CentralNC

@msuwx  Care to weigh in on these trends?

1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

I had a feeling the SE ridge would make an appearance and it's really trying to stave off the arctic are next week. 

maybe it will help keep stuff from going OTS

Models playing with peoples minds.  Groundhog day AmericanWx style.  Yearly occurrence!

This winter blows.  I would just as soon have temps +15 and full sun instead of all these close calls.

7 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Agreed. Already some showing on the ensembles. One of these models going going to suck everyone back onto this pages in next few days. Been fun seeing the mid-long range thread “hot” most of the day. This winter is already 100% better than last winter 

Not where I sit but I'm willing to wait to see if Fab Feb comes through before passing judgement.

Just now, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Just saw some flurries in North Winston-Salem

there have been flurries off and on for the last hour in Lewisville.

19 minutes ago, BooneWX said:

That frame looks almost identical to Dec 2018. Pretty sure it featured a strong high over the Midwest. May be wrong though. 

Watch it miss us to the south...

WPC short range discussion - https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=qpfhsd

mentions faster onset

8 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Is it odd that we are 30 hours out from what could be a major ice storm as modeled for about a million people across the i40 corridor and RAH hasnt said a peep?  Did I miss it?  I saw the post where they were "underwhelmed", but still.  There are a lot of unexpecting folks that would need more time to prepare for power outages than just one day.

I suspect they do not trust the QPF forecasts on the models.  I have to say I am little suspect myself.  Sometimes these Miller B transfers do not bring the goods like they are supposed to here in the middle.

Aptly named thread!

21 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Isn’t Davie served by RAH? RAH almost always issues watched after GSP and Blacksburg.

Nope,  Davie is in GSP

So GSP gives Statesville/Mooresville a WSW but Davie county (right beside of me), nothing.  Interesting.  And I don't mean nothing falling, just not watches or any kind.  I know they will change that tomorrow, but kinda strange.

Just now, magpiemaniac said:

That’s a pretty bad ice storm for the Triad on 18z NAM and 3km.  

I'd cut those totals in half, but still somewhat formidable.

3 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

I think this is a minimal event outside the mountains and foothills.  Cold rain is better than ice/power outages.

For Raleigh area proper I would agree.  Not sure yet back here in the NW piedmont.   That's some pretty dry air hanging around here Sunday morning.  If precip comes in early enough I have seen it take several hours to go above freezing.

9 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

Have Triad tv mets even mentioned freezing rain as a possibility?  I’ve just seen them talk about rain mixed with a little snow.

I don't watch the mets on TV but the few I follow on Twitter have definitely mentioned it.  Tim Buckley, Van Denton to name a couple.

19 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Posters in the mid-atlantic forum.  We wont have any electricity to post about it anyway.

Maybe your farm won't...

5 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

The euro still likes the idea of snow for Monday for the 40/85 corridor from Greensboro to Durham. 

I would not count on that.  Backed snow on a miller B is a losing bet.

The CAD, even if in-situ,should be pretty significant in the NW NC Piedmont.

Flurries here in the western piedmont

8 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

He’s excellent at mid range pattern recognition. I’ve never even a big fan of his in the short range.

I get it and I agree on the mid range thing.  But he blames everyone else for hype and he's just as bad as anyone.  His short range maps he puts out are abysmal

27 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

DT is putting out a video this evening on the "possibility" of this storm...

Oh you mean the guy that had me in the 6-10 area for last Friday?  After barely getting a trace, I'd rather find something on Netflix.

Is this thing overperforming?  Radar looks pretty impressive but maybe lots of virga.  Georgia folks?

11 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

It’s disappointing, but the bust factor is mitigated by the fact that only modest to light snow amounts were predicted. If a foot of snow would have been predicted, this would be an epic fail.

I hear ya, but NWS and most (not all) TV mets had us at 2-4 and I can't even say I got a trace today.  That's a pretty big bust imo

Light snow in Lewisville again after a 6 hour break.  It's been a while since we have had a more disappointing storm here.  I should have known better with these marginal temps.

Currently 37 and rain. Could be worse.  Could be 33 and rain.