snowman21

Very light snow beginning here.

Very light snow here now - tiny flakes that are hard to see.

Models kind of do this through MOS. It's not machine-learning, but they can account for their own biases in the output. If you're looking for something that knows that NAM is always too NW with low center placement in winter, well that's basically what the humans are for, and there's a published catalog of known model biases on one of the national center sites.

Poor Philly on that snow map. From 12+ to zero.

Some of those higher end numbers are silly because that's the only number people will remember, and for a storm that's gonna be truckin', it's gonna be tough to put down widespread totals much over a foot I think. A foot is still a lot of snow. For our state, I would probably say 6-10 or 8-12 and mention localized amounts 4 inches higher than the top number (i.e. 14 or 16).

Connecticut is a two hour drive from Philly. You don't have to go all the way to northern New England to get in on the action.

Virtually everyone is saying rain/snow coast right now. OKX seems in line with that thinking at this time range. You're splitting hairs on a D6 forecast that they may have just kept the default grids without wasting any time tweaking something that's going to change a bunch of times anyway.

I believe it. Stronger winds than Isaias for about 5 minutes.

S45G60 at Norwalk Harbor

I think so. They should just get it over with and move to Florida. CoC, outdoor dining, and t-shirts year round!

Yeah last year at this time was cold. 30s for highs even in CT. Nice little 40 degree difference from a year ago. Normals at MVL are 43-46/26-28 during that period. The chart would yield 4 warm days, 3 cool ones with a +1 departure from the week beginning Thursday.

Those are still above normal temps for MVL even if you take it from Thursday onwards.

We'll never forget Derek Lowe's no-hitter against the Rays.

But the fact of the matter is you still have to go through the application process. The only thing that has changed this year is some states mailed applications to every registered voter and/or made Covid-19 a valid reason to request an absentee ballot in states that require an excuse (Connecticut is one such state). There's no issue with mail ballots or voter fraud in general. This has been studied to death. You will consume more parts per million of cockroach in your food today than there are fraudulent ballots being cast.

You're talking about universal mail in ballots where they send every registered voter a ballot automatically. There are only a handful of states, mainly out west where population is sparse, that have the ability to conduct their elections entirely by mail ballot. Absentee ballots, which you must request, are mailed in as well. They are both mail ballots in that they need to be mailed back. 80% of states have a mail (absentee) ballot system that works the same way as Florida's which Trump promoted as a safe and secure way to vote as he did. The insecurity of mail ballots is a fiction ginned up for this election. The states that have been doing universal mail ballots have done so with no problem for decades, and the rest of the states have done it the absentee way since the Civil War.

Why would you even bother? Seems like his lawyers either don't get paid or end up in jail.

There is only one real party - the republican party. Then there's this other group of disorganized feckless politicians who call themselves democrats who literally don't know what day of the week it is much less formulate coherent political strategy. Because like pandemic response, we have 50 different governments, all doing their own thing. If we had one uniform system across the country, like every other country in the world, this wouldn't be such a mess every other November.

I must be in the only part of Connecticut still raining. Booooo.

Was thinking about that yesterday when it became apparent this was a real possibility for a lot of people, even on the shoreline.

It's not real until Ryan throws up the first alert icon on his extended forecast.

What about 2006-07 and 2007-08?

Are there places that are still closed? Everything in Connecticut seems like it has been open for months now. Where is it that people can't go? I know bars are the one thing that we're keeping closed until there's a vaccine, but those places started dying out when swipe right became a thing.

Nice cat

Climate sites about +2 for the month right now. After this weekend though will likely be normal or slightly below. Just being normal that late into September is a feat unto itself.

Down to 50 here. Doesn't look like we'll be able to sneak into the 40s this time around, but this weekend should take care of that.