mississaugasnow

Snow depth down to 4" with a temperature of 37F and light rain. 

This will most likely become a big glacier since its absorbing the water and not melting as fast as I thought.

Snow depth down to 4" with a temperature of 37F and light rain. 

This will most likely become a big glacier since its absorbing the water and not melting as fast as I thought. 

7 minutes ago, Jonger said:

This is my concern.

Environment Canada has cancelled the weather advisories for Toronto. Its rare for them to do it before the event has really started but shows how little impact they expect this storm to have. 

Original winter weather advisory was for 4-8" but now the forecast mentions more rain and max 2-4" for the event. 

Just now, vortmax said:

So, they aren't going with the RGEM it seems.

nah, judging by the newest update from them. Rain all of today with only 2-4" tonight and tomorrow. Not often they cancel an advisory they issued before snow even falls. Shows how little impact they expect this storm to have on Toronto and the suburbs 

haha Environment Canada has fully cancelled any advisories for Toronto and GTA. Im somehow still in a warning but I imagine that gets cancelled soon as well 

21 minutes ago, Toronto4 said:

I’m going for 4-6” for the first wave late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Highest snowfall rates will occur just after the changeover from rain to snow.

The second wave late Thursday afternoon into the evening is still a big question mark. From a total miss to another 4”. Hopefully models will provide more clarity later today.

Im in the warning and dont think I see that much haha. The transition events generally underperform here so I see where Ottawa Blizzard is coming from. 

Buffalo is talking about 4-6:1 ratios with wave 1.  Groundhog Day storms are cursed for GTHA haha. 2011 one fell apart, cant remember 2nd one and this one is turning out to be a run of the mill slop fest 

1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Yeah good luck getting to 2.7 million people

I mean I hate to nit pick here with the board but Toronto is the centre of the universe since its the largest city on the Great Lakes. So Columbus is actually looking to catch Toronto haha (Chicago has bigger metro though I think)

Im thinking Buffalo goes for advisory. Buffalo-Hamilton needed the 1st wave to be colder and instead were going to rain for most of it. Buffalo even mentions some awful ratios which means its all going to come down to the 2nd wave. 

Snow pack was putting up a good fight but temperature is 40F and rain. Looks like overall this system will end up being a net loss for my snow depth (started around 7" before today) 

46 minutes ago, WeatherMonger said:

I've lost my excitement from earlier, this is going to end up another, and typical, I-74 and north special.

Im weirdly in the same boat. Normally id be excited but just not excited for this storm 

44 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, I see it got up to 44-45 degrees in BuffaloHotWings today and still 40 degrees. Did you guys have much snowmelt there or did the low dewpoints keep it minimal?

I noticed the lower dew points help minimize melting. 37-38F but dew points in mid 20s allowed for a slow melt 

On 1/31/2022 at 3:57 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

I found @TugHillMattnew home 

Personally I think an ideal climate for me as I get older would be the Mid Atlantic coast. Much longer summers, winter is generally mild but they also generally snow every single winter. Add in a monster winter storm once in a while and weaker hurricanes....just my favourite type of climate 

3 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Seems like a good LEnS setup for you guys down there on the backside of the storm later Thursday. Some of the hi res models putting a maxima along the Niagara Escarpment.

I’m just outside mount hope on the mountain. I’m lucky now that living on the escarpment means I enjoy warmer springs and cooler falls (used to live along Lake Ontario) but after 4 winters here I’ve learned I’m about 2-3 km too far south towards Lake Erie to get good lake Ontario lake effect. It happens but I’m in a weird zone where I catch the tail end of Huron squalls more often, followed by Ontario enhanced and finally once or twice a year get hit from Erie 

It’s been a while since I’ve been so unsure about what’s going to happen in a storm. Anywhere from 3-12” is a realistic possibility 

1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I've got about 10-12" still left in my back garden.

Ya, you guys got smoked. The storm total here was only about 10-13" 

17 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Lol I never want it gone haha. Helps down the road for glacier. We have about 2" in shade and 1" in sun. Some bare and some 3" spots.

Its more 5-8" on the ground here so after the warmth and rain I expect 2-5" left which will turn into a glacier 

still only 35F here 

1 minute ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

You think they'll cancel the winter storm watch for Hamilton?

Probably not. I think they end up keeping it but saying 15-20cm instead of 20-30cm as currently posted. If we end up reporting 12-13cm at YHM its not a big hit to credibility. 

Well you guys down in CNY reeled this in, congrats haha. I will be bowing and throwing in the towel on this storm as it looks like nothing more then a run of the mill 2-5" snow for the GTHA over 

Bring on Spring! haha 

16 hours ago, Cary67 said:

Ok sitting at 12.5" here. Look to get small amts this week. Once we get past first 10 days of March not a big fan of late season snows

 

Pretty similar feeling. I enjoy deep winter and snowpack retention so I dont really care for March snows. When I hear the CBS March Madness song more times then not in my area its in the 40s, no snow, much longer daylight. Thats when I know im over winter and want spring to settle in. 

Ideal world Snow cover for most of February and then torch after March 10th 

6 minutes ago, 96blizz said:

RGEM still likes Canada. 
 

Is it because that’s who made it?

haha hope it happens but this storm has turned into a big dud for Buffalo northtowns-Hamilton. 

Im pretty much over winter in about 2 weeks so I hope the SE ridge flexes hard and we get 50s haha 

3 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm going with a final call of 4" for Toronto. Tough for me to say that when there was once so much potential. Still, after the 21" I received on January 17th, I guess I can't really complain.

ya, I agree. I think I sneak out 3-5" down here in Hamilton/Halidmand. Should be a nice spread the wealth 2-5" though from Kincardine-Toronto and Windsor-London should get 4-6". The next 5-7 days look like the snow won't be going anywhere so we start getting into talk of long duration snow cover which is rare (to a degree) for Toronto

1 minute ago, Jonger said:

There's a reason just about every "storm" ends up around 6 inches here. It's just what we do.

Expect 6 to 10. The warning will probably be adjusted down to that as well. Just watch.

Toronto busted that theory two weeks ago but ya were back. It was kind of weird for YYZ to have two winter storms produce over 12" and averages won out. 

I wasn't buying your average clipper talk but ya, for GTHA this will be a nothing storm. I am excited to pad the stats and get some fresh snow but unlikely my snow depth changes because of the melting/rain before. 

Either way I only have about 2-3 weeks left in the winter tank before I start cheering for big SE ridges and 50s/60s haha 

15 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

My call for Toronto is now 4". I think we miss the main storm on Thursday, and the changeover from rain to snow is later than expected on Wednesday.

Ya, mostly just replaces whatever snow melts from today-tomorrow. lol I hope whatever storm @LakeEffectKingmentioned stays suppressed as Im not home this weekend haha 

YYZ/Toronto is 2-3" 

Hamilton 3-5" 

Buffalo 5-8" 

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

With the NAM and RGEM doing what they did, setting aside the drier inter-wave period with the NAM, would have figured the GFS would have ticked north a bit.  Nope...opposite, total whiff.  That's modelology for ya.

Certainly not one to nit pick often but I’ve never found multi day snow events that interesting. Which is confusing since I love retaining snow pack haha. There’s something about that 12-15 hour storm that puts down 6-8” instead of 10” in 24-30 

The models are luckily keeping my expectations down. Could be a big storm or could be a run of the mill light rain to 3-5” event that happens every other November 

This is definitely what keeps EC from issuing watches so early haha. The moment they issued the watches and special weather statement my group chats started talking about it.