CentralNC

1 hour ago, snowbird1230 said:

Am I so old that I'm the only one on here remembers Christmas 1983?

-25 degrees throughout WNC

I'm with ya.  Remember it well.

16 minutes ago, griteater said:

^ Aggressive warm nose  - put that on the list of wording you never want to hear

Still I have seen that kind of wording before and will sit there and ride 31/32 at my location for a couple more hours than they anticipate.  

10 minutes ago, weatherlover said:

Do you guys think there will be enough cold air around at the onset for everyone to see a little sleet?

"everyone" is a big group but I would think anyone north and west of I-85 will see at least a little sleet.  But this is predominately a ZR scenario outside of the mtns.

1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

So a significant ice storm is still plausible for northern NC , Southern va... further north , Major Snowstorm

I think we end up with high-end nuisance event for us here in the Triad.  My location usually does pretty well with these....depending on the dry slot.

Just now, griteater said:

 

@Isopycnic gets the award for first post on the storm (on the mid to long term discussion thread), where the GFS nailed it from 10 days out  

I think EURO had it on the 13th if I recall didn't it?  

 

2 hours ago, WesternNC_wxm said:

Cullowhee NC ending with a solid 0". Typical around here in our microclimate, snowed all day yesterday but just a little too warm for accum. Last good storm I remember here was something around 8"-10" two years ago!! 

I believe this is the one you reference young Skywalker

https://projects.ncsu.edu/atmos_collaboration/nwsfo/storage/cases/maps/accum.20171209.png

Solid light snow here in Lewisville.

A very few flakes here in Lewisville.

1 minute ago, Wow said:

Not a speck of anything here yet

Man, you are usually my western outpost that gives me some hope.  Bummer!

4 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

I'm in TX getting ready to hop a flight back to GSO and where I was reporting steady rain for the last 36 hours straight, I can tell you the wind is RIPPING on the back side of this storm.  Not looking forward to this flight as this thing is really winding up.  

Dont rush, we are not going to get much in the triad.

Robert just posted on FB what I already suspected.  Downslope screw zone here.

5 minutes ago, CaryWx said:

Definitely a drought zone in west-central NC on many of those panels

Yeah i'm not really feeling it here in the western piedmont.  Check out DT's FB first call.  I think he has way to much in western piedmont and foothills of NC.

Blacksburg REALLY unimpressed

NCZ020-201100-
Yadkin-
Including the city of Yadkinville
401 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.TONIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Cooler with lows in the mid 30s. Light
and variable winds.
.THURSDAY...Rain, cooler. Near steady temperature in the mid 30s.
Light and variable winds, becoming northeast around 10 mph in the
afternoon. Chance of rain 90 percent.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow and rain in
the evening, then partly cloudy after midnight. Cooler with lows
in the lower 20s. Light and variable winds, becoming north around
10 mph after midnight. Chance of precipitation 50 percent.

12 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Sleet reported in Garner as well.

Somebody might as well starts the OBS thread since the party not too far away.

I'm sticking with my 1-2 sloppy inches here in the western piedmont until I see evidence to suggest otherwise.

18z NAM has to be viewed as an outlier at this point but bears watching!

1 hour ago, Met1985 said:

Call me crazy but I think we see a sizable shift in the pattern come the first of March. 

Isn't crazy a precondition to be on this board in the first place..?

Well that was fun.  Light rain from high above downtown W-S

One things for sure.  I am done reading "Winter Outlooks" from anyone whether it's a Met or not.  It's such a crapshoot and personally don't want to get my hopes up again.

1 hour ago, tarheelwx said:

 

Not sure I'm buying #1.

TW

I lived through it.  It's real.   Had a winter storm warning in Jan 1992 that ended up being a virga storm.  But yeah, it was a rough period.

Quote

Wife and I headed to WV this weekend for my bday.  Might see a few flakes.

59 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

12z EURO with a 1061mb power bomb...

 

 

That would be a good dump of cold air if it happens.

12 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yep, temps and freezing rain coverage this morning matched a lot of the model output (..for our area).    

 

So here's the next test for CAD over-performance (...lets see what it does on Thursday):

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 325 PM Tuesday... The CAD will slowly erode on Thursday. But, residual affects will last much of the day with a light steering flow. Areas of fog, mist, and drizzle will continue through at least late morning. Highs generally upper 40s and 50s. Much of the guidance still show 70+, but this seems way over done unless it clears out much more quickly and abruptly than currently expected. So, we can go with some 60s for a compromise.

Usually here in the triad I dont know if you call it over-performance but it is usually under-forecasted.   This one really fooled me.  Any time the HP is not locked in place our CAD just fades away at showtime and this was the case here in the piedmont.  When I saw E winds last night instead of NE I pretty much knew it was game/set/match.  Never even made it to freezing here but we got a slight slushy covering last evening due to about 2 hours of wet snow/sleet mix.

Just now, FallsLake said:

If anybody gets anything substantial it would be your area and northward. Problem is we need colder temps to make a big ice storm. 30/31/32 doesn't do it. We need temps down into the 20s. But who knows, these setups have over performed (with cold) in the past.  

You need 20s to get significant travel issues but not tree damage or power outages.  During the January storm here, I think lowest northern part of Forsyth got was 31 degrees but we had HUGE amounts of trees down and power out for multiple days for thousands.

3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Yeah, as jjwxman said this will be a minor event. If we get some light glaze on the car tops it's a win. At least we had something to track. Been such a boring winter after the December storm. 

Agree on Wake county area.  Whole different story here in the triad I believe.