pasnownut

So........am I eatin crow tomorrow or not?? Need to plan ahead......

actually I post what I really think will happen...just with a positive spin on it #realisttothecore

Hrr goes to 18hrs, and many models have light snow well into tomorrow morning. While best accums may be over for some, there is more snow to come. Consider it mood flakes. BTW, your concern was my concern from days ago when N and W were showing big totals, greater than the LSV. This storm has a progressive look to it (thinking trough axis)t, and not a diggy one (that is what you needed for the coastal numbers to verify. Its more of a wave to weak coastal (and that's not bad at all)....but is just not good for everyone. I think conshohocken folks approve of this event by a 14" margin. It seems like a general 4-8 is reasonable (NW to SE gradient), so I'm not complaining a bit...even as i hear pingers mixing in w/ my 4". If I can eek 2 more inches out through tomorrow morning....thats fantastic.

If one looks at 12z NAM, you can see a warm layer "trapped" and thats why the sleet is likely happening. Good news is that as coastal takes shape, that layer quickly gets scoured out and column cools, so IMO sleet may be around but I think by afternoon, its back to a snow event (this is based of NAM which does pretty well wrt temp profiles).

mod snow here in Etown.

verbatim its a lot of back n forth w/ ridging and troughing in the east as lobes rotate around the conus. No torch, and IMO it'll just be timing things right to get more bonus snow, because after today, I'm calling winter a big success for me (basing off of what we thought we'd have back in early Dec. Feels like winter. I'm happy.

lols....he got me for sure.

and as we enjoy the snow....go look at 6z GooFuS loop. It thinks winter is not over after this event, w/ 2 next week. Do I believe...dunno, but I'll just say I like what it shows.

what the hell is this??? Joke right??

You definitely are the one we need to listen to as you'll ping first in forum. As long as you are reporting s of some variety....I'm happy.

Just did. Yeah thats a forum crowd pleaser...verbatim. Nice tick N w/ best accums. Grab it in run.....

that second max is achieved in WAA side of event. Just remember how well that did the other week.....just sayin. I'd shave 2" off that n be giddy if I lived under it.

Gotta say verbatim coastal looks to be tucked a bit more than GFS's depiction. Not bad....not bad. Not sure how well N and W crew will do, but it wasnt hard to look at.

Looks to be following the cutback on NW side of the storm though. Purple ticklin the Mason Dixon line at 23

correct.

6-10” is a nice storm but mixing aside, this has been modeled for the SE 1/2 of pa since yesterday. My bud said last night “hey the cabin is in for 6-8”. I told him no way that happens and we’ll b lucky to get 3-4 in Tioga. I stand by that. Still think 4-8 is reasonable nw to se. nothing wrong with that at all. furthermore 10” in what’s been looking like a 12-18 hr event is nothing to complain about. If we lose coastal it’s a 12 hrish event. That said 4-8 ” is reasonable IMO.

4-8 has been my thoughts since I bought in and got chips late yesterday. Will likely tick north a pinch and that’s where it’ll ride IMO. trough axis and progressive theme was always supportive of WAA event but notsomuch of a bombing coastal.

hope its a great day Flathead....

Yeah....Im not gonna touch that one either....Im sittin this one out. LOL

sauss, you were right. -- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. -- 000 FXUS61 KCTP 171454 AFDCTP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service State College PA 954 AM EST Wed Feb 17 2021 .SYNOPSIS... Fair and cold today with increasing clouds into tonight. A winter storm will bring widespread accumulating snow Thursday through Thursday night with 6 inches or more possible over the southeast half of the area. Leftover snow showers Friday will fade into the weekend with below normal temperatures. A fast moving system may bring another round of snow Sunday night into Monday. Behind this early week system, the pattern through the end of February looks less stormy with a temperature outlook that tilts the odds toward near to above average readings. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... -- Changed Discussion -- A cold morning with a good deal of welcome sunshine in many areas. Surface high building into the Keystone State ensures fair and cold conditions today. Forecast highs in the low 20s over the Alleghenies to around 30 degrees in the lower Susq. Valley will be a solid 10 to 15 degrees below normal with a 24hr MaxT change of similar magnitude. Warm advection aloft ahead of deepening mid/upper trough over the Plains should result in increasing clouds this evening into tonight. -- End Changed Discussion -- &&

and in summary for nooners sans Euro, it seems like they tightened up the snow cone on norther and souther extents as well as a little drier overal. Were all still in the cone, so ride it....ride it.

CMC was taint free for us, and has Chesco adn pts east taintin. As we get closer and BY forecasts start to become increasingly more important...... a true must pull for the model that shows him/her what they want to see, and I approve of the CMC. Overall it was a step back from 0z in qpf, but still has me white not wet.

Or.....DT has broken nose....just sayin. Boy he can be arrogant as all hell.

You are also in catbird seat pal...

smart minds pal.....smart minds