mississaugasnow

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Entirely a frozen event for NW WNY. Buffalo-Niagara Falls. 
Imagine these maps if it shifts another 50 miles SE. Those nutty totals are without any enhancement. Shudder. Lol

well I honestly gave up any hope of snow with this one so now I'm intrigued. Since GTA is riding the line Im also good for a 50 mile shift SE to get Buffalo-Niagara and maybe even Rochester into it. 

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pack took a pretty hard hit today.  Its getting really compacted now absorbing this rain tonight.  I still don't think it's losing that much water content overall, haven't noticed any increases on area creeks.  We hit the deep freeze again for a few days so should turn the leftover slop into a block of ice.  Then still up in the air a bit for back half of next week.      

noticed the same thing here. 38F and light rain. This is snowpack is taking a beating but still about a solid 4-6" on the ground. This last little bit will take some time to melt. 

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still time for the"press"..

A lot can change but at this point ive accepted the snow will be gone soon. If we can sneak out this storm ill be impressed and fully done with winter haha 

One more big time cold snap this weekend followed by warmth that will still take some time to melt the snow. 

I get the wanting winter to hang on but where we live just isnt far enough north. Toronto is a few days away from when the quick changes will overwhelm winter anyways. 

Toronto bottoms out with average high of 28F January 30th roughly, bounces around there for two weeks and todays average is 30F 

in 6 weeks the average high is 46F so winter is now battling an almost 3F average rise per week. 

23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Western NY has had a few more solid synoptic systems than here. Lake effect has also been more prevalent. My totals for the season are a bit skewed with two very fortunate lake effect events (Nov/Dec). We had the big sleetfest and then thaws are always on steroids here. I agree it's been nice not seeing the grass for a solid month straight. I believe all of you out there have about 18 to 24 inch snowpacks this winter, while here it's been hard to get to a foot. Again, I moved here excited for 130 inch averages and this is the 3rd winter WELL below normal. And as we know, I am an ultimate snow weenie. I moved here knowing it wasn't going to be the UP, but I also didn't expect it to be 3 consecutive winters of this. But, I know we've all had mostly "meh" winters together. It's just been more significant here because of what average is and how much below average we've been.

I dont know about Syracuse winter temps but I find your area and Buffalo similar to Erie PA. Tons of snow but retaining it compared to other snowbelts in the Great Lakes is much more difficult. 

Muskoka, Kincardine-Owen Sound and UP get dumped on, are much further north and have normally frozen lakes a warm front has to go over. You guys are wide open for gulf air to surge north. 

My cottage for example in Muskoka is 32F and Im at 42F. Downside is those places get even more screwed in about 6 weeks haha. It could be 60F at my house but 40F and heavy fog up in Muskoka 

lol seems like an interesting battle will brew in here. Im a big time snowpack guy and even with these brief warm ups the snowpack in WNY and GTA will be around for another 7-10 days minimum. Which historically has been when retaining snow on the ground starts to become difficult. 

March snow events where it snows 3-5" but gets blasted in the 28F and sun aren't interesting to me. So in the next few weeks I switch to big time rain events or big time 6-10" snow storms 

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Setup is there for flooding.  2.5-3” of SWE throughout the headwaters.  Very thick ice sheet on the creeks.  Mouth at the lake is frozen and I have not seen the cotter head out yet to ice break.  Rapid warmup and heavy rain would be a big concern.  But on a positive note haven’t had a good ice jam to chase in about 3 years now so bring it on!

Im actually hoping for that as well. 

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ugh. Why is everyone so excited to be done with winter…especially when we haven’t even had much of a winter here this season to begin with? It’s only 2/8. Do people want summer to be over by 8/8?

It’s bad enough that I have to deal with anxiety about today’s 40F temps eating away at the modest snow cover…and desperately wishing for the sun to go away. But then it’s even worse that others are actively rooting for this, and excited about the sun angle and dampness/warmth in the air as the inevitable end of winter occurs. Fine - but can’t it wait until 2/28??
 

Winter is not supposed to be comfortable or feel nice. People are supposed to be crying and begging for warmth and relief from bitter cold and snow. 

Maybe we should all live in international falls for a winter or two, to experience what winter should actually be like. 

 

By Mid August I start noticing that overnight lows that once stayed consistently above 60F are now mid 50s and the far northern parts of Canada/Mountains start getting the first sub 40F. I cheer/day dream about the upcoming fall in mid august when the averages quickly start diving. 

Long story short Winter-November 15th to February 15th in my mind, Spring February 15th-May 15th, Summer May 15th-August 15th and Fall August 15th-November 15th 

Its a weird way to look at it but at the start of each of those dates, even though firmly entrenched in their season the first signs of the upcoming one begin appearing. 

13 minutes ago, bowtie` said:

^It looks nice, but it is still too much snow.

I dont believe such a thing exists 

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another couple weeks and I will be there. Doesn't take much to get my winter fix in. I just hope we don't get 40s and cold, cloudy, and rainy like we've had the last few years in late March-early May. That's the most depressing weather there is. The last few years we've skipped spring right to summer. 

aside from a freak snowstorm in mid April, spring was nice in GTA. 50s and low 60s dominated the second half of March with I believe the hottest day getting to 70F back to back days March 24th and March 25th. Which is only about 5-6 weeks away 

46 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Last winter didn't even really start until around this time, so I keep thinking there's hope for this winter. But, I'm so skeptical just because of how the tracks have set up and the faaaaaast flow.

Looking back at last years photos to judge snowbank size haha. Last year mid February was packed with snow and created massive snowbanks. The thaw started almost immediately though and by end of February my piles were diminishing fast. March 13th I took the last photo of a tiny remnant baking in the sun haha. By March 20th Toronto had 7 days in a row around 55-65F with a severe thunderstorm warning

I know everyone wants winter to win out but now we're getting to the point in the calendar where changes will start pretty fast. 

I’m getting ready for hopefully a warm spring. One more storm but then let’s get going haha 

With over 6 inches of snow depth coming up to nearly 4 weeks in GTA I’m nearly over winter 

Ideally one more storm/cold outbreak but I’d love for 50s to start asap. I love Morchs haha 

2 hours ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I didn't actually lose much of my snowpack. I'd say I have about a foot of snow on the ground. Snowbanks are so high that it's hard to see when backing out of the driveway.

Nice! I have about 11" on the ground now. the last 5" though is pure cement. Last night during a walk you could still feel like the slush under the dry powder. 

After looking at the long range I think its almost a lock that Toronto and Buffalo have snow cover for all of February 

37 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

Just got back from a walk. Snowing steadily, but flake size is small. I'm at the border between Toronto and Markham.  Glad we are at least getting something out of this second wave. Congrats to the western and central New York posters!

Just wondering how much you got and how much you guys have on the ground now? 

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Heaviest band in WNY is from Orleans into Erie County. Possible lake enhancement.

I wonder how hard its snowing right on the edge north of toronto. 15F here now 

2 minutes ago, tim123 said:

I think Toronto get 6 inches from now to tomorrow 

As much as I’d love for Toronto to see that, that has about a 5% chance of happening and would be a surprise snowstorm for them lol 

more likely trace-2” (trace for northern suburbs, 2” for those along Lake Ontario)

Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Dude look at CC on RadarScope. It’s mixing down in Olean. Not far away at all. 

All I need is a 15-20 mile shift NW so let’s see. 
 

3.5” from wave 1 

1” all day from consistent light snow 

let’s see what falls from now-tomorrow morning 

11 minutes ago, SolidIcewx said:

Definitely well spoken. I was eyeballing a foot but at least it’s gonna look pretty outside for awhile. But ready for severe storms eh?

One of the local mets on twitter I follow said winter forecasting is much tougher compared to summer for a public perception point of view. In a heat wave only us weenies here will say hit 88F not 90F while the average Joe just says damn its hot. Rain is also much tougher to gauge. Ive never heard a buddy say wow only quarter inch of rain when they called for half inch haha. 

Everyone knows though if you made the slightly wrong call in winter. 

5 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

If that’s the real rain snow line, it’s surging through now! Things should start changing over fast 

Switched over to mix of rain-snow and 33F. I’m in that blob just north of Lake Erie between Simcoe and Buffalo up towards Hamilton. 
 

Enjoy NY! This is definitely rare storm category where most of the state cashs in! 

4 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

My temperature is now below freezing, around 30 or 31 F. Light snow.

If you check out radar scope it’s starting to look like Youngstown NY will transition before Hamilton Mountain (mount hope) 

throwing in the towel with this one now. I’ll come back and update when snow starts but I’m expecting storm total about 2” or 5cm. Probably biggest bust I’ve seen since I’ve moved here 4 years ago 

2 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

It's a shame they closed all the Friendly's restaurants in western New York. Used to love their sandwich melts and the "fribbles".

How’s the snow out in the city? Temperature has actually risen last 15 minutes here on the escarpment. 36F and heavy rain just outside Hamilton. EC tweeted they have to lower amount because mild air is hanging around longer 

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Yep. No snow tonight unless you live in far WNY

This is the heaviest rain I’ve seen in a while. I’m interested in all types weather/weather related issues so this will be interesting in a few weeks regarding spring flooding along the grand river. The snow pack seems to be absorbing most. Lost an inch though in the last 2 hours so down to 4” but it’s like mashed potatoes 

12 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Starting to stick even on pavement. Parking lot at grocery store getting icy.

North Etobicoke if I remember correctly? 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Here is approximate changeover timeline. I would think it would be in next 1-2 hours for you.

Yep. Thanks for sharing. Should be interesting to track. Ticked down to 36F at my place now.