snowman21

SW New England is a lot more urban and warmer than SE New England. This part of New England has a nice view of the Manhattan skyline and bridges spanning the East River.

AC on here with temps still in the mid-60s, dews in the 50s, light SE wind right now.

BDL is +5.8 through today, and if Ryan's forecast holds would be +6.6 through the middle of the month. Like I said, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country. Maybe if we were living in a place like MSP, DSM, TOP, or RAP it would be relatively unimpressive.

Ryan's forecast is a +8 over his 10 day period. Maybe it gets tempered a bit, but still, that's a pretty solid furnace for this part of the country.

But are those all fake cold places? It's almost universal across the board that the average first frost date has moved at least a few days to a week later which lends credence to the notion that the fall growing season is extending by approximately 1/2 day per year.

DIT is not entirely wrong, there are a few CT stations that have had their average first frost date slip from September to October between the 1971-00 and 1981-10 normals. Station 1971-00 1981-10 --------------------------------------------- BDR Oct 18 Oct 21 Burlington Sep 28 Oct 3 Danbury Sep 26 Oct 4 Falls Village Sep 16 Sep 23 Groton Oct 8 Oct 17 BDL Sep 30 Oct 4 Mansfield Hollow Lake Sep 20 Sep 24 Norfolk Sep 22 Sep 29 Norwich Public Utility Plant Sep 29 Oct 4 Shepaug Dam Sep 28 Sep 26 Stamford Oct 1 Oct 6 Storrs Oct 2 Oct 6 West Thompson Lake Sep 19 Sep 26

I misread your post and thought you were talking about near normal for the period shown in that forecast grid.

Maybe I'm reading that wrong, but it says the climo avg is 59/40, and that looks like a solid +15 avg on the lows and +7 on the highs which would put the next seven days at around a +11 wouldn't it?

You forgot the negative sign.

And despite that early cold last winter was still an above normal one. That's basically the point that as cold as we perceive it to be at times, it still generally works out to be just average. Meanwhile we rip off days of +11 and +13 dailies and hang +4 monthlies like it's our job.

Even with today's extreme cold, BDL still couldn't pull off a double digit departure below normal. The last one was early June, so BDL has a shot to make it four months without one.

57 for the low this morning. Too many clouds.

I thought the board might have been disbanded.

Don't think so. I just ran the 10-day against BDL's normals and it comes out to +2.95 with only one day, Sunday, coming in with a negative departure at -0.5 degree. I dunno maybe Ryan is out to lunch on this one and will be way off, but it looks like a solidly above normal forecast for the next week plus to me. Any time you hang a double digit departure on the low temp you're basically screwed and we have a few of those nights in the forecast where it doesn't get much below 60. By this Saturday most of Connecticut's 27 long term climate stations will have normal lows in the 40s, obviously away from the coast and outside the cities, but it shows you the rapid progression we're supposed to be making by this time of year when normals are dropping 1 degree/3 days.

BDL does have an outside shot at setting a record for warmest monthly low for September. So far BDL has only been down to 51 this month. The record is 47 in September 1934. I say it's an outside shot because there can be that sneaky radiating night very late in the month when nights are longer than the days.

DIT rejoices!

Ryan's 10 day didn't look so cool to me, at least not for late September. The coolest day was the 68/51 for Sunday which is maybe a couple of degrees below normal. The rest of the forecast looked like generally low 70s by day, 55-60 by night. Normals next week are MU60s/M40s NW hills, 70/48 inland, and L70s/L50s coast.

Oh wow I assume that contractor is now out of business?

The averages are set once every decade and cover the most recent 30 year period, so no they aren't going up or down year over year.

Average first freeze there is 9/9, so right on time. Don't see a hard freeze (28 or lower) coming tonight though as the probability is <10% of it happening this early in the season with the average date being 9/25.

Low of 65 here Another 30 degrees and we'll have our first frost.

I thought houses caught on fire when hit by lightning?

Unfortunately you do.

When does the cooler and dry weather get here or is that not happening anymore? 24 hours after FROPA and still dews in the 60s. Today's highs: BOS 75, BDL 72, PVD 73, and ORH 70. This is going to be a 36 hour dew down at best.

Sorry 'bout that. Was gonna just list the first orders, but didn't want to leave out anyone's favorite weenie radiating spot.