more worried about flash flooding then bow echos.

then I guess time will tell. Sun is and always has been the biggest spark for creating instability and causing needed lift. Yes, there is more to it than that, but they are not as big of sparks IMO. Lower max temps, and no sun are 2 big empty boxes unchecked IMO. I'll stick w/ my call.....all good. If I'm wrong, I'm happy for you storm chasers. Enjoy. I want the rain (and we are getting it as I type), so its a win for me anyway.

If by upstream you mean post frontal...then no...it isnt going to do anything. Sun needs to be out NOW for the LSV to get T boomers crankin. Its currently light rain in Etown. Squashes the instability. Yes we can still get good rains though.

when looking at the temp and dp's, it looks more like a run o da mill frontal passage w/ some rain on it. Didnt see enough variance on either side of the front to lift my eyebrows much. it is a bit thick out so I'm sure theres enough saturation for some good rain, but I guess we'll see if there is more of a show in a few hours.

looking at the temp/dews it looks like best instability might be south of MD line. Currently cloudy in Etown. Didnt see the sun yet today.

Unfortunately what the 6z had....the nooner 12k Nam just UN nam'd us. Kpit does the best while the energy headed towards Rouzerville goes poof like a popcorn fart right over his head. 3k looks decent with almost a squall line kinda look. Based on CTP's disco, no doubt looks like something worth watching as the dynamics are going to be there.

truth pal.... starting to really think we get a repeat summer like the one that i referenced last week ( think Tim said 06'). Most of conus cooked, while we were saved by the NW flow here in the NE.

a little snippet to brighten the mood.....and remember....always trust the science (and math).....it never lies (just playin'....so relax all). Hello October.....I mean August. #iwannabelieve

does CTP count??? asking for a friend......

Then Pittsburgh is much nicer to them then round here...

Not sure I'm proud of it...., but yeah....sad times.

fair points Bubbles....can't ague w/ your statements at all. People who feel duped for the reversal, have every right to do so. The facts AND the data support their frustrations.

New World Order... feelings > facts. Did anyone hear or see all of the Biden/others posts regarding getting the vaccine and you wont need a mask? I did.....and he was pretty adamant in his stance when he said it....now a few months later and they realize how much power they can levy on us....and whalla. I'm not even sure if you can google them, because your search engines are now being censored..... again, if you think I'm wrong....I feel for you. Just some things to chew on while we wait for other storms to brew....

Its the new norm. Sad but true. We've all seen some fiesty debates here and other places, but now those with keyboard power can control the conversation....and as i watched Johns Hopkins's Dr Makary (and others) questioning the CDC and some of its inconsistencies....I hope the keyboard cops think about it before they hit the delete/ban buttons. Like it or not, there are many varying opinions about why the change in mask usage is being forced upon us. If you think politics isn't part of it....well, I REALLY feel for you. If you dont see me for a while.....hello communism.

Its all good. The takeaway is that based on upper air pattern as depicted here in the northeast, is that we are not likely to get much in the way of prolonged heat. Transient heat/cold like what we've seen for most of the summer. We need to watch that SER and how far it backs west and how it could link up w/ the midwest pressure cooker and we'd get real hot n real sticky....other concern is that if we get flat w/e trough around here, as it could tug lobes of heat east and we'd be hot n dry (lower humidity but still hot). As we all know, the swings of the GFS Op in long range can be rather drastic, so noone really knows what 10 days will look like but the look right now sure is nice for many here in the NE.

BINGO!! I'll take the next 7-10 and worry about the rest later. And when that time comes, we need to see the ridging showin up with more continuity before I get too worried about it. Some were worried about it last week, and as you suggest, its being delayed/denied. Frankly I could take 4-6 weeks of what is being modelled and then say hello Autumn as Sept.1 is typically my crawl outta my old cave date.

Upper air pattern as depicted by the GFS doesnt inspire a ton of confidence out in la la land, but from 8/6 and beyond it does try to back in to the west and become a feature to contend with.