HoarfrostHubb

KTOL looks good on the GFS

Maybe you can get a Norlun to save your family

Latest BOX AFD about Friday Friday through Sunday... We look to remain dry through about 00Z Friday, but ensemble and deterministic guidance is gaining clarity in a coastal low-Miller B type system developing off the New Jersey coast late Thursday; moving northward into our area for Friday and the early part of Saturday. There has been a lot of buzz regarding the uncertainty in the forecast for this event, but of the 50 member ECWMF ensemble suite, only ONE member presents a solution with the low tracking across the "blockbuster noreaster" benchmark southeast of Nantucket. There is actually considerable agreement, and run to run consistency, that this low will track near the NJ coast, over Long Island, and up the CT River Valley; indicative of a rain event except across the high terrain of NW MA and western CT. Of course, with this forecast being several days out, shifts are expected in the forecast, but this track is supported by several synoptic conditions including the surface high pressure being located to far north and east, and mid level ridging in the Wednesday-Thursday timeframe ahead of the low. There will be a considerable amount of moisture associated with this system, with over 1" of QPF forecast for the 24 hour period 00Z Fri to 00 Sat. While we expect mostly rain across the coastal plain, localities that are able to tap into enough cold air to see snow may see plowable amounts, with both GEFS and ECWMF ensemble probabilities on the board for 3-6"+ of snow across the Berkshires. At this time, it appears the most considerable snow accumulations will be across northern New England, which is good news for winter sports enthusiasts!

Euro gives Berkshire East area 24" Not bad

3.0” final here. Overperformer

About 2.25” of baking powder here. Not a bad little event

Drove back from Bristol RI. Normal 1.5 hour ride took 2.5. Roads were pretty bad for only 1-2”

Scooter will be very very angry

Dim sun in Bristol RI

Temps at 850 still a bit warm for my liking

Quite the cutoff in SNH There will be some toasters if that happened

Is it December 20 already?

That fronto banding in S VT is sweet

Mt Snow with 3 feet?

Okemo gets 18-24"...lol

Still a bit further east than the 06z

S VT and SNH get croaked. Close to an isothermal bomb in my hood

GFS looks a little better than the previous run... Still probably a mostly rain event for SNE on this model

I’m not sticking a fork in the Friday system for another 24 hours or so.

Maybe unpin this banter and pin the winter one?

Yay! We can get more raining in ASH reports! (welcome back)

You might want to consider a new hobby…

BOX AFD sums it up well Thursday and Beyond... The main focus for the long term remains the potential for an impactful coastal storm sometime Thursday to Saturday. A bit of a windshield wiper effect has taken hold of the end of the long term forecast as deterministic guidance is having difficulty resolving the complex pattern that develops across the CONUS next week. As more data is incorporated into the models as the weather system tracks across the west, a better picture should develop over the coming days. Even so, some run to run consistency has begun to develop, and ensemble surface lows have begun to cluster off of the mid-Atlantic sometime in the late Thursday to early Friday timeframe. While there is significant uncertainty in P-Type at this time, confidence is growing that some sort of precipitation will fall across our CWA late week/early next weekend as the low tracks near to or over our region. NBM PoPs again range in the likely category, and unlike the last few evenings, we elected to keep PoPs at likely given growing confidence in the existence of the event. Trends will need to be carefully analyzed to evaluate the potential impacts and geographic range of accumulating snow.

Hopefully this turns into one of those “little critters that bite” that Tip(originally Bosart) writes about now and then Expecting 1-2” here. 3-4” for most of CT. Hopefully CTBlizz goes to pound town

We pray.