Jump to content

CentralNC

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    532

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Posts posted by CentralNC

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    RAH going 2-4 for Forsyth which sounds pretty safe at this distance 

    NCZ021-080900-
Forsyth-
Including the city of Winston-Salem
317 PM EST Thu Jan 7 2021

...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM FRIDAY TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY...

.TONIGHT...Snow with a chance of rain after midnight. Snow
accumulation around an inch. Lows in the lower 30s. Northeast
winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY...Snow. Total snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Cooler.
Near steady temperature in the mid 30s. Northeast winds 5 to
10 mph with gusts up to 20 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Cloudy with snow with a chance of rain in the
evening, then partly cloudy with a chance of snow after midnight.
Little or no additional snow accumulation. Cold with lows in the
upper 20s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of precipitation
90 percent.
.SATURDAY...Mostly sunny. Not as cool with highs in the mid 40s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...Clear, cold with lows in the mid 20s. Northwest
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly clear. Highs in the upper 40s.
Lows in the mid 20s.
.MONDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the mid 40s.
.MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent
chance of rain showers. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the mid
40s.
.TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the upper
20s. Highs in the upper 40s.

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    3 minutes ago, beanskip said:

    Greetings to my SE friends -- I'll be rooting hard down here in the panhandle for every one to hit the jackpot.

    I must say, though, I would exercise caution on this one for a couple of reasons:

    1) this ULL is not very strong and thus will not necessarily drive high QPF rates which means ...

    2) Boundary layer issues will be real -- the latest Euro run, for example, never gets it below 36 in my old stomping grounds of Shelby -- even during the highest times of precip. That's no bueno. 

    If I were in the mountains/northern foothills of western N.C., I'd feel good about this and with ULLs you just never really know what's going to happen in more marginal areas. But it looks very very borderline for the I-85 corridor. 

    That won't stop me for wishing for a Hail Mary though!

    Good luck!

    Thanks man!  We are living on the edge as usual!

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

    I think that DT is generally pretty smart and a good forecaster. I may be biased, I think that my first "rodeo" following these things on models and online and in social media was the Boxing Day 2010 storm, where he was issuing those wild probability maps. I still get an adrenaline rush when I see that *ALEET* on my Facebook feed! That being said I do think he inflates numbers a little to get some more social media exposure. Take 30% off his forecast and I think you have a solid call. 

    Overall, I think the dye has been cast; There's going to be a front-end push of precip that could start as snow, and if it's heavy/quick enough it may surprise some folks/forecasters. It wouldn't be the first time I've seen that front-end overperform. Now when I say overperform, I mean "maybe an inch before flipping over", not "all snow event that will break forecasts". After a quick dry spell, the comma head will come in Friday night and drag through the northern 2/3s of the state and drop a half inch to an inch of accumulation, maybe a little more if you're lucky and you're sitting in a nice band. It will hopefully be enough to make things look pretty; great weather for sipping scotch. The place to be, I would say, is likely the NC/VA border, specifically near the mountains where elevation will help BL temps. If I were chasing, I would probably find a nice cabin in Fancy Gap. 

    Good post.  In fairness to DT, who I like to criticize, his first guess maps are usually inflated like you said but he does a good job of realizing his mistakes and makes major changes to later calls.  I've been dinged too many times by his early calls in my area that are way too high.  I've learned....

    • Like 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, CaryWx said:

    Kind of surprised at the limited number of watch/warning/advisory counties in NC, SC & GA with this coming system.  Thought it would be a bit more expansive

    Still a lot up in the air.  They will expand as necessary this evening or even tomorrow morning.

    • Like 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, eyewall said:

    I have been MIA being too busy to get on here. My call at this point is:

    Western Mountains of NC to Pilot Mountain/Hanging Rock,  and adjacent VA: 3-6 (locally 8) inches

    Triad to Danviile VA: 1-3 (locally 4) inches

    RDU: Dusting to an inch

    South and east of there: token flakes at the end

    That looks very reasonable.

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    50 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

    RAH Is always seems to be one of the most conservative offices I've encountered. I think their current call Is a perfectly plausible outcome, but more seems likely. They're currently calling for more rain than snow, at least in their hourly, which is a bit strange.

     

    Don't blame them for being conservative.  Marginal temps mean accumulations will be hard to come by.  Screw zone and bust potential pretty big on this one as it is with most of these ULLs.

    • Like 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    6 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    After that last NAM run somebody will be posting the ground temp maps in 3..2..1..:P

    Liking my chances either in the Triad or in Stuart, VA.  But I've been waiting to capture some snow drone footage and also wanting to film around Lover's Leap over towards Hillsville.  This could be the best of both worlds so I may be mobile come Friday morning.  

    We look forward to your updates!

    • Like 1

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    23 minutes ago, HKY_WX said:

    Warm inversion in the Lee sucks lol. Remember that many times in hky. Ral looks like a classic front end dusting to sleer/rain with a backend inch or two. These 10:1 maps are worthless if you live below 3000ft. I'd stick to the ferrier method for a system like this. This will be purely rate driven outside of the mountains and VA/NC border.

    Brandon - what do you think about the NW piedmont triad area?

    January 8th-9th threat

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    41 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

    Only one real outlier (of 13.3”) in the SREF plumes for GSO.  Throw that one out and it’s a mean of 3.3”.  I expect no more than half of that and even that could be irrational exuberance.

    Cut them at least in half when dealing with marginal temps.

×
×
  • Create New...