CentralNC

3 minutes ago, Brick Tamland said:

An inch or two in the triad?  Okay...

I guess they love playing catch-up.  They are right about the amount of uncertainty though.

2 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

Kind of reminds me of the Feb 2014 storm we got.  We got nailed with snow from the get go, had wonderful rates and quickly accumulated maybe 4-6”.  But the WAA turned the last few hours into a sleet fest. Really killed the totals we could’ve had here.  Good thing is having lots of snow then sleet didn’t cause the issues like sleet alone would or had it been freezing rain on top of everything.

But like most have said, the transition line almost always sets up around this area, especially with strong systems like this one as the WAA is rarely modeled correctly.  From past storms, the models seem to get a decent idea around 1-2 days out (especially the NAM) of the WAA and transition area but the subsequent runs seem to slowly erode away the WAA and increase QPF and give back hope of big totals.  Only to be smashed once the storms over.  By the time we get close enough to the HRRR etc...being used and they start showing the WAA, ppl then want to assume those models aren’t correct based on the prior global runs not showing it  

I would not disregard any model(s) that start to push that snow line west over the next cpl days, if it happens, as much as I want to bury my head and pretend I don’t see it on the models either. 

I know the info above isn’t very technical in nature, just experience from seeing these storms and models year after year. 

That deform band with that storm was the heaviest snow I have seen in 28 years at my current location.

1 minute ago, griteater said:

Just think, we have basically 48 hours of modeling left....that's an eternity for how things can change.  We have a system that is going to bring a lot of warmth and juice out of the gulf into an airmass that is marginal aloft overall.  Outside of the central and northern mountains, northern foothills, into SW VA, confidence should be tempered IMO for a big event.  I post the snow maps like others, but I feel a little slimy doing it because heavy support for cold temperatures isn't there....and those maps are much heavier with snow than they should be along the edges.  Wonder if anyone has the Eurowx site access...seems like they used to have much more tempered snow maps, etc.

Thank you voice of reason...

3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tim Buckley:  

 

At least Tim will hype when it's time to hype...unlike Lanie Pope...

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

We’re talking about totals around a lot of western NC that hasn’t been seen in many places since the 93 blizzard. 

Yes, obviously going to be a huge storm but everyone has to keep in mind there WILL be some aspect of the storm not modeled correctly. Cold air, timing, track, phase.   Something will throw curveballs.  I think we all have learned to cast a weary eye at the clowns.  Not trying to damper but we have seen it so often.

6 minutes ago, beanskip said:

I think it would be very, very, very dangerous to assume the Canadian is wrong here. Historically there have definitely been winter storms it has sniffed out accurately before even King Euro. Not saying it's right, saying it possible it's right. 

1000% agree.  If this was Friday I might throw it out but still too far out to throw any solutions out.

Just now, AsheCounty48 said:

Canadian with the worst run in days, high snow amounts move north to West Virginia.

Although an outlier at this point, don't think we can totally dismiss it.

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

Best GFS run in a while for Central NC in a while. Showed lower dps, slightly stronger CAD 

Could we be dealing with GFS cold bias?

Just now, CaryWx said:

Thanks Falls and Queencity.   

CantralNC, After January 2017 I'm all conditioned for this one to have the sharp cutoff west of my location 

Well it's a distinct possibility.  I would worry a lot about IP/ZR however.   Back end thump may be nice though.

1 minute ago, burgertime said:

I could totally believe that. That looks more realistic than some of these insane total GFS/Euro were popping out. Someone is going to get mixing out of this so if you're on that 1-2 line like above..heartbreak!

And that storm was tremendously underforecasted by the NWS.   I know Bastardi gets ripped on here a lot but he was on local radio at the time and really stepped out calling for 6-10 inches and was the ONLY one doing so but as you can see from the graphic the sharp cutoff was really close.  Gonna be some hearts breaking on this one.   Good thing we have the sanitarium!

Just now, mackerel_sky said:

The high on the NAM is now sub 1040, a slight weakening and not good if you were hanging your hat on the NAM

Sub 1040 will still get the job done up my way.

18 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

12Z FV3 hammers most of Virginia all the way up into DC and MD... Much like 6Z 

Bastardi has been saying that for days...even though he does that on every storm.  I  think he's right this time.

Just now, sarcean said:

I feel relatively confident in Greensboro that there will be enough cold and liquid to make something significant happen

You should.  Most likely a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario for us in the western piedmont.

Just now, ryan1234 said:

It baffles me that people are already jumping off the cliff and are able to seriously call this storm a bust when we are still 4.days.out. 

Happens every time.

1 minute ago, Queencitywx said:

I really doubt this storm ends up as 100% snow for anyone except the mountains, including the foothills. The ratio of sleet to snow obviously grows as you push further east but the question is how much sleet. I do feel pretty confident right now that it's either going to be sleet or snow at this juncture IMBY. 

Agree 100%

2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

As currently modeled, this storm does look like that 2017 storm. Miller A with a sharp cut off. I'm not sold that this will play out the same. I'm thinking CAD is going to be depicted stronger in the coming days and we end up with something more like the 2002 storm (snow to the west and a big ice storm on the east edge).

Now where that east edge sets up is anybody's guess.  

Setup reminds me a little of Dec 2009

http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20091218/

1 minute ago, Waiting on snow said:

By this time tomorrow we close in on 100 hrs of the event. One would think the ensembles and the operationals will begin some agreement. Will the ensembles go north? Or will the ops come back south? I know what my money is on

I am thinking North.

Just now, sarcean said:

Hoping it stays cold enough here in Greensboro / the Triad about 30 miles from the VA border for a mostly snow event

Prepare for a snow-to-sleet-to-snow scenario in the Piedmont

Hate to temper enthusiasm but it's still 6 days away and much will change.  Hard not to get excited though...

I think Dec 8-9 deserves it's own thread.

4 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Dont think that was it Widre because we were in the 40's and 50's leading up to that at KGSO.  No HP in place pre-storm.  This event as modeled has the HP in place starting on Friday.  I agree with Buddy, I think this has to end up a slider if that banana HP is parked and cant understand why the GFS wants to run these systems into a brick wall.

Maybe Dec 2002?

1 minute ago, kvegas-wx said:

Back edge coming into SC on radar thankfully.  Probably another half inch or so to go here in the Triad.  Should easily put GSO into the #2 wettest year all time criteria.  I can honestly say I have gotten almost nothing done outside this year.

Seems like wind is increasing all morning and we have power outages here in Kernersville.  Dont need anymore of that nonsense.

Man o man if these two storms had come in mid-January it would be Jan 1987 revisted.

3 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Cuz there isn't really a significant ice storm headed for the mtns and foothills.  Very narrow band of winners with this one.  But rapid melting and liquid refreshments for most.

I know but there is a pretty good amt of real estate covered in warnings or WWA.  Just figured there would be more interest on here.  So be it.

Man, a significant ice storm headed for the mtns and foothills and it's dead on here.  What's up?

1 minute ago, FallsLake said:

I just read RAH's write-up from last night:

This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.

Yet they did not trigger WWA or ZR advisory for NW Piedmont.  I bet that changes overnight or with afternoon products.