mississaugasnow

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

It's so hard to pin a percentage on it. Definitely not near peak but pretty much everywhere you look, you see some color, not like just the isolated few trees here and there. Maybe 20%? Last year was an early peak, and the year before was a late peak. A friend of mine who has a lot of trees, said his are 1.5 weeks ahead of normal.

 

Pics from Sept 23-26

Wow, definitely ahead of us. The only real change here is the yellows. Just outside the city though the change is happening fast. Algonquin is at peak and most areas outside Toronto (especially north and east) are 30-40% 

7 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

The color is well ahead of schedule so it will be interesting to see how much, if at all, the coming period of warmth will slow it.

Thats interesting, what would you say % of change is? Here it's only 10% and pretty much right on schedule. Peak looks to be mid-late October like normal 

10 hours ago, weatherbo said:

Warm and breezy yesterday, 83 for the high.  Warmest the point has the next 7 days is 80 on Thursday.  Don't mind at all escaping the heat wave.  

Comparing pics, looks as if leaves are running around 10 days ahead of last year.  Peak should be in 4 weeks if this holds.

Interesting you say that because Ive been driving around Muskoka-Algonquin area east of Georgian Bay and thought the leaves seemed a bit ahead of schedule. 

On 5/5/2023 at 6:39 PM, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Just beginning yes. The lakes on the MN/Canada border still have 20”+ of ice on them. 

Yep, looking at cams around fort Frances/ international falls and there’s ice. 
 

Leaf out for northern Ontario and central Ontario typically isn’t until mid May. Guessing the same for northern Minnesota 

17 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Anytime the dews get above 60 I’m miserable. Not fun at all to work outside in that crap. I’ll take 0 with a wind chill of -20 over summer heat everyday but I’m in the extreme minority. 

I enjoy working outside in that. This last 14 days plus has been garbage. 

21 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

While things look to improve overall, it also appears as though it will be a bumpy road for the beginning and middle 1/3rds of May (Especially the latter).

Probably should keep expectations in check.

I’m real confused recently on everyone saying much nicer weather coming. I guess that’s because a week plus of 40s and rain has lowered our expectations? 

7 hours ago, rainsucks said:

They're not giving any reasoning for this, though.

If I dig a bit more I could probably find it. Either way I think it’s a safe bet the eastern Great Lakes are in for a colder and wetter May. 

3 hours ago, rainsucks said:

What exactly are they basing this on?

However, the shift in the pattern will not have very much staying power.

During the final two weeks of May we expect to see a transition to a pattern that will resemble the first week of May with below-seasonal temperatures returning to Ontario and Quebec and above-seasonal temperatures across most of Western Canada, especially Alberta.

pretty much not anticipating an abrupt shift to summer this year 

1 hour ago, hardypalmguy said:

38.4 at 2:00 pm in May.  This has to rank in the top 3 worst May days ever.

Weather network (Canadian weather channel) going with below average temperatures for May. They anticipate a small break mid may and then this cold wet pattern comes back for 2nd half of May and into early June 

54 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

light at the end of the tunnel?

 

Ya another freight train of cold, damp weather 

punt may and wake me up in June haha 

9 hours ago, WestMichigan said:

Waiting for our Dayton area friend Spartman to come on and complain how it will never get warm in his back yard this summer.

Haha I’ll play his part. I won’t say the entire summer but the fact we came out of one of the cloudiest winters ever and it continues is a sign of concern. 
 

May is pretty much a write off. I’ll take below average and sunny but it’s below average and cloudy plus rain for the foreseeable future

1 hour ago, Spartman said:

The rest of the month is shot. Not one day above normal for the upcoming week.

Ya, not looking promising for the next 2-4 weeks. Which means we will go from 40s and 50s to 80s and 90s like we've become accustomed to 

29 minutes ago, Harry said:

 

They could be over compensating for the lake effect expected later tonight into Saturday night. May take a few days to melt off depending on how much falls. 

wow you guys already average in the low 50s now? We dont get that in Toronto until early April 

10 hours ago, hardypalmguy said:

Hoping it's all rain and they are left with their pants down on this one.  MKE is 38F.  Going to take a lot of dynamic cooling to get it to where this piles up.

34F and Snow currently reported. Judging from the Milwaukee webcams it's accumulating. Hope your enjoying it lol

38 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I expect DTX to go warning for their entire watch except Monroe. 

Interesting that EC and NWS have vastly different forecasts for Windsor-Detroit area. Windsor is heavy rain tomorrow with half an inch of rain or more changing to snow but only 2". No warning, just a special weather statement. The other side of the river is winter storm warning for 6-10"

5 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

2011-12 was the lowest snow season in my now 28 years of measuring snowfall. I finished with 25.5". It was certainly a terrible Winter but March was really the difference maker. Had it been even an average March the season would have blended in with just other subpar winters and not the stinker it is remembered for. While the final snowfall number is certainly what we all look at, a lot of other factors come in to play, like days with snow on the ground, how deep did the snow get at its deepest, what was the biggest storm, how cold, etc. I'm at 19.8" so far so technically I could still fall below 2011-12 but there really is a long way to go. Plus I've had a bigger storms and more days with snow on the ground than in 2011-12.

Ya, Toronto is already around 26" so even just a bit more will make it look like just a slightly bad winter in the record books. Im thinking Toronto has one more legit winter storm of 4-8" and a few more slop 1-3, 2-4" type events. I think Toronto ends up right around 36" on the season. About 4-6" below normal. 

27 minutes ago, Stevo6899 said:

6+ nov snows are pretty rare even tho we had one in the past 5 or so years. Always temp issues, warm ground, etc. And yea it can snow in March but it's been so long since we had a good march snowstorm so legit and most of our good snows happen in the 3 main months. 

ya, I've been looking at a lot of historical weather for Toronto and March and April the last decade have been very similar. 1-5" falls. They've become near identical in snowfall. But Toronto hasn't seen a snowstorm over 4" in the last decade after March 1st. March and April at least for Toronto has been pretty bad

1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

I totally understand as we always say, different strokes were different folks. Not sure if you're counting 2017-18 or not, but that was a good snowy winter. Since then it's been much more "average" overall but February 21 was definitely a good month to see deep snow and we did have an 11" snow storm. But again regarding beavis I would bet my last dollar that if you offered him a Winter with 80" of snow including 2 storms over a foot but constant thaws/torches leaving more bare ground than snow...or a Winter with 35" of snow, constant cold and no bare ground the entire Winter he would take the latter in a heartbeat.

It's been a pretty cold week but we are gonna warm up this week.  I got some tears while walking in the park yesterday due to the cold. But that's after being out for prolonged period. Just stepping in-and-out even the bitterest cold doesn't bother me at all.

Yep, snow cover for me. Thats why Im down to about 4ish weeks left of cheering for winter. After that unless it's an absolute monster 12" storm I want 40s-50s and spring haha. I know climo says enjoy 2-4" of wet snow followed by 38F and cloudy in mid March-early April but those just really annoy me haha. 

On 1/5/2023 at 4:19 PM, hardypalmguy said:

This is ideal winter.  Could be a bit warmer though.

when do you put your palms back out? My banana and windmill palm are inside but I was able to keep them out until mid November. 

19 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

That's a very valid point about snow. But also, if you're cold and not getting a lot of snow, people often still refer to it is mild. The last 2 years were not mild winters in the Midwest.

 Regarding warming over the last 100 years, it depends on location but clearly the East Coast is warming more than the lower Midwest. In fact, the lower Great Lakes show minimal warming although I suspect Chicago's cooling trend is due to location change.

Detroit warmed 0.9°
Cleveland warmed 0.6°
Toledo stayed exactly the same
Columbus warmed 0.1°
Indianapolis cooled 0.1°
Chicago cooled 1.3°
Milwaukee warmed 2.0°
Minneapolis warmed 2.6°
New york city warmed 3.2°
Boston warmed 2.6°
Buffalo warmed 1.5°
Wash DC warmed 2.8°
Burlington VT warmed 4.4°
 

Thats interesting. I wonder why from pretty much Southern Ontario eastward has warmed, skips Ohio, Michigan, Illinois and resumes again in Wisconsin and Minnesota. 

9 hours ago, Torchageddon said:

I waited for this thing to start cranking and it did slowly ramp up throughout most of the day til 8 pm but overall this was a big bust and I'm not impressed lol. At no point did I witness any blizzard conditions as forecast for my town and my winds never made it high enough. This is NOTHING like Jan 6 2014, it barely stands out but I would consider it a solid winter storm; I was expecting the basement to be a major winter storm and I don't know if I can even call this that by Christmas Day. The main issues are the same as written above, flake size far too small due to strong winds and lack of moisture. My temp got down to -11.6C and then stabilized with a wind chill of -22C. I doubt I got 40cm (for Fri) as thought - probably 20cm with drifts. The LES mode was totally different from what I expected and never got in the mod returns like the shoreline did and there isn't any bands near me like Parry Sound and Buffalo has. I don't know why my winds were crap other than the orientation but still with the strength of this low it shouldn't have been this zzzz. By 10:30pm the flizzard started winding down when earlier I expected raging blizzard status and a double dip for Eve which my hourlies still show bizz for 8+ hours later on .

Amazing that Hamilton got blizz but not me, that's a twist. There is some magic going on near Lake Erie and Ontario for sure in this storm.

I did notice areas way south were much colder than me like London and Windsor ON got windchills of -28 to -32 whereas I'm getting -22. Same with air temps.

ya the storm was a weird one and was more local and persons history of storms. Ive only lived in inner GTA until 5 years ago and now live in rural Ontario so for me this was my first actual blizzard. 

I also think media and general population is quick to put emotions into weather. Muskoka laughs at GTA winter storms saying Toronto is weak and in summer its Toronto laughing at Muskoka and Northern Ontario complain about average heat waves. 40-45C happens every summer in Toronto with nights staying above 21C but in Parry Sound, Sudbury, Timmins its all anyone would talk about (I work all over Ontario) 

Ontario almost has the exact same dynamic as northern states vs southern states in regards to winter and summer weather haha 

ended up being the best snowstorm I've ever experienced. Not often I see actual blizzard conditions. 

16 minutes ago, Frog Town said:

Nail in the coffin for the NW Ohio/SE Mich peeps...sorry.

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Latest radar, 0z model guidance, and surface observations
suggest that we are perhaps entering a perceived "lull" in the
precipitation along the arctic front, especially across NW OH
this evening as the upper-jet energy begins to arrive across the
Lower OH Valley which will lead to explosive cyclogenesis late
tonight into Friday. This may lead to lower snowfall totals and
overall impacts across NW OH. However, we are currently watching
an area of precipitation across SW OH that continues to
strengthen, noted by multiple surface observations of moderate
to heavy snow at times. This area of precipitation will work its
way north and east into the region later tonight in conjunction
with the strong, arctic front. This will be the area to watch
for any significant impacts with regards to snowfall rates
and/or blowing snow overnight and into the morning hours.

yikes. 

Just now, RogueWaves said:

Happy for ya guy, ride it over there! 

Toronto and GTA feel most of the forums pain. Unlikely to do much snow wise but hopefully winds make up for it 

4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said:

Yea, or at least the most impacted areas. To bad the GOM tap was cutoff or this thing could have been beyond crazy for the whole sub.

the eastern half was walking a fine line. Not sure if GOM was feeding moisture Detroit eastwards would be getting much snow