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CentralNC

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    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Raleigh definitely buying the warm nose.  Hard to deny it happening.

      

    .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 PM Thursday...

...Potentially Hazardous Wintry Precipitation Remains on Track for
the End of the Weekend...

Surface high pressure will build from the just north of the Great
Lakes Region on Saturday towards New England Saturday night. This
cold high will create cloudy and cold conditions across the region
as a CAD sets up, with highs only in the mid-30s north to mid 40s
south.

The upper-level low currently moving across the PAC NW will dig
southeast towards the Deep South by Sunday morning, and lift
northeast across the Appalachians through early Monday.
Additionally, surface low pressure will strengthen across the Deep
South on Saturday, then move northeast across the Blue Ridge Sunday,
while strengthening another low that develops near the eastern half
of NC in a "Miller B" scenario. A few showers may develop across the
western Piedmont Saturday evening, then widespread precipitation
will spread across the region Saturday night through early Sunday
night. Models are coming into better agreement with the details, and
confidence is increasing that this will be less of a snow event and
more of a freezing rain/rain event. All areas will be below zero
when precipitation begins to fall Saturday night, and most areas
north of the Sandhills and southern Piedmont will likely see snow
where it develops, while southern areas have a rain/snow mix. Then
by early Sunday morning, a warm nose develops as the the possibility
of freezing rain/sleet spreads north to just south of the Triangle
by noon. By late Sunday afternoon, areas away from the Triad will
likely have rain, while freezing rain becomes the dominant
precipitation type across the northwest. This warm nose will lower
snowfall amounts across most areas, even the Triad. Accumulating ice
will become the greater hazard in the afternoon, and with wind gusts
around 25 mph, could easily break weak icy tree branches. A dry slot
will likely cut off moisture and end precipitation quickly late
Sunday evening into early Sunday night. A Winter Storm Watch may be
issued for portions of central NC either tonight or Friday morning.
Highs Sunday will range from near 30 far NW to near 50 far SE.

Surface high pressure then builds across the SE for early to mid
next week, with highs rising to the mid 40s to mid 50s by Wednesday.
The next chance of precipitation will be late Wednesday into
Thursday as a surface cold front pushes across the region and an
upper-level shortwave moves in from the east.

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, ILMRoss said:

    I just flipped through 10m wind speeds through all of the globals and meso model at 78 and a few things jumped out: 

    - every mesoscale model kept the wedge pinned on the coast and had the low in south geogia-ish

    - every global (except the canadian) had eroded the wedge further inland and where the wedge had eroded is generally where the LP followed (with Euro obviously showing the most erosion of the wedge)

    take with this what you will.

     

    NAM for the win?

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, DC2Winston said:

    If it’s snow you’re rooting for, would you rather be in Triad or DC for this storm?

    My hunch is Triad based on elevation and particular storm track? 
     

     

    Hunch says Triad, but they can't both get clobbered.  See 1/22/1987 storm

    • Thanks 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    Just now, CentralNC said:

    Thanks for adding that.  Most of the "devestating" ice storm maps end up being mostly sleet.  Even 2002 had front end thump snow and then totally IP in my neck of the woods.

    But also want to add that **someone** will end up with severe ZR out of this it does appear.  Won't know until Sat. at the earliest.

    • Like 3

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:

    Want to mention something. This is my 11th winter on this board. I've seen so many catastrophic ice storm maps. I mean, so many. Every single storm has catastrophic ice storm maps. And yet our benchmark is still Dec. 2002. It seems that once the storm comes, the icy zone always seems to narrow considerably, with sleet or rain cutting into it, and wherever that zone ends up shift wildly. After all of this, point being: I do not put any stock on model ZR maps until maybe like 12 hours before the event. I do not want to seem like I'm downplaying the threat. Do I still stock up on ravioli I can eat straight from the can? Yes. But just be careful. I think ice maps are magnitudes more unreliable than snow maps. 

    Thanks for adding that.  Most of the "devestating" ice storm maps end up being mostly sleet.  Even 2002 had front end thump snow and then totally IP in my neck of the woods.

    • Like 1

    Jan 15-16 Winter Storm

    in Southeastern States

    Posted

    2 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

    LOL - wait until tomorrow and the Winston folks will be like "I'll take my hour of snow followed by a rapid change to IP".  Guess I can put the sled back now.  I feel like the jinx is already underway.

    I would normally agree with you but I have a pretty good feeling about this one.

    • Thanks 1
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