mississaugasnow

2 minutes ago, blizzardof96 said:

18z 3kNAM big hit for GTA with amounts near 10". Low tracks ~990mb through Erie, PA always seem to get it done around here.

Ill be threading the needle here in Northern Haldimand up by Hamilton regarding heavy snow. Though Ill be following the Grand River closely with the rainfall and snow melt. 

EC has me in the rainfall warning. Could/should be in rainfall warning with a winter weather travel advisory by tomorrow morning I think 

14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Another run with over an inch of freezing rain over BUF and all of Erie county

I have to imagine some winter storm watches go up for Erie and Niagara mid afternoon. 

wonder if Buffalo goes with winter storm watch. I could see a 2-5" snow event with enough freezing rain to warrant it. 

2 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Thinking with the trends maybe EC gets arm twisted into a watch. Even down in your hood and Niagara, the "warmer" NCEP solutions look like a decent ice storm.

You guys may get a good-great snowstorm out of this. Ill be keeping an eye though on Don River and other creeks and rivers. Buffalo mentioned 2-4" of water locked up in the snowpack and checking out the interactive snow maps on NOAA you can see most of the GTA has 1-2" with pockets of 2-4" 

The temperature plus heavy rain early Thursday should get rid of a lot and cause significant run off. 

Getting a bit more nervous for some serious flooding potential. 1-2 inches of rain and temperatures near 50F. The winds should help obliterate the snow pack as well. 

The second part of the storm has me getting an ice storm so ideally the front slows down and we get more rain. 

50F and heavy rain though will cause significant run off  so this is starting to look interesting for flooding in Grand River area. Possible ice storm/snow storm after which at this point I hope it stays rain as I want nothing to do with an ice storm. 

Wonder if EC puts up winter storm watches tomorrow. Tough but potentially high impact event for them to forecast 

17 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

True. I could honestly do without the rain, but it looks inevitable at this point.

I would rather rain compared to freezing rain. Ideally rain to snow 

6 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Heavy rain in Muskoka?  Anything's possible but that would require an slp track through Huron or something, which even the GFS isn't showing.

haha ya. Check out the weather networks forecast. 15-20mm of rain Wednesday/Wednesday night and then flurries with 5cm Thursday. 

Looking at the models and then looking at the forecast and not sure what they see. 

2 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Early thinking 75% EURO/UKIE/CMC, 25% GFS compromise.  As has been pointed out, this is very similar to GHDIII and I believe that's the blend between the NW/SE camp that ended up being reality.

Would yield a tremendous ice storm imby.

Supposed to head up to Muskoka this weekend. May go up a bit earlier in the week if it looks to be a good one. 
 

The models are showing some big snow but forecasts (weather network, EC) are showing heavy rain. Think it ends up being a good storm up there? 

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS showing temps near 70 next week

Ideally delay it one more week and I’d love that haha. 

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

I’m heading up to Muskoka next weekend so I’d take that 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

We're a go big or go home crowd.

2 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Hasn’t Toronto had two great years now? Obviously, it’s relative. A Toronto winter would have me:

Haha. Ya, I dont think most of this board could handle a normal Toronto winter which is about 40" 

4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Theres also no such thing as big storms in Toronto, so you should be fine

I missed the actual big one because I was down in Florida. Theres just something thats changed in the last 5ish years where I switch to spring come mid-late February. I definitely hate warm November-Januarys but couldnt care less about February ideally first half snowy second half thaws out. March its fully go historic or stay warm 

1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The only storms that matter are big storms...

 

haha 

4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Clown time

Im honestly over big time storms so sign me up for 3-5" across the GTA and a delay in the pattern change. Sounds weird but delaying a SE ridge by even 7-10 days in mid to late Feb makes a big difference. Also allows us to keep snow pack just a bit longer

I completely wrote off this storm and yet Toronto is back in depending on the model. 

8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Entirely a frozen event for NW WNY. Buffalo-Niagara Falls. 
Imagine these maps if it shifts another 50 miles SE. Those nutty totals are without any enhancement. Shudder. Lol

well I honestly gave up any hope of snow with this one so now I'm intrigued. Since GTA is riding the line Im also good for a 50 mile shift SE to get Buffalo-Niagara and maybe even Rochester into it. 

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Pack took a pretty hard hit today.  Its getting really compacted now absorbing this rain tonight.  I still don't think it's losing that much water content overall, haven't noticed any increases on area creeks.  We hit the deep freeze again for a few days so should turn the leftover slop into a block of ice.  Then still up in the air a bit for back half of next week.      

noticed the same thing here. 38F and light rain. This is snowpack is taking a beating but still about a solid 4-6" on the ground. This last little bit will take some time to melt. 

11 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Still time for the"press"..

A lot can change but at this point ive accepted the snow will be gone soon. If we can sneak out this storm ill be impressed and fully done with winter haha 

One more big time cold snap this weekend followed by warmth that will still take some time to melt the snow. 

I get the wanting winter to hang on but where we live just isnt far enough north. Toronto is a few days away from when the quick changes will overwhelm winter anyways. 

Toronto bottoms out with average high of 28F January 30th roughly, bounces around there for two weeks and todays average is 30F 

in 6 weeks the average high is 46F so winter is now battling an almost 3F average rise per week. 

23 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Western NY has had a few more solid synoptic systems than here. Lake effect has also been more prevalent. My totals for the season are a bit skewed with two very fortunate lake effect events (Nov/Dec). We had the big sleetfest and then thaws are always on steroids here. I agree it's been nice not seeing the grass for a solid month straight. I believe all of you out there have about 18 to 24 inch snowpacks this winter, while here it's been hard to get to a foot. Again, I moved here excited for 130 inch averages and this is the 3rd winter WELL below normal. And as we know, I am an ultimate snow weenie. I moved here knowing it wasn't going to be the UP, but I also didn't expect it to be 3 consecutive winters of this. But, I know we've all had mostly "meh" winters together. It's just been more significant here because of what average is and how much below average we've been.

I dont know about Syracuse winter temps but I find your area and Buffalo similar to Erie PA. Tons of snow but retaining it compared to other snowbelts in the Great Lakes is much more difficult. 

Muskoka, Kincardine-Owen Sound and UP get dumped on, are much further north and have normally frozen lakes a warm front has to go over. You guys are wide open for gulf air to surge north. 

My cottage for example in Muskoka is 32F and Im at 42F. Downside is those places get even more screwed in about 6 weeks haha. It could be 60F at my house but 40F and heavy fog up in Muskoka 

lol seems like an interesting battle will brew in here. Im a big time snowpack guy and even with these brief warm ups the snowpack in WNY and GTA will be around for another 7-10 days minimum. Which historically has been when retaining snow on the ground starts to become difficult. 

March snow events where it snows 3-5" but gets blasted in the 28F and sun aren't interesting to me. So in the next few weeks I switch to big time rain events or big time 6-10" snow storms 

3 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Setup is there for flooding.  2.5-3” of SWE throughout the headwaters.  Very thick ice sheet on the creeks.  Mouth at the lake is frozen and I have not seen the cotter head out yet to ice break.  Rapid warmup and heavy rain would be a big concern.  But on a positive note haven’t had a good ice jam to chase in about 3 years now so bring it on!

Im actually hoping for that as well. 

4 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

Ugh. Why is everyone so excited to be done with winter…especially when we haven’t even had much of a winter here this season to begin with? It’s only 2/8. Do people want summer to be over by 8/8?

It’s bad enough that I have to deal with anxiety about today’s 40F temps eating away at the modest snow cover…and desperately wishing for the sun to go away. But then it’s even worse that others are actively rooting for this, and excited about the sun angle and dampness/warmth in the air as the inevitable end of winter occurs. Fine - but can’t it wait until 2/28??
 

Winter is not supposed to be comfortable or feel nice. People are supposed to be crying and begging for warmth and relief from bitter cold and snow. 

Maybe we should all live in international falls for a winter or two, to experience what winter should actually be like. 

 

By Mid August I start noticing that overnight lows that once stayed consistently above 60F are now mid 50s and the far northern parts of Canada/Mountains start getting the first sub 40F. I cheer/day dream about the upcoming fall in mid august when the averages quickly start diving. 

Long story short Winter-November 15th to February 15th in my mind, Spring February 15th-May 15th, Summer May 15th-August 15th and Fall August 15th-November 15th 

Its a weird way to look at it but at the start of each of those dates, even though firmly entrenched in their season the first signs of the upcoming one begin appearing.