mississaugasnow

13 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

3/3 was a wound up storm with blinding snow and lots of thundersnow in SE MI. Not a lot of cold air.

The trends have been better for SE MI and Southern Ontario. Liking the low going just south of Lake Erie on the last run of the GFS 

31 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I don't either. It was 1.7" of snow. Before that would be mid-March.

Interesting, I dont shovel that lol. For me has to be 3-4" before I shovel. 

36 minutes ago, nwohweather said:

Damn that's a beast of a storm, but the track is a tad unbelievable at the moment. Arkansas-Indy-Toledo on a storm bombing out? If it really enters the lower GL at around 975 MB then I'd expect more of a South Bend-Lansing low track

I noticed that as well. Gave me some hope though. 

4 minutes ago, KokomoWX said:

Temperatures will be marginal at best for some parts of the 1/8-1/10 storm IMBY (north central Indiana and south towards Indy).  Both the GFS and ECMWF show any single digit and teens are 8+ days away which are always skeptical given past history of forecasted cold which tempers as we draw closer.  

Ya, it’s mostly rain for me where I live. A few more weeks and I’ll be ready for Spring 

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm not sure what will end up happening, but the gfs has been hellbent on having an absolute parade of systems 

Interesting I wonder if this is the set up that happened in 09-10

Niagara/Toronto proper miss south on some and get rain on the cutters. 
 

Got 3 days in a row with some snow cover though which is a nice win. That New Years system gave just enough 

33 minutes ago, Harry Perry said:

He emphasized on the potential being there for something big and that a lot is to change in the coming days, which I agree with. 

Ya, that’s a good way to put it. But some in Ontario are starting to say make sure you have snowblowers and shovels ready it’s about to become real cold and real snowy 

28 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

I’m in some skiing groups on FB and there is already talk of a big dog around 1/9 like it’s set in stone. The average person doesn’t know not to take the GFS verbatim a week out. 

Yep, and then what is a bit annoying is the general public doesn’t understand why Toronto or Chicago aren’t buried in 1-2 feet of snow and -10F 

The pattern is definitely better and I’m hopeful for a mid size 3-6” storm followed by 20s for highs in the next few weeks. That's where my expectations are currently lol 

6 hours ago, KokomoWX said:

I know the models are showing a lot of potential in the next couple of weeks but I'm already confident I'll be on the side of cold rain and disappointment.  I figured I'd get started early with my prediction.  

I’m just wanting a solid 3-6” storm that then stays on the ground for at least a week. The hype about this new pattern has spread to social media so this will be a bit funny if nothing happens in my region. Lots of talk of monster winter storms and frigid air. 

6 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

1948-49 was a warm snowless winter here. 13.7" Detroit, 13.6" Toledo, 14.3" Chicago. Not sure what happened in Toronto, but sounds like a lot of good luck lol.

 

1965-66 is actually a winter that is on many people's analog list this year. It featured a warm snowless december followed by an abrupt early-mid january turn towards bitterly cold weather which lasted into mid february. For Detroit, it was the definition of cold and dry with the only saving grace that we did manage to keep white ground throughout that month long CAD stretch while the east coast was pummeled with storms 

Rochester in 1948-1949 saw 50.9” and 103.2”in 1965-66

Albany in 1948-1949 saw 44.2” and 67.1 in 1965-66 

Just now, michsnowfreak said:

1948-49 was a warm snowless winter here. 13.7" Detroit, 13.6" Toledo, 14.3" Chicago. Not sure what happened in Toronto, but sounds like a lot of good luck lol.

 

1965-66 is actually a winter that is on many people's analog list this year. It featured a warm snowless december followed by an abrupt early-mid january turn towards bitterly cold weather which lasted into mid february. For Detroit, it was the definition of cold and dry with the only saving grace that we did manage to keep white ground throughout that month long CAD stretch while the east coast was pummeled with storms 

Toronto is far enough east that I might take a look at Rochester-Albany in 48-49. Could be some inland runners? 
 

I’m excited for the second half of winter because I do think we see a turn towards more snow and cold and even if we hit top 5 least (25”) it will feel like a snowy second half 

7 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroits at 2.5". The top five lowest:

12.9" - 1936-37

13.2" - 1881-82

13.7" - 1948-49

15.2" - 1918-19

15.4" - 1965-66

Toronto saw 49.6” in 1948-49

And 52” in 1965-1966 

wild the difference!

Just enough distance between Detroit and Toronto to have different record low years. I think 2009-2010 you guys had an okay winter and obviously the opposite happened in 1936-1937 

1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said:

Detroits at 2.5". The top five lowest:

12.9" - 1936-37

13.2" - 1881-82

13.7" - 1948-49

15.2" - 1918-19

15.4" - 1965-66

So for you guys to have a bad year you really have to have a bad year lol 

One storm in March can make sure you don’t finish top 5. Toronto doesn’t have that luxury 

Looking at this list and it’s pretty crazy that with records from 1937 onwards that 4 of the least snowy winters are in the last 20 years. Real rough stretch from 2006-2012 

45 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

There's too many factors in play, but I would say to give an example, earliest I could talk futility would be late February with above average temperatures forecast for the foreseeable future and 10 inches or less of snow on the season so far. Detroit's least snowy winter on record was 12.9" in 1936-37. 

What is Torontos top 5?

Wow 1936-37 saw about 24” (had to find that as Pearson starts a year later) 

 1st 2011-2012 saw 16.8”

2nd 2009-2010 saw 20.6”

3rd 1952-1953 saw 21.2” 

4th 2006-2007 saw 23.7” 

5th 2015-2016 25.9” (1936-37 but that wasn’t Pearson) 

Currently Toronto has seen 4.1” so we would need to see a pretty snowy mid January to mid April to make sure we don’t crack the top 5 this year 

46 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

I say this every year at this time, and this December's pattern was about as bad as it gets, but personally I think it's way way too early to entertain. We have nearly 4 more months of measurable snow potential. I don't think it's too early to think we finish below average snowfall, or that this will definitely not be a favorite winter of anyone's lol, but wayyy too early to talk futility. 

When would you start to talk futility? 

If I remember correctly April 2016 was coming out of Nino and Toronto saw a 4” storm in early April and a few more 1” event. I believe that April was our snowiest month that winter. 
 

That December also saw almost no snow. That winter ended with around 25” with 8” coming in April. So I feel pretty good starting to talk top 5 least snowiest winter for Toronto in the next few weeks.  

A couple weeks ago we discussed all time low snowfall records being possibly broken. Though it still is really early are you starting to at least entertain the idea? 

I think Toronto ends up around 20" on the season which is well below average but not record low. Just enough events in the second half of winter to make sure we don't hit record low.  Going to be interesting though. 0.5" expected NYE 

8 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

No buds that I've seen here. Its your typical dark gray winter landcsape but without snow and with green and brown grass. Not sure how familiar you are with trees, but some trees winter buds are big, and during winter mild spells people sometimes confuse them for budding (ie magnolia trees). Not saying your wrong, just an observation. 

Ya, I haven't seen any tree buds personally. The gardens on the other hand I have seen and I have seen insects out flying around. Not to often I see those end of December. 

Are you guys starting to see some buds on trees? Noticed Ontario twitter has been sharing photos of really green grass, tiny buds and some very early spring gardens trying to come to life.

8 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I can confirm. The two months have finished very close a few times, but at Detroit officially, December has never finished warmer than November (it should not this year either).

Ya, December will end up colder than November here in Toronto. November is so far 3C warmer and that’s without the next few days coming up closer to average 

33 minutes ago, Stebo said:

That's more than fine, I'd rather have a warm spring than not.

Yep, should also help get some decent lake effect into February with the cold air. 

Going to be real tough for the Great Lakes to see average ice coverage as well. 

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

You're both right and you both know it. Pattern change is not necessarily immediately accompanied by a change in sensible weather. Operationals depict going from WAD to seasonable and dry. However, I am encouraged by the fact that at least there is a better opportunity for interesting weather down the road and in fact the Euro may begin to show something in a couple of more runs, but in the short-term, yeah, zzzz away.

Ya, it's nice to see the change to more seasonal weather. Certainly opens up the door to at least the chance of some snow. The other hand is that it looks pretty boring and the chance of getting anywhere close to normal snowfall on the season is leaving the station fast. 

A few consistent weeks of actual winter in late January-February is what I'm banking on. Couple storms (3"+) and some consistent snow cover 

44 minutes ago, hardypalmguy said:

perfect

are your palms still unprotected? I put mine in the garage but might bring them out for Christmas Eve and Christmas haha 

Looking like a nice 1-3” event for GTA. With tomorrow also staying below freezing will allow for a nice Christmas feel.